Dean Kannemeyer had an important 10 o’clock phone call yesterday morning with Fred Crabbia, owner of It’s My Turn, and the latter instructed him to run the five-year-old Dynasty gelding in the Vodacom Durban July.

This was bad news for the borderline horses as It’s My Turn won Saturday’s Grade 3 Track and Ball Derby in good fashion and panellists will have to seriously consider him for the July final field.

He finished a 2,35 length fourth in the July as a three-year-old and a 1,4 length eight last year, both times carrying 55,5kg, so those results will count in his favour as he only carries 55kg this year.

The one statistic which will count against him was the strength of the field on Saturday, as he was well in at the weights.

On the other hand he won comfortably by 2,25 lengths. Kannemeyer said It’s My Turn had pulled up well. The competition for places in this year’s July is tighter than ever.

The horses who have certainly booked their places are African Night Sky, Do It Again, Majestic Mambo, Elusive Silva and Coral Fever, while those who have likely booked a place are Fiorella, Made To Conquer, Abashiri, Secret Potion and Liege. That leaves eight places to be fought out by 28 horses who, in ante-post betting order, are Tilbury Fort, Dark Moon Rising, White River, Pack Leader, Platinum Prince, Yakeen, Royal Crusade, It’s My Turn, Cascapedia, Gold Standard, Crowd Pleaser, Star Express, Matador Man, Rocket Countdown, Ngaga, Social Order, Head Honcho, Sabina’s Dynasty, Perovskia, Strathdon, Flichity By Farr, The Slade, Glider Pilot, Mambo Mime, Girl On The Run, Roy Had Enough, Deo Juvente and Roy’s Riviera.

The easiest of those to eliminate are Glider Pilot, The Slade, Roy’s Riviera, Girl On The Run, Mambo Mime and Deo Juvente. Those whose last runs made them logical targets for elimination include Perovskia and Flichity By Farr.

Social Order’s fourth place in the Jubilee and Head Honcho’s fourth in the Cup Trial would have dented their chances, while Matador Man’s third in the WSB 1900 might not be good enough, despite him having been unlucky. Platinum Prince could also be eliminated on those grounds as he was beaten by Social Order in the King’s Cup, by Matador Man in the WSB 1900 and his subsequent third in the Cup Trial might not have been enough.

That leaves 16 fighting it out for eight places.

The chief difficulty for the panellists will be assessing class versus good handicap performance, because after all the race is a handicap of sorts.

Those who have performed well in Grade 1 events during the season are White River, Star Express, Pack Leader, Gold Standard, Royal Crusade and Roy Had Enough. Some of these have not been placed in those events, but did perform to a high rating.

Among the above’s final sixteen Yakeen, Star Express (Grade 3 Victress Stakes), It’s My Turn,  Sabina’s Dynasty (Grade 2 Gerald Rosenberg Stakes) and Cascapedia (Garde 3 London News Stakes) have won Graded events this season. Yakeen won the traditional July qualifying race, the Jubilee Handicap, but last year the winner of that race was left out of the July. If Yakeen does get in it will be difficult to leave Tilbury Fort out, who finished a shorthead behind him and ran to the same rating.

Dark Moon Rising finished second in the Grade 2 WSB 1900 and Crowd Pleaser was second in the Grade 3 Cup Trial, both traditional July pointers, Rocket Countdown finished second in the first two legs of the Cape Winter series and Strathdon finished a narrow second in the Grade 3 Lonsdale Stirrup Cup.

The prediction for the final 18 in weight order is: Coral Fever, Abashiri, African Night Sky, Elusive Silva, Liege, Cascapedia, Star Express, It’s My Turn, Do It Again, Majestic Mambo, Fiorella, White River, Pack Leader, Tilbury Fort, Yakeen, Dark Moon Rising, Made To Conquer and Secret Potion. Gold Standard and Roy Had Enough were the toughest to leave out as they were both staying on in eye-catching style in the Grade 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge and ran to ratings of roundabout 115.

By David Thiselton