The annual Vodacom Durban July three-year-old versus older horse debate will begin in earnest this week as the countdown to the final field announcement next Tuesday begins.
The three-year-old fillies crop was for a long time seen as a vintage one and they duly had an unprecedented six representatives on the first July log. However, their reputation was dented on Gr1 Daily News day.
Firstly, in the Gr 1 Woolavington 2000, Smart Call’s upset victory in which she narrowly beat the SA Oaks winner and staying type, Pine Princess, put a slight question mark on the Johannesburg form, where her best feature race finish was two length third in the Gr 2 Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Guineas. Furthermore, the Gr 1 Laurie Jaffee Empress Club third-placed Tamaanee, who was an impressive winner of the Gr 2 Gerald Rosenberg over 2000m, could only manage a well beaten ninth, while the dual Gr 1-winning Inara’s fifth place also put a question mark on the Cape sophomore form.
The best of the crop Majmu, had meanwhile been scratched from the Woolavington in the morning due to a spiked temperature. Later, Siren’s Call, who went within a stride of landing the Triple Tiara, was beaten before she had turned for home in the Daily News. This was the second time she had been beaten by three-year-old males, who have spent most of the season being criticised as a below par crop.
However, there were some genuine excuses. Smart Call relished a change in tactics. Inara was run into from behind and trainer Mike Bass also believed she didn’t quite stay the trip. Tamaanee lifted a shoe which was then found to be bent into her foot. Furthermore, the perennial Triple Tiara bridesmaid in Johannesburg, Trophy Wife, ran third without any excuses, which provided some confirmation of the Johannesburg form.
Siren’s Call was caught wide and rushed up the hill, so not surprisingly found little extra, and she was also coming off an ultra tough Highveld campaign.
Nevertheless, there are now only three sophomore fillies still involved in the July, Majmu, Pine Princess and Tamaanee.
The three-year-old colts were given a boost in the Daily News 2000 when the Gr 1 SA Classic winner and SA Derby third-placed French Navy stormed home impressively to beat the Gr 1 Investec Cape Derby winner Ertijaal. Third-placed The Conglomerate also came from classic form, having won the Gr 2 KRA Guineas in comfortable fashion. Furthermore, the unlucky horse was Deputy Jud, who had finished third in the SA Classic and runner up in the SA Derby.
The impressive SA Derby winner Legal Eagle then gave the three-year-old males a further boost on Sunday when slamming a field of older horses in the Gr 3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m despite carrying topweight.
Suddenly, the three-year-old males have become the talk of the town.
The criticism of the three-year-old male crop was largely based on them not having fared well in open company, as well as by facile Investec Cape Derby winner Ertijaal’s failure in both the SA Classic and SA Derby. However, Unparalleled and Kingvoldt were the only two that had really been tested against older horses in features and the latter’s class is questionable, considering his Investec Dingaans victory was achieved in boggy ground, while Kingvoldt was already having coltish issues when running below par in the L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate. The like of French Navy were beaten in ordinary handicaps in the early season, but that is not unusual, even for the best three-year-olds.
Legal Eagle’s defeat in an ordinary 1700m handicap in March off a merit rating of a mere 74 was his first time out the maidens and just his third career start. Lastly, Ertijaal’s dislike of soft ground was confirmed by his good Daily News run, although he has unfortunately been scratched from the July.
Legal Eagle’s demolition job on Sunday came off a merit rating of 112 and showed just how much he has blossomed. However, there are still question marks because second-placed Judicial and third-placed Killua Castle were well beaten by Wylie Hall in the President’s Champions Challenge.
The most fancied older horse is ruling July favourite Futura, who is viewed by some as invincible at his peak, even considering the 60kg he has to carry.
Wylie Hall also looks top class. An upside for the older horses is that Wylie Hall defeated one of the most fancied three-year-olds in the July betting, Majmu, by 1,25 lengths in the Gr 1 President’s Champions Challenge over 2000m and, taking the weight for age scale into account, the pair will face each other on identical terms in the July. The question mark is whether Majmu ran a bit of a flat race in the Challenge, it being her second run after a layoff.
Majmu’s class is beyond question. However, although she will carry the same weight of 55kg that Igugu carried to July victory in 2011, she does have a harder task as she will run off a 114 merit rating compared to Igugu’s 109.
Other older horses with chances are Punta Arenas, who is clearly thriving at Summerveld, and Halve The Deficit who looks quite well weighted on recent form. Helderberg Blue and Tellina will be fairly well weighted in comparison to Futura from the Met, while the best might not yet have been seen from Dynamic, who is officially 2,5kg under sufferance.
The downside for the older horses is that the Met form has not been convincingly stamped by the placed horses Helderberg Blue, Gold Onyx and Tellina.
Furthermore, No Worries let the form of the Gr 1 President’s Champions Challenge down.
Virtually every year these days the older July analysts make the same mistake of saying “a three-year-old can never win with that weight”, without stopping to think of the class dilution that each older crop has suffered in the last decade or two due to the export of many of the best overseas. They usually end up with egg on their faces, but this year they perhaps have a higher chance than normal of being right.
By David Thiselton
