David Thiselton
The Hollywoodbets Durban July betting market had a it of a shake up with the Peter Muscutt-trained Isivivane being the biggest mover from 50/1 to 25/1 after winning the Gr 3 WSB 1900.
A win in the 1900 usually earns a place in the July final field, but competition will be stiff for a final field berth this year and Isivivane’s relatively lowly merit rating might work against him as things stand, although the handicapper has a few options.
Isivivane had a nett merit rating one point lower than both the second and third placed horses, Regulation and Trust, and carried the same weight as them under the merit rated band conditions and he beat them by 0,60 and 0,65 lengths respectively, so if either of them is used as the line horse he won’t go up by more than two points from his current 104 rating.
If The Ultimate King is used as a line horse Isivivane could get three points. The former was half-a-kg better off than Isivivane and was beaten 0,85 lengths.
Imilenzeyokududuma faced Isivivane on level terms and was beaten 1,95 lengths, so him as the line horse would mean 4 points for Isivivane and could mean one point for both Regulation and Trust.
Native Ruler was a tie 1,95 lengths fifth but was 1,5kg better off with Isivivane so him as the line horse could mean seven points for Isivivane as well as four points for both Regulation and Trust.
Native Ruler finished fifth in the WSB Met having finished sixth in last year’s July, so might be a suitable line horse.
On the other hand it was a comeback run, so he might have needed it, and The Ultimate King might in that case be a more appropriate line horse as he was fit from a 0,80 length third place finish in the Gr 2 Colorado King Stakes over 2000m having finished a 10,30 length six in the Gr 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge.
If Isivivane gets seven points he will go up to 111, which will be interesting because last year’s WSB 1900 winner Selukwe ran in the July off a 111 and finished third. Furthermore, Selukwe was 2kg under sufferance carry 54kg, whereas, as things stand, Isivivane will be in the handicap carrying 52,5kg off a 111.
There was no pace in Saturday’s WSB 1900 and Trust was able to get over from the widest draw in the ten horse field to set a sedate pace.
However, he picked up the pace at the 800m mark, meaning he would have been used to some extent coming up the hill towards the straight, an underestimated energy sapper.
Trust stayed on gallantly in the straight under vigorous urgings from Serino Moodley, but Isivivane, who had sat it the box seat slowly wore him down to get up late.
Regulation ran on strongly from midfield and was unlucky as he was caught wide throughout. He looks underrated at 105 and is deserving of a place in the July field, but might now have to rely on the Gr 3 Cup Trial.
In a conditions plate over 1600m on the day involving a number of July horses Eight On Eighteen was the surprise early leader as Okavango was held up.
Okavango then moved around horses to take the lead while Note To Self was content to sit in fourth place in the six horse field while Mocha Blend was last.
In the straight Okavango continued to lead while Eight On Eighteen was waited with.
Note To Self was not asked any serious questions until the 200m mark by which time the bird had flown.
Mocha Blend moved up from last and let down well when asked at the 200m mark, a fine run after a long layoff.
Eight On Eighteen put in a bold bid after moving up well, but Okavango fought back to win by 0,30 lengths, with Note To Self beaten 0,90 lengths in third.
Mocha Blend was beaten two lengths in fourth and 102 rated Ascalon Dancer and 95 rated Down By The River were beaten 2.05 and 4,35 lengths respectively.
It seems unlikely the handicapper will touch any of the merit ratings in this race although Note To Self, rated 118, did run above his merit rating compared to Eight On Eighteen (129) as he would have received 8kg from him in a handicap and only received 6kg.
At Turffontein on Sunday Jan Van Goyen made a cracking comeback in a Pinnacle Stakes race won by the useful Pressonregardless.
He had traffic problems in the straight and only went down by 0,80 lengths.
It was his first run as a gelding and he was a touch out at the weights on official merit ratings, so considering he will come on from the run it was a run that put him back on track after a couple of disappointing runs.
