The mare Connect Me has been a solid earner for Ashburton-based Gary Rich and can add to her already impressive tally of five wins when she lines up on the poly track at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Sunday.

Wednesday’s scheduled meeting on the track was abandoned due to torrential overnight rain that flooded the course and even Noah would have been rounding them up two-by-two as a precaution.

Connect Me has yet to win on the synthetic surface but has finished second twice in three starts and was staying on well behind On The Double in soft ground at Hollywoodbets Scottsville last time out.

That said, she takes on a seriously competitive field and one can make out a case for many of the runners.

Jackson Wells finished close-up in her first two starts after ‘winning’ a barrier trial and when Mark Dixon stretched her to a mile at her third start on the poly, she cruised to a five-length win.

The opposition on Sunday is far stronger but she is an improving filly with a good draw and a handy galloping weight.

Arizona Sunset is seldom far off the pace and kept on well for a deserved win on the poly last time out. That form has worked out well with two subsequent winners behind her so she must be in with a strong chance.

Philae was much improved last run behind On The Double and Connect Me but does appear to be better on the turf which is a concern for her supporters.

Collabro may not have achieved the heights of his half-brother and champion Legal Eagle but he has still managed five visits to the winner’s enclosure and can make that six for Dennis Bosch come Sunday. He had a difficult draw last run in the soft at Scottsville and came from a long way back to finish two lengths off the winner. He switches to the poly with a good draw and he does appear to have found his best with the addition of blinkers.

The mare Oloye has been kept to the poly track by Brett Crawford since arriving in KZN from Eric Sands and obviously has some issues. She was given two barrier trials before making a smart return to proper racing in a useful field of fillies and mares and she has the benefit of a light weight.

Ralph The Rascal was a recent maiden winner but won well enough to suggest that he will be competitive off his light weight while Karoo Lark and Mount Anderson also appear to have scope.

In the last, Rocket Fire was sent out favourite last run but was slow to begin and cast a shoe in the running. He can make amends. Mokoko has been trying further but the blinkers go on and his form is consistent while Bravo Zulu is always game and has been consistent of late and can do better than his last run when sent out a luke-warm favourite.

By Andrew Harrison

Long-time favourite Viva Rio rates no more than a tentative selection for the ARF Commemorative Cape Derby at Kenilworth’s Prawn Festival meeting tomorrow. The form of the 18-10 chance is much the best – his Cape Guineas second sees him rated a minimum of 4.5kg clear of the rest – but this is a bad race for favourites.

Every one of them has been beaten in the last six runnings when the winners have included a 28-1 shock as well as others starting at 16-1 and 13-1 – and the gelding’s stamina could well have a hole in it. True, he is by Oratorio who won the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes over this trip, but most of the wins chalked up in the first three generations on the dam’s side have been over 1 200m.

This could open the race right up. King Of Gems (9-1) won the Concorde Cup and can be excused his disappointing effort in the Guineas as things didn’t go his way that day. Sachdev (9-2) also has strong form claims while Politician-winning stable companion Silver Host is preferred by both Richard Fourie and punters who backed him from 11-2 to 15-4 during the week.

The best outsider could well be Golden Ducat at 16-1. This is a half-brother to both Hawwaam and Rainbow Bridge and last time’s Pinnacle fourth was his first run since being gelded. He is almost certainly a lot better than that.

Kasimir is a confident choice to repeat his victory in last year’s Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes when he became the first successful outright favourite in six seasons. In the Cape Flying Championship he was a race short, and not fully tightened up, but he was still less than a length third to Russet Air and his main threat – at least so far as the betting was concerned – was removed when Run Fox Run was scratched yesterday with an abnormal blood count.

Of course Russet Air could do it again, particularly with Aldo Domeyer once more in the irons, as could Bold Respect who was only beaten on the nod while Chimichuri Run just might be a little bit better than last time’s fifth would suggest.

The favourite in the Vasco Da Gama Prix Du Cap has been successful in three of the last four years but this looks a hotter renewal. The 2-1 favourite Front And Centre is under something of a cloud after failing to fire for no apparent reason in the Majorca and the same applies with Santa Clara. Golden Chance has claims on her Sceptre third but she was beaten more than five lengths.

I prefer to take a chance with 15-2 shot Larentina who was fourth in the Cape Fillies Guineas and who ran as if this could be her trip when finishing like a train under top weight in a 1 200m handicap four weeks ago.

It seems pointless looking beyond Erik The Red in the Kepu Cape Of Good Hope Nursery. The price (6-10) may look prohibitive but the way he won the Met day Listed race – making most and seemingly not all out at the finish – was particularly impressive.

Delta Queen is favourite for the Capetown Noir Kenilworth Fillies Nursery after toying with the opposition on debut but Stuck On You (third to Erik The Red in a good field) is the one with the form in the book and accordingly she gets the vote.

By Michael Clower

Turffontein Standside’s nine race meeting tomorrow includes a Pinnacle Stakes event and two Graduation Plates which have attracted class horses. The Pinnacle Stakes event over 1 100m is very difficult to read as many of the horses will not be at their peaks and, furthermore, the ones who make most appeal have landed disadvantageous low draws. 

Double O’ Eight is in fine form and has not only landed a good draw of eight but has 4kg claimer Philasande Mxoli aboard. Rebel’s Champ has landed the unwanted number one draw. However, he has won here from a similar draw before. As a younger horse he did not enjoy racing among other horses but preferred to be on his own.

He can thus take the shortest way home tomorrow and should not be concerned about racing in isolation. His class could do the rest.

Mardi Gras is a top class sprinter who has always struck as one who would get better and better with age. He duly won with ease in November over 1160m here despite returning from a six month layoff.

He did have a high draw that day so could afford to take a sit and run on. Tomorrow it will be tricky from draw two and apprentice Luke Ferraris is going to have his work cut out. Mighty High is the best weighted horse and would have benefited from her last outing, which was her first of the season.

She has a reasonable draw of six. Basadi Faith won her first four starts as a juvenile including the SA Fillies Nursery and would have needed her recent comeback from a suspension for the epistaxis she suffered in the Grade 1 Allan Robertson last May. She jumps from draw five and has 2,5kg claimer Jeffrey Syster aboard.

Mombela can’t be ignored as he proved last time he enjoys a bit of cut in the ground when finishing second to the top sprinter Mr Flood in the Grade 3 Tommy Hotspur.  His low draw might not be that much of a disadvantageous as he hung in badly in that race.

In the first of the Graduation Plates, for fillies and mares over 1400m, Gaian Glory has a tough draw of eight out of eight but this Visionaire filly relaxes well in the running and has a fine turn of foot. Piere Strydom will be aware that in the Emperor’s Palace Ready To Run Cup over this course and distance she made up a lot of ground far too quickly and consequently hit the front too soon.

He will be able to afford to sit on her for a while in the long straight.

Kay Tee Perry beat the promising Cornish Pomodoro cosily second time out over 1160m after showing good cruising speed and a fine turn of foot. This Argentinian-bred is by Orpen, who was top class over six furlongs as a two-year-old and later became a useful miler. Kay Tee Perry thus should enjoy the step up in trip and from draw two is the dark horse. Stage Dance has good form, is drawn in pole over a suitable trip and wears a first time tongue tie.

Gallic Princess charged late to win last time over 1160m with first time blinkers on. Considering she settled well with the headgear on and stays this trip she can be dropped out from draw six of eight and then run on. Frosted Steel is officially the best weighted horse. She still has to prove she enjoys this trip and now gets blinkers on from a tricky draw of five. In the second Graduation Plate over 1800m Heart Stwings has caught the eye from day one and this distance suited horse is now coming into her own.

Secret Dream lands a good draw over a suitable trip and as she is 3,5kg better off with Wild Date for a half-a-length beating over 1600m, so she should reverse the form on paper.

However, the concern is she has choked up a couple of times in her races, including once with her now regular tongue tie on.

By David Thiselton

To take a bet go to www.tabgold.co.za or www.trackandball.co.za

Front And Centre is on a recovery mission in the Vasco Da Gama Prix Du Cap at Kenilworth on Saturday after inexplicably flopping in the Bidvest Majorca.

Last season’s WSB Cape Fillies Guineas winner started third favourite for the Met day Grade 1 but finished with only three behind her. The course vet reported that Anton Marcus’s mount came back with abrasions on her left hind, suggesting that she had a bit of a rough passage, but Brett Crawford is not so sure.

He said yesterday: “We didn’t find much wrong. She just seemed to have no gate speed, she was never really travelling well and she produced no finishing effort.”

It was the first time that the four-year-old had raced with blinkers and, although she has been declared to wear them again, Crawford is in two minds about fitting them a second time.

The bookmakers seem to think that Front And Centre will run considerably better this time and most have her favourite at 2-1 with Santa Clara (two and a half lengths in front of Front And Centre when ninth in the Majorca) vying for second favouritism – at around 6-1 – with Cartier Sceptre third Golden Chance.

Crawford runs three in the ARF Commemorative Cape Derby in a bid to win the race for the third time following Jackson (2012) and Edict Of Nantes three years ago. Aldo Domeyer’s mount King Of Gems is the highest rated, and the shortest priced, of the trio and he wears a tongue tie for the second successive race.

“He makes a bit of a noise and we thought the tongue tie would assist him,” explained the Philippi trainer. “He has been doing well, he looks well and his work has been good.”

The Concorde Cup winner is a 17-2 chance with Viva Rio hot favourite at 17-10 ahead of the Justin Snaith pair Sachdev (5-1) and Silver Host (11-2).

By Michael Clower

It would appear from media reports that one of the triggers that precipitated the violent conduct by a small group of irate punters at Hollywoodbets Greyville last week, was primarily aimed at jockey Anton Marcus.

However, his favourite in the first race fractured a leg and the Marcus-ridden favourite in the second, Fergie’s Rock, pulled up lame and unplaced which appeared to spark the protest.

Among other grievances that have subsequently emerged was that Hollywoodbets, the racecourse sponsors and leading bookmakers, also sponsor trainers and jockeys that these punters contended could lead to races being ‘fixed’.

Hollywoodbets have vehemently denied all allegations and there is no evidence to suggest otherwise.

Marcus, who is not sponsored by Hollywoodbets and rides freelance for the most, is one of the sought-after jockeys for his proven expertise in the saddle and consequently rides many more fancied horses than his weighing room counterparts.

He does not always get his pick of rides, “I’m often turned down,” he says, but it stands to reason that his judgement, or that of the trainers who often request his services, may not always be on the mark. In other cases, his mounts may be having an off day or develop some other physical niggle during a race, a fate that can befall any other horse or rider.

Marcus, like all other jockeys, earns his basic salary through riding fees so out of necessity of putting bread on the table, will take rides even if their chances of winning are remote.

The list of possibilities is endless but the simple fact is that his mere presence in the saddle trims the odds on his mounts, whether they have the form to win or not, and are often ‘false favourites’.

The ‘educated’ punter is well aware of this and does not fall into this betting trap easily.

Marcus currently has a national winning strike rate of 30.4% for the season so far, a trend that goes back a decade, while log-leading jockey Warren Kennedy has an 18% winning strike rate. Those percentages increase on their home courses with Marcus on 32.2% and Kennedy 19.4%.

While you can read whatever you like into statistics, Kennedy is riding for his first National Jockey’s Title and the more rides he gets the better his chances. The fact that he still boasts a winning strike rate of close to 20% is testimony to his ability. Marcus, a three-time National Champion and not chasing the title, is more judicious and has 69 winners from just 227 rides. Kennedy has 165 winners from 898 rides.

The national average of winning favourites at all of the country’s courses, Zimbabwe and Mauritius included, for the past three years is constant at around 30% that equates to close to one in every three favourites winning.

By Andrew Harrison

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