Divine Grace the one to beat

PUBLISHED: 17 September 2015

Andrew Fortune

There is an eight race meeting on the Vaal sand today, a venue where value can often be found.

In the first over 1000m, Ronin Warrior is a by Kahal and is a half-brother to the fair sorts Silva Hawk and Red Rover and he doesn’t have much to beat, although he will prefer further in time. Magic has improved since being beaten by three of the other contestants over course and distance in July and should go close. From that race Gold Comet is well exposed after 17 starts and only three places, Song From Seattle has made breathing noises in both starts to date, and Mendoza’s Melody has not impressed in two starts since. Edgbaston could improve on his debut effort but a concern is he made a breathing noise. Tzitzikama Fire has a place chance having run two fair races over course and distance. Noah From Goa is a half-brother to the like of Guy From Dubai and looks likely to need further on pedigree.

In the second over 1450m Beaufort Sea is by Fort Wood so should love the sand. He has fair form on turf from 1200-1600m and his wide draw should not be too much of a problem considering he has Andrew Fortune up. Seven Single’s decent debut on sand over 1200m behind a well regarded sort was followed by a reasonable effort over 1600m on turf, although he was well beaten in that race by Beaufort Sea. Bullion Bay made late head way last time out over course and distance in a similarly moderate event to run a close second so has to be considered from pole position.  Battle Of Arcole does have breathing issues so will likely appreciate the step down to the course and distance of his best recent run. Marsden could earn if bouncing back to his best but his last three runs from similarly wide draws have been poor which is a concern.

In the third over 1600m Nurse Harriet is by Windrush so should love the sand and she is drawn well over the same trip of her last two fair efforts on turf. Angel’s Smile pulled up lame last time after a 1450m event on the sand but if reproducing her previous 1600m run on turf she could earn here. Carole Bouquet ran a fair race last time over 1450m on the sand, but a concern is that this is her second run after an eleven month layoff.

In the fourth over 1000m Ballerini ran a cracker last time over course and distance behind two promising sorts when under sufferance in a Pinnacle Stakes event and if she reproduces that here back in a handicap she will win. Easy Street ran well over 12000m in her first three starts before disappointing over 1400m, so is interesting making her sand debut over this trip. Wintry Night has a good sand pedigree being by Western Winter and has not been unduly punished by the handicapper after easily winning her maiden in her third career start over this course and distance, so she could do well despite having been well beaten on turf by Easy Street when showing pace on debut over 1200m.

In the fifth over 1200m Flag Of France is off a competitive merit rating and is 2,5kg better off for a 3,25 length beating by Shine Tiger over course and distance in his penultimate start. Shine Tiger disappointed last time but is re-associated with Craig Zackey who rode him to a convincing win over course and distance in his penultimate start, albeit from pole position whereas he now has to jump from the same seven draw as in that last run. Cosmic Tom, well beaten by Shine Tiger three runs ago when not himself, represents an in form yard and is well drawn over a course and distance he has gone close over in his last two starts. Formal Request has landed a good draw over the course and distance of his facile win in his penultimate start and he showed next time out over 1400m that he was up to his raised merit rated mark by only being caught late over 1450m. Return To The Sun is drawn in pole and has dropped down the merit ratings so could use his early pace to gain a place.

In the sixth over 1450m Wishful Heart is likely stretched by this trip, but has won over it before and is a progressive sort, so could be the one to side with considering the astute judge of pace Andrew Fortune is aboard. Brad’s Surge is drawn in pole as opposed to the draw of six when a nine length second over course and distance last time and he could go close as the runaway winner of that race looks a decent sort. Rough Justice is 1,5kg better off with Brad’s Surge for a 2,2 length beating in that aforementioned race and has another good draw so should also be concerned in the finish.

In the seventh over 1450m Divine Grace, ridden by Fortune, is off a competitive merit rating and was run out of it over 1600m by a decent sort in his last two so looks the one to beat over this step down in trip. River Run packs a strong finish and is likely to be a big runner from a good draw under promising 1,5kg claimer Callan Murray. Seven Kingdoms has a good sand pedigree being by Sarge and is well drawn over the course and distance of his easy maiden win.

In the eighth over 2000m Dover Beach likely runs off a capped merit rating having scooted in by ten lengths in his penultimate start on the sand over 1800m so could follow up.  Isosha ran on late over 1800m on the sand last time and just failed so should be right there from a good draw under Gavin Lerena. Inala has run well in two starts on the sand from 1450m to 1600m and stayed on over 2000m in his penultimate start on turf, so should also be involved in the finish.

By David Thiselton

Picture: Andrew Fortune