David Thiselton

The new merit ratings are out from the Gr 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic and the handicappers look to have largely managed to get the merit ratings back to the way they had wanted them after the TAB Gauteng Guineas.

The original line horse used for the Gauteng Guineas was Tin Pan Alley, who was rated 117, whilst the appeal panel decided a more appropriate line horse was the 108-rated Grand Empire.

However,  both of those horses are now Gr 1 winners, with Grand Empire having won the SA Classic on Saturday by a short-head from Trust, and Tin Pan Alley having slammed some of the best in the country by 1,75 lengths when winning the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1600m.

The appeal panel’s overall rating of the race thus looked to be too low.

The handicappers have managed to use the evidence from the SA Classic, as well as other factors, to get Trust back to the merit rating they had him on after the Guineas i.e 119 and have changed the ratings of the other runners accordingly.

The ratings look to now have a realistic look to them.

Meanwhile, Tin Pan Alley has been raised ten points to 128 after his impressive Horse Chestnut Stakes victory.

Hazy Dazy remains unchanged on 117 after her cosy win in the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic.

The NHA press release explained all of the changes to the Gr 1 runners:

WILGERBOSDRIFT H F OPPENHEIMER HORSE CHESTNUT STAKES (GRADE 1)

Three-year-old TIN PAN ALLEY has been awarded a revised merit rating of 128, up from 117, following his emphatic victory in the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes run at weight-for-age over 1600m at Turffontein standside track on Saturday.

In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified the consistent TEXAS RED (third place) as the line horse, leaving his rating unchanged at 119.

TIN PAN ALLEY’S commanding win over 1600m on a yielding track dispelled any doubts about his aptitude for the trip. The Handicappers had already considered him suitable for the distance, having used him as the line horse in the original TAB Gauteng Guineas ratings. However, the TAB Gauteng Guineas was subsequently reduced to a level of 109 following an appeal.

The outcome of the TAB Gauteng Guineas appeal has had significant knock-on effects. The three-year-old cohort that dominated the Guineas was reduced from a level of 121 to 109. TIN PAN ALLEY, who finished fourth in that race, has now gone on to win a Grade 1 WFA event.

Effectively, based on the reduced Guineas level, his performance rating has risen from 104 to 128 in just 28 days. While the Handicappers clearly believe TIN PAN ALLEY improved in this race, the improvement would reasonably be measured from 117 to 128 based on the Handicapper’s original assessment of the Gauteng Guineas.

When rating the Guineas, the Handicappers considered the pecking order of the field, the quality of the race as a Grade 2 event, and fairness from a handicapping perspective to ensure horses would meet on proper handicap terms in future contests. The appeal outcome created distortions, including the subsequent reduction of TRUST’S rating from 119 to 108 – a decision made two runs after his Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans victory, which the Handicappers regard as contrary to the principles of handicapping.

TIN PAN ALLY’S performance in this WFA race highlights the strength of this year’s three-year-old crop.

No other horses received upward adjustments in this race. COSMIC SPEED’S rating was reduced slightly, from 124 to 122.

HKJC WORLD POOL SA CLASSIC (GRADE 1)

GRAND EMPIRE, winner of the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic over 1800m, has had his official merit rating raised from 108 to 120.

The Handicappers unanimously agreed that runner-up TRUST reaffirmed the 119 performance he achieved in the Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans last November, where he defeated the 118-rated JAN VAN GOYEN. The Dingaans level remains the officially adopted benchmark for that race.

In the assessment of this race, the Handicappers concluded that TRUST once again performed to that same level of 119. TRUST was used to that mark and was accordingly adjusted to 119.

A collateral line of form with TIN PAN ALLY’S win in the Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1) indicates that the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic is undervalued, however, the Handicappers do not practise retrospective ratings.

Furthermore, the TRUST appeal panel concluded with the following recommendation: “Following the running of the SA Classic, the Handicappers should re-evaluate the entire three-year-old crop.”

Three additional horses received merit rating increases in this race:

WILGERBOSDRIFT SA FILLIES CLASSIC (GRADE 1)

HAZY DAZY’S official merit rating remained unchanged at 117 after she held off her rivals to win the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic over 1800m. HAZY DAZY remains 3 points lower that her male counterpart GRAND EMPIRE, which is within the range of the filly’s allowance while keeping her equal to the Western Cape Leading filly WISH LIST, who is also rated 117.

The Handicappers identified LITTLEMISSMILLION as the line horse, leaving her rating unchanged at 107.

Two horses received rating increases based on their margins ahead of the line horse at level weights: