Our Mate Art can finally start realising his potential by winning the Highlands Stud Winter Guineas at Kenilworth tomorrow.
The highly regarded Australian-bred missed the rest of the Cape season after chipping a splint bone in the Selangor but returned after a 19 week lay-off to take second in a Pinnacle at the beginning of the month only to be seemingly stymied by a bad draw here.
But that all changed on Wednesday afternoon when Bernard Fayd’Herbe, as so often in the past, was first to spot that the ground on the stands side had become faster and he came home alone on the winner. In the next race they all swung wide at the turn.
African Night Sky (Liesl King)
If – as seems probable – conditions are much the same tomorrow Aldo Domeyer, successful on Marinaresco 12 months ago, won’t need a Marcus-type flying start to get into a decent position.
He could have most to fear from Elevated who is going to be a good price. He comes from one of the smaller yards and his recent form is positively discouraging. But he was a sick horse after the Derby and patently not ready last time. Nothing else here can match his fourth in the Cape Guineas.
“He is the best horse in the race,” says Riaan van Reenen, “and, while he is not 100%, he is very close to it – maybe 95 or 96% – and that could be enough.”
Newlands is best on ratings and Joey Ramsden is bidding for his third Winter Guineas in six seasons. The gelding has some useful form but not useful enough to jump out at you as the likely winner and the owner’s retained rider Anton Marcus is on Turbulent Air instead.
Marcus has won three of the last five Winter Guineas and his strike rate at Kenilworth this season is a barely credible 37%. In other words he has almost two winners from every five rides. Dare I say it, though, Turbulent Air looks more like one of the statistical three losers.
True, he was running for the first time for four months when only just behind Our Mate Art (who was giving 1.5kg) in the April 1 Pinnacle but he had been well beaten in races like the Langerman and the Cape Classic.
Stable companion African Night Sky has always looked a good horse in the making and, if that Pinnacle form is correct, he could get into the shake-up.
Piere Strydom is a high-profile booking for I Travel Light who finished a length in front of African Night Sky in the CTS Mile but was well beaten in the Cape Guineas. Victory for any of the other eight – Loadshedder included – would be a shock of seismic proportions.
Who will head the market is as difficult to predict as the winner but it’s important because the favourite has won five of the last six runnings. As regards the rest of the card, Fresnaye and Silver Mountain are stand-outs.
By Michael Clower
