Act Of War is as short as 4-10 in the Betting World forecast for tomorrow’s Kuda Matchem Stakes but this Durbanvile feature is a favourite’s graveyard and nine of the last ten have been beaten.
Joey Ramsden’s star has over six lengths in hand on his best form and master-starter Anton Marcus is almost guaranteed to make light of the colt’s eight draw. A gallop on the course last weekend satisfied his trainer that lack of Durbanville racing experience won’t be a handicap either.
However he has not raced for five months and, although the Cape Guineas winner was kept in work at Summerveld over the winter, his racecourse absence just might make him vulnerable.
Ramsden, who won this with the great Variety Club four years ago, does not agree and says: “He is pretty fit. I wouldn’t let him out if I didn’t feel he could do the job.”
Surprisingly there are no three-year-olds in the line-up – ten were entered – and only two other trainers are represented. Justin Snaith, successful with Changingoftheguard in 2012, runs five with Sean Cormack’s mount Alpha Pegasi marginally the best on ratings and a forecast 7-1 chance.
“Alpha Pegasi will run well but I think Heartland (6-1) will probably be our main hope,” says Snaith. “But, really, it’s a toss-up between the five and much will depend on which one handles Durbanville the best.”
Snaith, in tremendous form so far this season, is also of the opinion that the favourite could be vulnerable – “Particularly at Durbanville which is a place that tames lions. Here it’s not always the best horse that wins but the one that acts best on the course.”
Mike Bass, bidding for his third Matchem in eight years, runs four and Sail For Gold could be the one to floor the favourite. In the Winter Guineas, when Act Of War returned from three months off, he ran the Ramsden hotpot to a fighting length and a quarter on these terms. He is race fit after winning over 1 300m here a fortnight ago and looks value at the forecast 8-1.
Candice Robinson confirms that Grant van Niekerk’s mount has the best chance of the stable’s quartet but says the hat-trick seeking 20-1 shot Sheer Trouble “is in great form at the moment and I think he will be right there.”
Favourites have a much better record in the Diana Stakes, winning four of the last six. Dual Grade 1 winner Inara scored with incredible ease here a fortnight ago and the stable confirms that she has come on since.
She is sure to be odds-on and she should certainly go in again but punters should not take too short a price. Stable companion Come Fly With Me is 6kg better for two lengths and in the opinion of the handicappers Inara has only 2kg in hand at the weights.
By Michael Clower
Picture: Act Of War (Liesl King)
