The new handicapping changes have further reduced the handicapper’s ability to handicap purely and points to the difficulty in applying the merit rating system in a country with a relatively small thoroughbred population.

In England trainers find it relatively easy to keep the brilliant, the good and the mediocre apart virtually from day one of their careers and can plan their careers accordingly.

In South Africa trainers have far less options and horses of varying ability will be clashing from day one.
Consequently, the merit rating system looks on evidence to have been unfair on decent horses precocious and sound enough to have been able to make their debuts early.

As an example, two horses with exactly the same innate ability, three-year-old “Horse A” and four-year-old “Horse B”, win two separate maidens at a major course over 1600m in the month of October.

Fighting out the finish

If Horse A won by a length, Horse B, if facing the exact same strength of field, would have to win its race by 6,5 lengths to perform to the same level, because three-year-olds will only be receiving 2kg from four-year-olds whereas in a weight for age event at that time of year they would be receiving 7,5kg.

However, jockeys riding a favourite set out to have enough fuel in the tank in the final stages merely to win, so Horse B duly wins by only a length, albeit comfortably.

Based on the pure result, Horse “A” will be merit rated eleven points higher than horse “B” and if they faced each other in a handicap next time out they would run at level weights despite having the same ability and a weight for age difference of 5,5kg.

Horse “A” therefore has a problem, especially considering the lack of three-year-old handicaps in SA. It might end up battling and by the time it gets down to a competitive mark its heart might have been broken. The owners will be similarly demoralised, especially considering the trainer had told them they had a nice horse.

The above analogy might explain why there are a myriad examples since the merit rating system was introduced in SA in the late 1990s of young horses winning early in their careers and then never winning again.

Looking at results from October 2007, at which stage the system had less restrictions imposed upon it than it now does, two examples can be found from the first two major centre meetings of the month.
Electrocase won a maiden third time out, was accorded an 84 merit rating and did not earn one more cent in eleven further races; Master’s Edge won on debut, was given an 82 merit rating and took a further ten races to land his first post maiden place.

The latest measures to address this issue are contained in the handicapper no longer being allowed to use a “special circumstances” clause to rate a three-year-old maiden winner higher than the benchmark nett 78 in a major centre. Furthermore, general principles are to be applied to horses not making the anticipated WFA improvement within 2 and 3 runs respectively.

At the other end of the scale, a clause whereby three-year-old maiden winners in a major centre cannot have a MR of less than a nett 64, provided the maiden win takes place within the first 8 starts, prevents young maiden winners from being handicapped too leniently.

Another problem in South Africa is the lack of horses filling the gap between the best horses and the low grade handicappers.

This manifests in some horses being left in “no man’s land”.

There are a lack of high grade handicaps for horses who are just below the best, so they have little choice but to compete against the best. When they are then handicapped against the best they are left in an even worse situation.

The latest changes will reportedly be accompanied by new measures to improve the programming of races, which might help the above band of horses.

Furthermore, there are also various new restrictions placed on penalising placed horses in Gr 2 and Gr 3 races as well as winners and runner ups in Listed races. Also, line horses can’t be further back than fourth in Gr 2 and Gr 3 races and fifth in Gr 1 races (they can’t be further back than third in minor handicaps and Listed races).

Another new clause is “Where a horse (especially an older horse) runs out of sync to its normal profile, the Handicappers should rather err on the side of caution and impose half the normal penalty and let the said horse prove the higher rating at its subsequent start.”

An extreme recent example could perhaps be provided by the three-year-old Le Clos.

Being owned by one of the country’s leading owners this horse could afford to be risked in a Gr 3 on the Turffontein Inside track after running above his merit rating in a Progress Plate.

The latter track is tight and can yield some odd results if the pace is false and when Le Clos ran third off his 74 merit rating beating 107 merit rated New Predator at level weights by three lengths, the alarm bells were ringing.

He was raised 25 points to a 99 merit rating and in three subsequent events in a Gr 2, a Gr 1 and a Progress Plate respectively has proven to not be up to the mark.

The new changes have been criticised by some of the best unofficial handicappers in the country and by some of the best punters.

It is admirable of the latter to voice their opinion as the more restrictions in place the better the edge they will have over the rest of the more ignorant betting population. However, only time will tell if they new changes bring some stability.

Trainers will help the situation by adapting to the system as some still appear to be stuck in the race figure system of the distant past.

By David Thiselton

The Scottsville meeting tomorrow starts with an interesting maiden juvenile plate over 1200m for fillies and the Dennis Drier-trained Sail is the one to beat on form, but Greg Anthony believes his yard will go close with Zadora and there are a number of decently bred first-timers taking their place.

Zadora is a big and strongly built daughter of Global One.

This impressive specimen was green on debut over 100m but caught the eye and the form has worked out fairly well. She will appreciate the step up in trip.

She will have her work cut out to beat Sail, who was also green but eyecatching when second on debut over 1200m and the form has worked out quite well there too.

The first-timers who have eyecatching pedigrees are all of Andermatt, Danish Cross, Lunar Rush, Onesie and Oroblanco.

By David Thiselton

It’s something of an anomaly in the international scheme of things that this country’s big three races – or possibly four if you include the Premier’s Champion Challenge – are not run at WFA. The Vodacom Durban July, J&B Met and Sansui Summer Cup all have differing weight conditions.

Power King (Nkosi Hlophe)

Maybe it’s a colonial hangover from an era where betting was more important than the runners and the Durban July was a race for the masses rather than the well-heeled. There are racing purists who still argue that all three of these events should be run at WFA to conform to the international pattern for Group 1 status. While the purists have achieved a measure of success by getting the weight range compressed to be more acceptable internationally, it matters little in the bigger scheme of things. The word ‘handicap’ has been dropped from the official July name as it has morphed from a long handicap to where the weights are now but a token gesture. The bottom line is that every racehorse owner and trainer dreams of a runner in the July, no matter the weights.

The history of the July stretches back over a century and to some extent can be equated to The Melbourne Cup, a race that holds international fascination and dubbed ‘the race that stops a nation’ and like the July breaks every rule as far as international Group 1 status is concerned. For one it’s a long handicap and secondly it’s run over two miles. But quite honestly I don’t think the Aussies would give a damn one way or another if it lost its rating – pretty much the way most South African’s would feel about the July.

Like our July, it cocks a snoot at the world. As Les Carlyon wrote about his beloved Cup, “No elite fields here. Instead up to twenty-four runners jostling and finessing so that if weight doesn’t stop a champion, the traffic probably will.” There were enough hard luck stories in last year’s July to fill a book but all that finally counts are the finishing order posted by the judges and the people attending the spectacle.

Marquees the length of office blocks populate the Greyville infield like some garish squatter settlement that grows bigger each passing year. Entry into one of these ‘tents’ is like gold. They provide the best of both worlds, a refuge from the masses and close enough to the action to catch a breath and a light libation before venturing back into the scrum. Refuge too for those less comfortably minded; those decked out in body suits, tottering on ridiculously high heels and cursing Jimmy Choo.

Come eight o’clock and threading your way in the dark back to your car you will constantly be stepping around prone forms of racing purists, so moved by the glory of what they have just seen on the track that they passed out and the moans and giggles coming from the bushes and bunkers, indications of a busy time in the shotgun trade and maternity wards come March the following year.

South Africa’s Champion season is under way in a fortnight and the Vodacom Durban July is but two months away. Let the carnival begin.

By Andrew Harrison