The current pandemic has turned our world upside down.  SARS-CoV-2, the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, is a “novel” virus, which means that it is new and nobody on the planet has been exposed to it before.  This also means that nobody has immunity to it.

Only one of two scenarios will end this nightmare:  a reliable vaccine, or achieving a “herd immunity” of about 70% of the population.

Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.

Therefore, the timeline to return to “complete” normal will be about 18 months from now, because it is unlikely that the vaccine would be available in South Africa sooner (albeit, multiple agencies are fast tracking the process, so we might all be surprised).  The SARS outbreak, from 2002 till 2004, which was also a Corona Virus and also started in China, took 2 years to “burn out”.

What does this mean at a very practical level?  Well, until the vaccine arrives, most of us will become exposed and develop immunity.  Obviously, people at high risk must avoid exposure at all costs.  People at high risk will only be “safer” from infection when herd immunity is established.

Life must go on and we cannot exist in a Level 5 lockdown indefinitely.  The sooner we have herd immunity, the better.

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 amongst passengers on two ships, the Diamond Princess cruise liner and the USS Theodore Roosevelt warship, has led to several, interesting studies being conducted.

These studies have helped us to learn and understand that more than 50% of positive cases will be asymptomatic.  In other words, people who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 will still remain completely healthy and not experience any symptoms despite “fighting” off the virus and developing immunity.  In the case of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the “healthy”, infected group was around 60% of the crew, which is completely understandable because the average age on board was younger relative to the age of passengers on the Diamond Princess.

The Jockeys are young (less than 60 years old) and healthy.  All of the Jockeys in Johannesburg were tested for SARS-CoV-2.  Almost all tested negative.  The small number that tested positive were completely asymptomatic and remain healthy.  There is no doubt that they contracted the virus outside of racing venues, because these were closed during the lockdown.  The Jockeys live far apart from each other, in different municipalities and rode work somewhat occasionally, at different venues.

It must be expected that if you were to randomly test any group of people in South Africa right now, you would find positive tests.  It is not currently known what percentage of the population has developed herd immunity.  Estimates from some Virologists range between 3% to maybe 20% in Cape Town, a “hotspot” area.  In 18 months, herd immunity should be at around 70% of the population.

Until then, based on the timing to achieve heard immunity and/or have access to a vaccination, the current practice of social distancing and sanitisation is recommended.  We expect the number of new cases to increase and, unfortunately, we also anticipate an increase in the death rate.

That being said, people under 60 years of age with no co-morbidities (chronic diseases), have more chance of dying in a car accident than succumbing to SARS-CoV-2.

We know that some are more at risk than others.  The risk factors for contracting SARS-CoV-2 and experiencing severe symptoms include the following:  People older than 60 years of age (the risks for people older than 80 is predictably much more significant), moderate to severe chronic lung diseases, poorly controlled diabetes, poorly controlled hypertension, serious heart conditions, chronic renal disease on dialysis, chronic liver disease, severe obesity (Body Mass Index over 40), immunocompromised patients, (chemotherapy patients, patients with uncontrolled HIV, bone marrow or organ transplants), advanced pregnancy (>28 weeks).

The current racing structure (behind closed doors) is well-suited to be safer than any other industry right now.  Only the Jockeys that tested negative are racing, for a limited number of hours over a few days a week.  The chance of contracting COVID-19 is much greater outside of the racetrack venues; at any shop for that matter.

There is no need to panic!  Drive carefully on the roads.  For most of us, that is far more dangerous.  If you have any of the above risk factors, isolate yourself from society completely, if you can.  As for the rest of us, we should continue to follow the recommended public health practices of social distancing and sanitisation.  It must be said that the sooner we become immune, the better for everyone, including the very old and those at high risk.

Ends

The large number of horses needing to race after the lockdown with only 12 currently permitted to run, has created a huge demand for places in fields across the country.

The Western Cape have a huge number of two-year-olds which are ready to run, but many of them are unfortunately being eliminated at final declaration stage.

There have been requests, particularly from smaller trainers who are at a disadvantage from a numbers’ perspective, to assist in this regard and after numerous options were considered, Kenilworth Racing Board Director, Jonathan Snaith, came up with a solution.

“There are five race meetings still scheduled for the Western Cape this month and Jonathan has managed to get a group of companies and individuals to sponsor four of these race meetings, with Kenilworth Racing Co-chairman and Director, Robert Bloomberg, having already put his hand up in sponsoring a meeting in his personal capacity, thereby facilitating an extra race at each meeting,” explained Racing Executive Patrick Davis. 

“Eight races have been programmed per meeting, but we will now be able to add an extra Maiden Juvenile Plate to each meeting. This will effectively provide an additional 60 runs for the juveniles this month.”

Kuda Holdings will sponsor the race meeting on 9 June, Klawervlei Stud and Justin Snaith on 16 June, Jonsson Workwear on 21 June, Robert Bloomberg on 27 June and EasyEquities the meeting on 29 June. 

“These are very testing times for most businesses in South Africa and racing is no exception. The generosity from all these sponsors to assist racing’s stakeholders under the circumstances is a wonderful gesture,” said Davis. 

If there are any other individuals or organisations who might also be interested in supporting this initiative into July, please contact Faeeza Heuwel, Chief Operating Officer for Kenilworth Racing, at 021 700 1614 or email faeezah@kenilworthracing.com

Ends

The National Horseracing Authority (NHA) confirms that in line with its commitment to ensuring the safety of all the participants, it has established extensive Covid-19 Protocols and Procedures, for the Resumption of Racing behind closed doors.

This document has been carefully considered using international best practice, in addition to considering our own requirements according to Government Protocols.

The NHA has appointed Mr Arnold Hyde, Racing Control Executive, as the Chief National Covid-19 Compliance Officer, to facilitate that these Protocols and Procedures are strictly adhered to, ensuring that Racing is conducted behind closed doors in a responsible and safe environment for all Stakeholders. All enforcement officers report directly to the Chief National Covid-19 Compliance Officer.

The NHA has assembled a panel of dedicated and appropriately qualified people to its Covid-19 Surveillance in Racing Panel, which includes Miss Hazel Kayiya (NHA Racing Administration Executive), the NHA Investigating Officer, Mr Riaan Janse van Rensburg, the Chief Stipendiary Stewards in the respective regions, Messrs Lyle Anderson (Highveld), Ernie Rodrigues (Western Cape) and Deanthan Moodley (KwaZulu-Natal), the Racing Operators’ Health and Safety Personnel, Messrs George Shirinda (Highveld), Preston Chetty (KwaZulu-Natal) and Mrs Faeeza Heuvel (Western Cape) and Medical Experts, which include Dr Schalk de Kock (NHA Laboratory Director), Dr Richard Albrecht and Professor Ian Sanne (Highveld), Dr Poobalan Pillay (KwaZulu-Natal), Dr Jan Lapere (Eastern Cape) and Mr Adrian Todd (Western Cape – Managing Director, South African Equine Health Protocols).

The National Horseracing Authority will carefully monitor this Protocols model and may make amendments if and when necessary.

ENDS.

Do It Again, a huge price at 11-1 for his history-making bid to win a third Vodacom Durban July, may gallop with Peninsula Handicap winner Belgarion at Summerveld on Monday as plans for Sunday’s racecourse gallop have had to be scrapped.

Justin Snaith said yesterday: “Belgarion has never been to (Hollywoodbets) Greyville and a gallop against Do It Again there would also have told punters where the latter is for the July.

“But I have been informed today that all course gallops have been cancelled. Obviously the authorities have their reasons, and I respect them, but I am hoping they will change their minds. If not, I will have to gallop the pair of them at Summerveld on Monday.”

Belgarion is 15-2 third favourite in the pre-nomination July betting with Hawwaam and Rainbow Bridge jointly heading the market at 5-1

Rainbow Bridge, beaten only four-tenths of a length in last year’s July and just half that when second to One World in the Sun Met, was entered but not declared for Sunday’s   Independent on Saturday Drill Hall Stakes.

Eric Sands said yesterday: “He galloped very well last week and I could have run him but he’d had a respiratory problem and I didn’t want to risk setting him back. He will gallop again on Monday and go for the Rising Sun Gold Challenge (June 28) and then the July.”

The five-year-old will be ridden in his KZN races by Warren Kennedy, running away with his first jockeys’ championship. Kennedy partners Rainbow Bridge’s Cape Derby winning half-brother Golden Ducat and Driving Miss Daisy for Sands in Sunday’s two Guineas races. “The distance will be a bit sharp for both horses but they have come on a lot,” said the Milnerton trainer.

The Adam Marcus-trained Vardy, winner of the L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate but badly hampered in the Met, is 11-10 favourite for the Drill Hall with last year’s Cape Flying Championship winner Kasimir next on 2-1.

Missisippi Burning, stable companion of Vardy and winner of the Cape Fillies Guineas, is 2-1 favourite with the sponsors for the World Sports Betting Fillies Guineas and the Snaith-trained Sachdev is 3-1 favourite for the colts’ equivalent.

Run Fox Run booked her ticket for the SA Fillies Sprint at Scottsville by proving much too good for the opposition in the Pinnacle Stakes at Kenilworth yesterday and coming away in the final furlong to beat 20-1 shot Fabian rather more easily than the half-length verdict might suggest.

Greg Cheyne, who rode her out with nothing more forceful than hands and heels, said: “She is special and absolute class. She knows what to do and when to do it. It’s a privilege to ride a horse like her.”

The Ridgemont filly’s only defeat came in the Cape Flying Championship on Met day when she was just over a length fourth to Russet Air (third yesterday)- and apparently there were excuses for that.

Brett Crawford explained: “She pulled up after the race with a snotty nose and that had to have had some type of effect on her performance. Certainly she couldn’t have been at her best.”

Cheyne won three of the eight races and the training honours went to Candice Bass-Robinson (also three) but the ride of the day was surely that of Morne Winnaar on the Glen Kotzen-trained Sockeroo in the 1 400m handicap.

He loomed up a furlong out but found his path blocked by the equine equivalent of the Berlin Wall. He switched right, right again and then a third time. On each occasion the gaps were closed as tightly as the jockeys’ face masks. With 100m to go he was still only fifth. Suddenly his prayers were answered and Winnaar grasped his opportunity as gratefully as Moses crossing the Red Sea. Even those who had backed the winner from 14-1 to 7-1 could hardly believe it.

BLOB Michael Clower’s followers celebrated Cape Town’s racing return to action with two winners from just four selections, showing a profit of R21.10 to a R10 level stake.

By Michael Clower

Run Fox Run, beaten only once in six starts, can celebrate the return of racing to the Western Cape by taking the TAB Pinnacle Stakes at Kenilworth today.

Greg Cheyne’s mount met her Waterloo when starting favourite for the Cape Flying Championship on Sun Met day and finishing just over a length fourth to Russet Air who she meets on the same terms.

There is no logical reason why she should reverse the placings except for a suspicion that she might be still on the upgrade. “I think she is looking for a little bit further but coming out fresh could be in her favour,” says Brett Crawford who had two of the first three winners when racing resumed in Durban on Monday. “She hasn’t had a grass gallop but that’s the same for everybody. I have done as much as I can with her at home, she has done very well and she looks great.”

The Philippi trainer is also expecting good runs from Pacific Trader (5-1) and Bold Respect (6-1). “They have quite a bit in their favour and they like to run fresh, especially Pacific Trader.”

But the bookmakers reckon that Candice Bass-Robinson’s Milnerton yard houses the main dangers to the selection who was favourite at 5-2 yesterday morning. Russet Air (28-10) and the Bidvest Majorca winner Clouds Unfold (33-10) are the two highest rated horses in the race. Apparently not too much notice need be taken about Aldo Domeyer opting for the latter because he is now retained by Drakenstein and this is the filly’s prep for KZN – she will run in either the Tibouchina or the Rising Sun Gold Challenge before going for the Jonsson Workwear Garden Province.

“I think Russet Air has probably got the better chance over this 1 000m,” says their trainer while adjusted merit ratings suggest that the race lies between the top five.

The Crawford-trained Winter Flight opened odds-on for the opening Social Distancing Maiden Juvenile but he started coughing and has been scratched. The vote goes to newcomer Jet Dark. At one time you could get 9-2 but he is now 16-10 favourite and is held in high regard.

“Every time we put him on the grass before the lockdown he surprised us and every time we worked him with a horse we think highly of he beat him,” Justin Snaith said yesterday, adding: “I think our horses are quite ready – follow the yard.”

The selection is by Trippi, cost R200 000 and is closely related to the Mercury Sprint runner-up Night Trip. Another that Snaith mentioned is Hyde Park (5-1) who takes on older horses in the Stay Safe With A Mask Maiden (race three). Hello Tomorrow is favourite but I prefer to take a chance with Domeyer’s mount Anmer Hall (7-2) who ran green on debut.

Glen Kotzen, in double KZN form on Monday, may take the Juvenile Fillies (race two) with I’m A Lady who has most to fear from Stuck On You, Fiftyshadesdarker and French Fling.

By Michael Clower