Last year’s Gr 2 Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas proved the pecking order of the crop only begins to be sorted out after this event, considering Trophy Wife finished second off the second lowest merit rating, so outsiders cannot be ignored in this alternate first leg of the Triple Tiara.

The ruling favourite for Saturday’s renewal, Negroamaro, who has a plum draw of three, was flying late in the Gr 3 Three Troika Stakes over 1450m last time out to finish a close up second.

However, a detractor to her current odds of 75/100 with Betting World could be the proximity of Juxtapose, who finished just over half-a-length behind her and was finishing just as strongly, a notable imp

rovement from her 7,25 length third to Negroamaro in the Gr 3 Fillies Mile. She was receiving 1kg from Negroamaro, but being by Judpot out of Sunsational, who won two Gr 3 races at Kenilworth over 1800m and 1400m respectively, the tough Turffontein mile should be ideal. As a hold up horse who settles well, her wide draw of 13 shouldn’t be too much of a disadvantage.

A detractor on paper to Juxtapose’s form is her failure to win a three-year-old fillies MR 89 handicap over the 1400m of the Turffontein Standside course off a merit rating of 89 in her previous start. However, it was run at a canter and turned into a sprint, so she did well to run on from behind with topweight for a 0,8 length third. Gauteng Fillies Guineas contender Jungle Mist also did well to finish a neck second as she was unsettled in a handy position, although she was receiving 3,5kg from Juxtapose.

Juxtapose, 12/1 with Betting World, should be good value each/way on the Tote, which will pay four places as things stand.

How often have Geoff Woodruff outsiders been ignored on this day? He has a phenomenal record on big Turffontein racedays and his Western Winter filly Christmas Carol comes into the race off the back of three wins on the trot from 1400m to 2000m. An obvious detractor is her 1600m handicap win being achieved off, effectively, a mere 72 merit rating. However, Louis The King won the Gauteng Guineas by 5,25 lengths off a merit rating of 94 two years ago, showing how much improvement Woodruff is capable of extracting. Furthermore, “King Louis” did it in testing going, which brought fitness to the fore, a factor which will always favour the Woodruff yard. There is 40mm of rain forecast between Tuesday and Saturday this week so the scopey Christmas Carol, who is a full-sister to Castle Tankard winner Winter’s Night, could well relish the tough test it will present.

Another 25/1 shot who comes in under the radar is Bella Sonata. She is rated by the Gavin van Zyl yard and was found to have pharyngitis after her 3,7 length seventh in the Three Troikas, so is better than that. She had proven her liking for the Standside track before that with a facile victory over older horses in a 1400m handicap off a merit rating of 78. She quickened well in the Three Troikas, but her effort quickly petered out, indicating she was not herself.

However, her stablemate Frosty Friday is shorter in the betting and has top jockey Muzi Yeni aboard. This well-bred Western Winter filly is unbeaten in her last three and an interesting point is last time out, when running on strongly from a handy position to win a Graduation Plate over 1450m on the Inside course cosily, she thrashed Jungle Mist by seven lengths, despite giving her 3kg. On collateral formlines this brings Frosty Friday into the race with a serious chance and she has also proved she stays this trip. She does have a tough draw of 14 though and is 12/1 in the betting.

Jungle Mist was caught wide in the race against Frosty Friday and interestingly produced her best performance next time out over the same course and distance when settling properly for the first time, albeit right at the back. She flew for a close second and on lines through Intergalactic and Tahini looks good longshot value on Saturday at odds of 50/1.

She’s A Dragon is second favourite for Saturday’s race at 7/1 and certainly caught the eye in the Three Troikas. She was initially outpaced in the straight, but then picked up and stayed on resolutely for a 2,2 length fourth, so is likely to relish the step up in trip.

The connections who are likely to be viewing the weather forecast with particular glee are those of Persian Rug, a giant of a filly who stayed on for a 3,1 length fifth in the Three Troikas. She threw away a Gr 1 victory by stopping while approaching a shadow in the Thekwini Stakes at the end of last season, but still picked up to run third. The form of that race had not worked out well until fourth-placed Flying Ice finished second in Saturday’s Prix du Cap. However, Persian Rug has palpably not been suited to the hard going which has blighted the Highveld for most of the season. It is no coincidence she improved with the more forgiving going of the Three Troikas and the Mike de Kock-trained daughter of Ideal World could well be a factor.

Bookmakers are taking no chances with KZN raider Princess Varunya, who will relish the long straight even if the distance is a bit short for her. They have priced the solidly built Australian-bred filly up at 10/1. Anthony Delpech is a master of the Turffontein Standside track and this filly is likely to be relaxed in the running and running on strongly at the finish.

By David Thiselton