The Gr 1 Maine Chance Paddock Stakes has a chance of going back to KZN for the third time in the last four years as the Duncan Howells-trained Same Jurisdiction is deservedly the highest merit rated horse in the race, but a question mark is posed by the combination of the draw of 16 and the distance of 1800m.

Howells duly regards that factor as the only concern and said, “As far as her preparation is concerned, it couldn’t have gone any better.”

The brilliant Mambo In Seattle filly was dropped out from a wide draw in the Gr 1 Jonsson Workwear Garden Province Stakes over 1600m, despite it being a field of 15 on a tight course, and her exceptional turn of foot then won her the race. Of further interest was that she was possibly the only horse who won going down the inside that day. She will almost certainly be dropped out again over this longer trip. She was caught late in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Classic over this distance at Turffontein last season, despite jumping from a plum draw of two, which suggests the mile is likely her best trip.

However, looking at that SA Fillies Classic performance there are three factors which give reason to believe she will stay the trip on Saturday, despite the wide draw. Firstly, she is a year older and therefore stronger, secondly Turffontein is a tougher course than Kenilworth due to the hill they have to come up around the turn, and thirdly Turffontein is at high altitude which makes it an even tougher test.

The Dennis Drier-trained Beach Beauty won the Paddock Stakes in both 2013 and 2014 and Same Jurisdiction will be hoping to wrest the trophy back for KZN from one of her likely chief market rivals on Saturday, the Mike Bass-trained Trippi filly Inara, who won the race as a three-year-old last year.

By David Thiselton