The Grade 2 Victory Moon Stakes over 1800m at Turffontein last Thursday night and other races have caused a shake up in the Sansui Summer Cup betting over the last few days.

However, the Equus champion stayer Hermoso Mundo, who last ran in the Emperor’s Palace Charity Mile nine days ago, has now found himself at the top of the ant-post board, replacing triple crown hero Abashiri.

The Victory Moon’s narrow victor, the Johan Janse van Vuuren-trained Girl On The Run, stayed on resolutely from a handy position and only just denied Coral Fever, who ran on well from way back. Girl On The Run was carrying only 50kg and escaped without a merit rated raise. She remains on 98 and has shortened into 20/1 for the Summer Cup with Betting World.

Girl On The Run (Candiese Marnewick)

The Robbie Sage-trained Coral Fever proved his win in last June’s Jubilee Handicap over course and distance was no fluke and only lost on the head-bob on Thursday night. His Jubilee win did not earn him a place in the Vodacom Durban July, but it will be surprising if he is now left out of the Summer Cup. His merit rating has been increased from 93 to 97 and he has shortened to 25/1.

Abashiri ran an excellent preparation race in the Victory Moon. The most impressive part about it was that his beautiful, long-striding action was back in evidence. Mike Azzie’s charge was carrying a welter 62kg, so his staying on four length sixth was not a bad effort at all. He should be cherry ripe by November 25, where he will run off an attractive 109 merit rating, considering he was once a 117.

However, an even more ominous run in the Victory Moon came from last year’s Summer Cup third-placed Master Switch. He ran on powerfully for a 1,15 length third on Thursday night, carrying 54kg, and has been raised two points to 101. This is the identical mark he ran off in last year’s Summer Cup. Of course the most noticeable Summer Cup credential he has is that he is trained by Geoff Woodruff, who will attempt to make South African racing history by winning the Summer Cup for the fifth year in succession. This will be a record trot in any one of SA’s three major races, which are the July, The Sun Met and the Summer Cup. Master Switch has shortened into 25/1.

The most fancied Woodruff runner is Pagoda, on 10/1. His last run was a four length defeat to Girl On The Run over 1950m in a Pinnacle Event on October 21. He was giving her 3kg and needed that run. Off his 99 merit rating four-year-old Pagoda will receive 1,5kg from stablemate Master Switch in the Summer Cup and has an outstanding chance. Woodruff also fancies a big run from his ante-post 16/1 shot Banner Hill.

Victory Moon winning trainer Johan Janse van Vuuren is a former assistant of Woodruff and will also have a strong hand in the Summer Cup. His charges Crowd Pleaser and Brazuca are at 11/1 and 16/1 respectively and New Predator and Irish Pride are at 40/1.

Liege

Mike de Kock is in devastating form at present and his filly Orchid Island ran an eye-catching fourth in the Victory Moon. Another of De Kock’s star fillies, Nother Russia, won her seasonal reappearance on the same card and is Betting World’s Summer Cup. Either filly could give De Kock his tenth Summer Cup and are quoted at 14/1 and 17/2 second favourite respectively.

National Champion trainer Sean Tarry’s Summer Cup hopeful Liege ran a bit of a flat race in the Victory Moon in his second run after a layoff and was unable to catch the leaders from a position way back in the field. He finished a 5,3 length tenth. Stablemate Matador Man ran a fair race considering he was asked to come from last with 60kg on his back and managing a 4,25 length seventh. Tarry’s filly Witchcraft finished 8^th and Samurai Blade was a disappointing 11^th.

Charity Mile third-placed French Navy and Liege are now the highest Tarry entries on the Summer Cup ante-post board at 16/1 apiece, Charity Mile runner up Social Order is 18/1, Matador Man is 33/1, Tilbury Fort is 35/1, Witchcraft is 40/1 and Samurai Blade has drifted out to 66/1.

Another eyecatching Summer Cup preparation was put in last week by the Joe Soma-trained SA Oaks winner Wind Chill, who slammed a Progress Plate field by over five lengths and is now 20/1 with Betting World.

Hermoso Mundo made his seasonal reappearance in the Charity Mile and although he had to overcome a wide draw over a distance too sharp, his 9,25 length 14^th hardly justifies Summer Cup 8/1 favouritism. The bookmakers might just be running scared of the “Woer Woer Masjien” having no doubt being punished when the Weiho Marwing-trained horse became the first to achieve the stayer’s “Gold” triple crown last season (Gold Bowl, Gold Vase and Gold Cup).

By David Thiselton

Brett Crawford goes into battle with one of the best hands in the country this season but he left the opposition shell-shocked when he trumped them with four aces in Saturday’s Kenilworth Pinnacle.

For Piere Strydom, too, it was an immensely satisfying outcome because he has managed to put himself on standby in the event of Anton Marcus picking the wrong one.

Brett Crawford (Liesl King)

The six-time champion said: “Derek Brugman rang me and asked if I was looking for a horse for the Cape season. After Saturday’s race, I am hoping to stay with Edict Of Nantes but that depends on Anton – whether he sticks with Legal Eagle who ran very well on Thursday or decides to jump  ship and ride this one. If he does that then I would hope to get on Legal Eagle.”

Edict Of Nantes, despite winning the Cape Derby and Daily News and going under in the July by little more than a metre, was a revelation in Saturday’s race. Far from finding the 1 400m too quick for him, he was always travelling strongly and all it took for him to find another gear was one wave of his rider’s whip.

Strydom said: “At the weights he couldn’t win and I was caught three wide yet it was always only a matter of when I was going to get there.”

That was 30m out and the Mayfair Speculators 7-1 chance beat his three stable companions by half a length, a neck and a fifth.

Their understandably pleased trainer said: “I thought seven furlongs would be a bit short for Edict Of Nantes but he has been working exceptionally well and he is improving. All four go the route everybody is going – Green Point, Queen’s Plate, Met – and I felt Black Cat Black (fourth at 22-1 after making the pace) ran out of his skin.”

Greg Cheyne, who has already been booked for runner-up Sail South in all three big races, added: “The Queen’s Plate is the one I would like to win – but I’d be happy to take any of them!”

Corne Orffer stays with Captain America who started 2-1 favourite and ran on again close home after appearing to be outpaced when the tap was turned on.

He said: “It was a good run. The horse is a year older and the others now turn it on a bit quicker than he does but he may get a bit further this season.”

African Night Sky, squeezed early on, finished fifth but the vets reported that stable companion Black Arthur was striding short after finishing stone last. Justin Snaith was not happy.

He said: “There is something not right with Black Arthur and I’ve got to find out what it is. Both horses need to be at their best in January and they are further back than I thought they would be. I’ve got work to do.”

Edict Of Nantes (Liesl King)

Second favourite Table Bay, beaten two and a half lengths into sixth, lost more than that coming out of the pens and seventh-placed Horizon also took a slow-starting approach to what was his first appearance since the July.

The Maine Chance team has Cape Flying Championship ambitions for Sommerlied who made it five out of six in the Laisserfaire Stakes and racing manager Glenn Hatt said: “We are going to take it step by step but we do have high hopes for her.”

This was Dennis Drier’s first Cape Town winner of the campaign and he commented, “It’s taken a while but I haven’t really been under pressure.” However a run of 13 consecutive losers was seemingly beginning to jangle a few nerves because a grinning Sean Veale added: “I know he can now sleep tonight!”

Anthony Delpech’s visit for just one ride had punters plunging on Meryl in the 2 000m handicap but the Dean Kannemeyer filly, backed from 9-2 to 16-10 favourite, could manage only an expensive third behind Robert Khathi’s mount Fresnaye who apparently had no luck at all when eighth to Snowdance in the Western Cape Fillies Championship.

Joey Ramsden said: “She got splattered all over the show by her stable companion (Rose In Bloom) in that and I am just grateful that she was able to come here and get her confidence back.”

By Michael Clower

What does one read into a barrier trial? That’s what many will be asking after the first trial took place at Greyville yesterday.

The answer may be quite a lot although opinion is divided as to what value these trials will add to the overall scheme of things.

The over-riding idea behind the trials being that punters are given some idea as to the inherent ability of first time runners and some indication of the fitness of horses that have been off the track for 120 days or more. The nay-sayers believe it will be a wasted exercise in time and money.

Cutting Edge (Candiese Marnewick)

Those in favour, and Paul Gadsby is one, feel that they should at least be given a chance and in agreement with trainers who of the opinion that the trials will provide valuable experience for first-time runners. Time will tell but Ashburton-based Gadsby was happy with the performance of his trialist, Sheik’s Storm. She was all over the course for much of the trial but when the penny dropped she run on nicely.

All runners need a 60-day pass at the starting stalls, first timers or not, and the trials are perfect as Gadsby pointed out. “I will use them as a 60-day pass and what better way. My filly had not seen the track, you now we don’t have a poly track at Ashburton, but what better way with a few horses around her. I don’t say she’s a good thing next time out but it helps that she’s seen the track.”

The Gadsby runner Diamonds Forever had seen the poly track on more than one occasion but the addition of blinkers to her racing equipment seemed to do the trick as Billy Jacobson produced his only ride on the card with a perfectly timed run to see off a late-closing Rani.

Monks Hood may not have landed the odds when he started in the Itsarush.co.za Pinnacles Stakes but showed enough to suggest that he will be cherry-ripe for the Gr2 Investec Dingaans to be run at Turffontein at the end of the month. His is a smart horse and Alistair Gordon will make the trip to the Highveld not without hope.

Over a distance way short of his best. He did not get the best of passages as Anthony Depech hunted for daylight, but he was doing his best work late as Cutting Edge scythed through the opposition to win rather comfortably.

Kingston Boy, a soldier for Doug Campbell and his owners and over his best course and distance, earned another cheque for his owners, his 29^th in 52 starts.

By Andrew Harrison

Monks Hood, beaten less than a length in the Gr1 Premier’s Campion Stakes on the final day of last season, warms up at Greyville on Sunday when he runs in the Itsarush.co.za Pinnacle Stakes over 1200m.

Alistair Gordon has pencilled him in for the Gr2 Dingaans to be run over 1600m at Turffontein on Summer Cup day come the end of this month so he is unlikely to be fully tuned for Sunday’s sprint but he made a cracking seasonal debut earlier this month when finishing strongly behind the well fancied Di Mazzio over 1200m on the poly track.

Monks Hood is an obviously talented gelding and in spite of racing over a trip short of his best, with Anthony Delpech up, his class could carry him through.

“Anthony was happy after he galloped him on Tuesday,” said Gordon

Monks Hood (Candiese Marnewick)

“This is his warm-up run for the Dingaans but he is well and he should be competitive,” Gordon confirmed.

However, distance is a concern and the Duncan Howells pairing of Amazon King and Lunar Rush make a lot of appeal.

Stable rider Keagan de Melo has kept faith with Amazon King who has cracked a better draw at four as opposed to his 12 out of 13 last time out.

Lunar Rush is a smart filly who is over what is possibly her best trip. She was game when touching off the smart Isingamoya two runs back and far from disgraced when finding the Greyville short cut a tad too quick for her. This trip is right up her alley and she comes into the race well weighted.

Mark Dixon saddles Scent Of The Tiger who jumped from a wide draw when a close-up sixth to Mr Roy last time out. Speaking at a chilly Summerveld yesterday, Dixon said, “He has a better draw this time and with Ashton (Arries) taking one-and-a-half off his back he should be right there.”

Dixon also has a chance of ending off the meeting with Edge Of Glory that has been improving nicely at recent starts and looks primed for the Follow Gold Circle on Facebook Qualified Maiden. “It’s not a great field, it’s a qualified maiden after all, but he’s doing well although he does have a bad draw.”

World Dreamer, a beaten odds-on shot last time out for Dennis Bosch, is likely to start at the top of the boards again and will be out to add a win to his current CV that boasts places in his last five starts.

Delpech is unbeaten in two aboard Roy Had Enough for Frank Robinson and is back in the saddle for the MR 80 handicap. Both wins were over 1900m and he was touched off over 2000m last time out. The mile could be a tad on the short side in a competitive line-up but he is drawn in pole, always an advantage over the Greyville 1600m be it turf or poly. King Django and the progressive Cool At Heart are likely dangers but that list is a long one.

The meeting kicks off with the first of the recently introduced Barrier Trials where five runners will be put through their paces prior to the first race.

It is hoped that these trials will give punters some insight into a first timers ability and also the relative fitness of horses returning from lay-offs of over 120 days.

There is no betting on the trial as the only criteria is that a horse completes the 1000m in 70 second or less.

By Andrew Harrison

De Kock is introducing horses bred in the purple in conveyor belt like fashion and in the first race tomorrow he steps out the Australian-bred Dhabyaan, a three-year-old son of Medaglia D’Oro, who won three Group 1s in North America on the dirt from 1800-2000m. Dhabyaan’s dam is an unraced half-sister to Undoubtedly, who won the Grade 1 Blue Diamond Stakes over 1200m, Victoria’s most expensive two-year-old race. Dhabyaan has JP van der Merwe aboard from pole position and doesn’t have a lot to beat. King Of The Delta and Gypsy’s Answer have run some fair races, but are quite exposed. National Host was backed on debut, but was one-paced and was reported to have made a breathing noise. He might improve. Bella Ciao is the most interesting of the other first-timers, being by Black MInnaloushe out of an unraced Silvano mare, who was a half-sister to the useful middle distance to staying type Rippling Ring.

Mike De Kock

De Kock could also win the third with Kremlin Judgement. He did not have the wow factor on his debut, but was certainly staying on nicely from a wide draw in an uninspiring event over 1500m. He will enjoy the extra 100m of this 1600m event and is now drawn in pole. Red Revolution ran a similar sort of race to Kremlin Judgement from draw three over 1500m last time and is drawn three again, so could be a threat. The other De Kock runner is Yaamen, who ran a reasonable race on debut over 1200m and will appreciate the step up in trip. One of De Kock’s regular riders, Callan Murray, is aboard Kremlin Judgement, which suggests he is the stable elect.

In the fourth race over 2000m Murray is aboard Big Parade, who is superbly bred and bred for the distance, being by July winner Dynasty out of Summer Cup winner Flirtation. He caught the eye staying on with long strides from a wide draw over 1600m last time and will be hard to beat. If there is one who could upset him it is his stablemate Tremendous, who is a nice looking type and stayed on well in his penultimate start over 1800m. He took no interest last time and the blinkers are now on, which could see him fulfil his potential. Furthermore, he is drawn two, while Big Parade has to overcome draw eleven.

In race five, a MR 90 handicap for three-year-olds over 1600m, De Kock has a chance with eye-catching debut winner Alshibaa. He is by the superb sire Street Cry and showed a fine turn of foot on debut to win easily over 1200m. That was not a strong field and he still has plenty of maturing to do, but he should relish the step up to this trip. However, the choice to win is Forafewdollarsmore even though he hasn’t run since May, as he impressed with his sustained finish over 1400m on debut. De Kock also runs King’s County, who won his third start as a gelding easily last time to exit the maidens, and he is the dark horse.

In race six, a MR 83 Handicap for three-year-old fillies over 1600m, De Kock could win it with Mohallela. Her sire Exceed And Excel was a sprinter, but her dam Yaasah is an unraced half-sister to a stakes winner over 2000m. In her last start she looked outpaced in the finish and looked to be wanting further. However, she will be given a lot to think about by Jet Start and Flying Fable, who look to have some class too. Raven Girl could also play a part if bouncing back to the form of her debut, and further down the weights the Lucky Houdalakis pair of Tundra Taita and Braxton should still be improving.

By David Thiselton

Everything points to Captain America when the big guns return for the Supabets Pinnacle Stakes at Kenilworth tomorrow.

The Gold Challenge winner and his Champions Cup-winning conqueror Sail South have 4kg (roughly three and a half lengths) in hand over the rest and, while fitness will be a big factor, Corne Orffer’s mount was able to win the Matchem first time out last season.

Captain America (Liesl King)

His stable companion has also been off for over three months but could be a big threat. He was receiving 2kg when winning the Champions Cup by a length and a quarter and tomorrow they meet at levels. He won this race 12 months ago but on that occasion he had the advantage of a run under his belt.

Only stable companion Black Cat Black and Table Bay have that plus point this time. The former, in fact, has had two runs but that is just about his only advantage – on merit ratings his chance is pretty slim.

Table Bay ran well in the Matchem but was a bit disappointing when odds-on over a furlong further last time. Significantly many form experts consider him best at this 1 400m but he has so far failed to live up to his Cape Guineas third, let alone the expectations raised by his brilliant Cape Classic performance.

Interestingly the TAB sheet racecard (on the Tabonline website) tips him and the sahorseracing computer has Lyle Hewitson’s mount finishing second to Edict Of Nantes with Captain America third. That said, the computer apparently didn’t consider Sail South and Black Arthur worth a run!

Edict Of Nantes is a cracking good horse who was only beaten a neck when third in the July but he has not raced over as short a trip as this since the Cape Classic in October last year. Horizon, only a neck further back when coming from a bad draw in the July, also needs further.

So too does African Night Sky of whom great things are expected this season. But his winning margin in the Winter Derby was way bigger than in the Guineas and Classic combined.

Black Arthur just might be the surprise packet although the emphasis is very much on the word might. He was fifth on his return in this race 12 months ago and he ran well in the July.

The Laisserfaire Stakes, although the name makes no mention of it, is a handicap so the advantage should lie with those with good recent form. Princess Peach is suggested from Anime with Nordic Breeze and Captain’s Flame worthy of consideration.

Finally there is Silver Coin in the last. The fact that Joey Ramsden sees only positives from his Durbanville return is a tip in itself and he is a big price at the forecast 10-1.

By Michael Clower

Grade 1 Allan Robertson Championship winner Brave Mary will be leaving South Africa for France to test her ability against some of the best horses in Europe.

The Brave Tin Soldier three-year-old departed trainer Paul Matchett’s yard on Tuesday for the arduous journey to her new life. She’ll enter quarantine in Cape Town before heading off to Mauritius for another stint in isolation. She will reach France only in February, just in time to start preparing for the European Flat racing season. She will be put in training with leading French handler Alain de Royer-Dupré who handled the career of Zarkava, the best of her era.

Brave Mary

Bred by Rupert Plersch at Summerhill Stud, Brave Mary cost just R40,000 at last year’s Cape Thoroughbred Sales’ Johannesburg Ready To Run Sale and has already banked R1,106,250. Said Matchett: “I trained the mother Mary Lou, who won six races for me (including the Swallow Stakes). When I saw Brave Mary at the sales she looked just like her mother so I bought her.”

Brave Mary started racing in March for owners Les Taylor and Dean Bayley and few could have predicted the heights to which she would rise when she went off at 22-1 and finished fourth behind Spring Breeze in that 1000m Maiden Juvenile Plate.

She only got off the mark three races later, in a Maiden Juvenile Plate on 9 May, and Matchett then threw her in at the deep end in the Grade 1 Allan Robertson Championship. Brave Mary started at 30-1 but there is a racing adage, “horses can’t read” and she won a great race in the Grade 1, beating Green Plains by 1.75 lengths.

Within hours, prominent USA racehorse owner Barry Irwin of Team Valor was sniffing at the door and Brave Mary changed hands for an undisclosed sum to race for Irwin’s syndicate in partnership with Vanashree and Anant Singh.

In her two starts as a three-year-old, Brave Mary has shown her mettle against the colts, finishing second in both. The first was to Pera Palace in the Sophomore on Heritage Handicap Day at the Vaal and then last Saturday on Charity Mile Day she found only Big Bear too good in the R2.5-million Emperors Palace Ready To Run Cup sponsored by CTS.

“After she changed hands, it was always the intention to export her,” said Matchett. “I was expecting to have her a little longer, but after last Saturday’s race I think her owners decided she had a lot of ability so not to waste any time.

“It’s a blow for my stable, but I think she has the ability to do well in Europe and she will fly the South African flag proudly to give South African racing and breeding a big boost,” said Matchett.

Veteran trainer James Goodman has decided to call it a day. He will be handing in his trainer’s license after almost 43 years in the game. On 16 December, his horses and stable equipment will be sold lock, stock and barrel at his Summerveld stables.

Goodman was granted his license on 1 January 1975 and started training at the Vaal with just six horses. In that same year he won the equivalent of the then Grade 1 Germiston November Handicap (Charity Mile) with Profumo, a “PE chuckout” ridden by Robbie Hill.

James Goodman (Sportingpost)

He moved to Newmarket and later was one of the pioneering trainers at Randjesfontein, where the initial years were hard but where he enjoyed a high rate of success with runners like Duke Of Marmalade, All The Rage, Natural Force, Last Watch and Gold Tax. He trained over 40 Graded winners, including seven Grade 1s.

Seeking a more relaxed lifestyle, Goodman moved his operation to Durban in 2004 and decided on a “boutique yard” of 30 horses, which suited him very well and brought the peace of mind he desired, but the string dwindled down to between 15 and 20 in recent years.

Goodman said on Wednesday morning: “I can’t make a living anymore. Little stables can’t survive and I predict that more small trainers will give it up soon. You have to run a big stable these days to make a decent living. Costs are high and if you haven’t got a good horse or two in the stable it’s impossible to keep going.

“I’ve thrown money at it to keep going. My partner Sandra and her parents have also helped, but there are no more funds left and this is where it’s at now. Our TV show ‘Winning Ways’ lost a few sponsors and that was money that plugged a few gaps.

“For the last two years I haven’t been able to find a single new owner for my yard. Earlier this year I bought five horses at a sale and I tried to syndicate them, but I couldn’t secure even one owner to take shares, not even among existing patrons and friends. As it stands I own 55% of my own stable, so I am responsible for more than half of the feed bill to start. Nobody can keep this business afloat without financial backing.”

Goodman believes his well-publicised “caffeine” case resulted in a poor impression created in public and said: “The National Horseracing Authority’s lawyer Jonathan Witts-Hewinson went vigorously after me. They attacked me as an individual and as a trainer, making derogatory statements, accusing me of being obstructive when all I wanted to do was prove my innocence.

“While I won the case, it cost me a huge amount of money. I didn’t lie down and in the end I was vindicated, but the NHA will only be paying my costs from the High Court Application and nothing before that.

“In their commentary on the matter the NHA admits that there was a reasonable apprehension of bias on the part of Witts-Hewinson, the chairman of the inquiry board but they still put claim on the illegal substance found in one of my horses.

“The fact is, my witness Dr Tobin had not been allowed to testify in the case to refute the allegations, the judge calling it ‘manifestly unfair’! Had Tobin been allowed to speak, I believe we would have won the case on merits alone, coming up against Dr Schalk de Kock of the NHA. But we were denied. This case had a major effect on my training career.”

It’s perhaps all water under the bridge now and Goodman, a man with an extraordinary cheerful and enthusiastic approach to life, will not be lost to racing forever. He will continue in his role as anchor of ‘Winning Ways’ and said: “I will stay involved in bloodstock, become an agent. I remain a horseman. I can still put my expertise to good use for clients.”

He will be missed by his colleagues at Summerveld and by punters and fans around the land and he will miss his horses, but Goodman said: “The decision is made. On 16 December I will be selling everything, from horses to bridles to the last feed bucket.”

– Turf Talk.

Trainer Nathan Kotzen has been criticised for running my horse Cumulus, at Turffontein last Saturday, against Mujaafy, trained by his former ‘boss’ Mike De Kock. But that criticism is wide of the mark, as the decision was mine, and I would submit that it was a sound decision.

Allow me to expand. Cumulus won his first start impressively and in a good time over 1200m at Scottsville, while I was overseas. In his second run, he faded somewhat to finish fifth to Zen Arcade over 1400m on the Greyville poly, and it is worth noting that Zen Arcade was entered, and indeed won, the Graham Beck Stakes at Turffontein last Saturday. I was anxious to see just how good Cumulus is over 1200m on turf, but with Scottsville out of use until December, and with Greyville now primarily a poly track – especially if there is any rain – I began to look at the Vaal and Turffontein meetings in November. Anton Procter, who bred Cumulus, encouraged me but again the decision of when and where, and to compete in a race which included runners from the De Kock and Tarry stables, was mine. De Kock versus Kotzen was not a consideration.

Cumulus (Candiese Marnewick)

Of course, there were Doubting Thomas’s who felt that little old Cumulus would embarrass us in such good company – pick an easier race they opined. But, apart from the fact that they don’t pay the training fees, I wanted to answer a fundamental question: just how good is Cumulus? We knew he was fast, working well and racing fit. We also knew he was very quick into his stride and cruising speed over 1200m, and that he kept finding over that distance. Therefore, I was confident of a place cheque to cover the costs of racing him on the Highveld. Of course, Cumulus was up against Mujaafy, who had won his maiden impressively and could be anything, but his merit rating was 84 while Cumulus had been rated 87 after his first win. So, was Cumulus worth his merit rating, and wouldn’t the Turfffontein race answer that conclusively? Besides it seemed more sensible than running him in a local 84, in which a placed run would only see his rating increased even higher, and not tell us anything we did not already know about Cumulus.

I must admit that having been born at the Turf Club Nursing Home, which looks onto the Turffontein course, where my father had raced horses, and a stone’s throw from Wembley Stadium where he staged several world title fights, added a boyhood dream element into decision.

Although he was well beaten, Cumulus did not disappoint and was clearly second best only to a horse owned by the Crown Prince of Dubai. Even a highveld thunderstorm did not phase Cumulus, and given that Mujaafy looks to be a future champion, his run was certainly full of merit, and confirmed his rating. After the race Mike de Kock graciously said “I am sorry you had to come all the way here and bump into a champion, who may even become a stallion of note”. Anthony Delpech, who rode Mujaafy and had won on Cumulus, added “I told Craig Zackey that your little horse can really run”.

So for me it was mission accomplished, as Cumulus ran a blinder and Nathan Kotzen deserves nothing but praise on a job well done. We may well have horse will travel again, if the paucity of turf races in this province continues.

By Rob Haswell

An interesting study done by The Mirror racing correspondent in England a few years ago revealed a system, which involved an increase in distance for a young horse making its handicapping debut, to be the most consistently profitable. However, it would require a lot of patience and discipline to follow.

A letter sent by a reader was the prompt for the study.

The reader had the idea of backing every horse which was making its handicap debut having had exactly three runs.

The Mirror correspondent’s research revealed only 20.8 percent of such runners won, and it amounted to a loss of 9p for every £1 staked.

However, the system got him thinking and he posed the question: What would happen if such a horse i.e. one making its handicap debut after having had exactly three runs, made that handicap debut in a race where the distance of the race was different to that which it had campaigned over before?

He elaborated, “Just think about it. If you were a trainer or owner and the breeding of your pride and joy suggests it needs at least a mile to show its best, there is nothing in the rules of racing to say you can’t run it three times in sprints, get a handicap mark, and then run it in a handicap over what is likely to be a more suitable trip.”

He continued, “Even on a powerful computer the stats for this take some time to calculate but it was worth doing.

The rules he set were:

On the Flat, look for a horse making its handicap debut in a race that is more than a furlong and a half further than it had raced over on any occasion before.

The result was a return of £1.11 for every £1 staked – or a profit of 11 per cent.

He concluded, “Interestingly, the profit was pretty consistent each year for the last ten years.”

Unfortunately, applying it to South African racing would be impossible due to local trainers’ obstinacy in running maidens in handicaps.

Like the UK, a non-winning maiden in South Africa is allowed to run in a handicap after three runs, but unlike the UK a maiden running in a handicap in South Africa is a rare occurrence.

It makes sense to run such horses in handicaps as they will be up against horses with similar merit ratings, while in maidens the same race can include anything from future champions to battlers.

There is no certainty in racing and no replacement for form study, finding value and being disciplined in only betting on value.

However, with small money, following systems can provide a lot of fun.

Some of the popular systems regularly applied were listed by racing man Glenn O’Brien:

1) 1400m specialists: The logic is this trip produces racing’s most potent specialists, being neither a sprint nor a mile. These specialists usually have the upper hand over failed sprinters stepping up in trip or failed milers dropping in trip. To apply it take races from 1350m to 1450m and back the shortest priced horse who has recorded two or more wins over the distance.

2) Against the short prices: Logic: When there is a short-priced favourite, the true value often lies with the main danger.

3) Backing the best horse: This system identifies the highest rated horse at any meeting and backs it. Logic, true class can pull a horse through under any circumstance.

4) Beaten favourites after a rest: A beaten favourite might not have run its true race and to make amends the connections wait for an ideal opportunity to make amends. To apply this system the next race must come over the right distance at least 30 days after the defeat.

5) Beaten favourites with sights lowered: A beaten favourite next appearing over the right distance in a lower class or lesser quality race.

Glenn O’Brien lists over 50 systems on his website: www.glennobrien.net/horse-racing-systems.html

By David Thiselton