Tevez attempts to win the Cape Merchants for the third year in a row at Kenilworth tomorrow and no-one knows how to land this hotly competitive handicap better than the Mike Bass stable which has won seven of the last 17 runnings.
Aldo Domeyer’s mount has followed the script that worked so well last year and the year before, reappearing in the October pinnacle – he was third in 2013, fourth last year and sixth this time – and then going straight into the Merchants. No second run after a rest problems with this horse. Also he has only gone up three points in the ratings since last season’s win.
“Tevez has come on (since the Pinnacle),” confirms Candice Robinson. “But at the weights I think Line Break could be the pick of our three. He ran well in that Pinnacle and he is a bit better off with Exelero.”
Bass, whose third runner is the Fairview scorer Tomba La Bomba, has long held Line Break in high regard and the yard now thinks he could be a sprinter even though he is by Dynasty. In what is a wide open race he is the one that makes most appeal. He has a light weight and a cracking good, even if still under-rated, jockey while his low draw is a plus. The sprint course is evening out but the latest penetrometer analysis shows that the ground is still fractionally faster on the inside to the middle.
No Merchants winner has carried more than 60kg in 15 years which stacks the odds against Same Jurisdiction, 5-1 favourite in the TAB sheet forecast. “This is a bit short for her but the concern is the amount of weight,” says Duncan Howells. “She could run into the money.”
Exelero looks much more likely to start favourite but that is not exactly a plus – every one since 2001 has been beaten. However MJ Byleveld’s mount has bounced back to his best and, although raised 3kg for his Pinnacle win, he is still weighted to beat those that finished behind him. He is also the best age – five-year-olds have won six of the last 14.
“That was the maximum they could have put him up. Had it been an ordinary race he would have gone up more,” says Vaughan Marshall. “I think he will run very well.”
Dennis Drier’s Cape Town contingent are beginning to run into form and for a few weeks last season Generalissimo held the 1 200m course record. “He may need it,” says the trainer, emphasising the word may, “but he is doing very well.”
Mister Matchett started slowly when third to Exelero three weeks ago and is now 1.5kg better. However Chris Puller says he didn’t lose very much ground that day.
Gulf Storm, fourth in that race, could pose a bigger threat while stable companion Sail South (seventh) and Happy Forever (ninth) did lose ground at the off. The latter has since been dropped a kilo.
Asstar (eighth) has a chance – he still looks as if he has yet to reach his potential – while Zambezi River has won half his ten starts and has a back-to-form genius in the irons. But it’s too short for King Of Pain and Double Whammy has surely been off too long, Triptique is 1.5kg under sufferance and for once the Snaith runners are hard to fancy while the much-travelled Talktothestars attempts what would be an amazing inter-province hat-trick and will be a big price.
By Michael Clower
Picture: Aldo Domeyer
