Combat Muster the one to beat

PUBLISHED: 24 October 2018

S'Manga Khumalo (Nkosi Hlophe)

The Vaal Inside track stages a ten race meeting tomorrow and the exotics look the best way to play it as the racing will generally be competitive.

The first leg of the Pick 6 is the highest rated race on the card, a MR80 Handicap over 1400m.

S'Manga Khumalo (Nkosi Hlophe)

S’Manga Khumalo (Nkosi Hlophe)

It is a tricky race but Lone Survivor has won two of his four starts and looks to have talent. He can rise above his current 71 merit rating and S’Manga Khumalo keeps the ride over a step up in trip he should enjoy as he was staying on over 1200m in both of his last two starts. He has a low draw which is usually favourable at this track. Shortstop is distance suited and has dropped down to a competitive merit rating. He has a fair draw of seven and Dennis Schwarz knows him well. Chapel Jive doesn’t have a great record over this trip to date but has been seen to stay on well over shorter before so must be considered. Only To Win has been disappointing in her last two starts but ran some crackers before that. She has been lowered in the merit ratings to a competitive mark and has to be considered despite being up against the boys and having to jump from a potentially tricky draw. Blue Diamond Road is a consistent sort who has a good record over this trip and he has also been dropped two points from his last race so has a chance as long as the high draws are not too disadvantageous on the day. Cutting Edge is a talented individual but has his problems and he has plummeted from a merit rating in the 90s down to a 74 so he is interesting having his first run for a new yard over an ideal trip. William Nicol is better over 1200m but has run second three times over this trip so is another to consider from a nice low draw off a competitive merit rating.

In the first leg of the Jackpot Combat Muster could be the one to beat. He has had tough tasks in his last two starts in Assessment Plates and has not been disgraced. Back in a handicap here over a trip he stays from a nice low draw he can go close. Trip To Paradise lost one length over this trip last time and ran on well to be beaten just 1,95 lengths and with Strydom now up from a nice draw of seven he can go close off a one point lowered merit rating. Evolver is a talented individual who has been kept to further trips but he should be finishing strongly. Streetwear is back to his best trip and is only three points higher than his last win. Sovereign Rein has plenty of ability and is distance suited but has a tricky draw. The reserve runner Volcanic Sunset has always struck as one with some ability and from a plum draw over an ideal trip must be included if he gets into the field.

In the sixth race over 1600m Wine Festival brings Cape Town handicap form and horses from that stronger centre often have suppressed merit ratings so she is the one to beat from a good draw. Elegancia has a good draw for a change and is over her correct trip so can bounce back to form as she has undoubted ability. Bell Tower has shown ability and should be coming into her own being by Ideal World.

In the seventh race over 2400m Psychic went close in his only start over this trip and has a fair draw. Desert Sunset, Brand New Cadillac and Mighty And Magic have ability over this trip and have to be included too.

In the eight race over 2400m Glamarous Scandal is back in a handicap so should go close having had a tough task at the weights last time in an Assessment Plate. Goede Hoop also has to be included.

In the last leg of the Pick 6 over 1800m Ossetra is a progressive sort who is the one to beat and Itsmydarlin and Excalibur’s Return are the dangers over a trip which will suit. The risk averse can include New Zealand who has landed yet another tough draw but does wear first time blinkers, which can help her get to the front easier perhaps, and It’s Not Over is also worth considering from a good draw.

The first leg of the PA is a tricky 1400m maiden but Esemess caught the eye last time over this trip and the improving sorts Tidal Tussle and Ice Mint can also be included.

By David Thiselton