VDJ Barometer – May 29

There were a few worried faces come last Friday night after the running of the Gr2 Betting World 1900 as a host of Vodacom Durban July hopefuls failed to deliver on expectations, the one beaming face in the crowd that of Duncan Howells after Ten Gun Salute’s scintillating performance to cement his place in the July field.

There were excuses aplenty, many labelling the soft ground as the main culprit for some below par performances, but it was a race of contrasts.

As expected, the front-running Serissa did the donkey work but hardly set the track alight. On his tail and in the box seat throughout was stable companion Tilbury Fort. When Serissa fell away in the straight, Tilbury Fort was left with a clear run to the wire but stayed on for second rather than quicken. Last year’s Investec Derby winner and fourth in the July, It’s My Turn, ran a similar race but there looks to be plenty of meat left on that bone.

In stark contrast was the performance of Ten Gun Salute. He raced wide throughout and only had Mr Winsome behind him at the top of the straight. But when the button was pushed he quickened instantly past favourite Elusive Silva and swallowed up the rest of the opposition in a matter of strides.

Mr Winsome was also doing his best work late and Dean Kannemeyer must now be in two minds whether to take advantage of the final supplementary stage for the July.

Ten Gun Salute and Mr Winsome obviously revelled in the going but it was a particularly good effort from the winner who had been in a race against time to get ready for the race after pulling a back muscle when trailing in last in the Drill Hall Stakes two weeks prior.

Ten Gun Salute was one of the fancied runners in last year’s July and now a year older and assured of a place in the field, his current odds of 18-1 look fairly generous in spite of being cut from 25-1 after this victory.

Of the balance, Elusive Silva was running on well enough to suggest that he cannot be written off come July 1. This was his second outing after a lengthy break and he may just have come up flat on the night. Banner Hill, Prince Of Wales, Macduff, Master Switch, Copper Pot and Rocket Ball all have work to do.

Thirty minutes later Investec Cape Derby winner Edict Of Nates ran a cracking July warm-up in an Allowance Plate. Winner, Crowd Pleaser, is smart in his own right and led all the way but Edict Of Nantes, giving the winner 6kg, was closing the gap quickly and did his July chances no harm at all. The race was switched to the poly surface and favourite Secret Captain found himself out-paced at the business end. He ran a similar race in the Daisy Guineas where he stayed on for second. He gets another bite at the cherry in the Gr1 Daily News 2000 but gives the impression that he is still immature and will be a better horse next season.

Last year’s winner, The Conglomerate, and Algoa Cup winner Nebula were up next in a Pinnacle Stakes, the latter showing his well-being after taking a heavy fall at his previous start. He will go the 2200m trip of the July for the first time come July 1 but on last Friday’s evidence he should see out the trip comfortably.

The Conglomerate was not asked many questions and has been relatively lightly raced this season. He raced handy throughout but was never in the hunt for the winner’s cheque as Anton Marcus nursed him home under a few back-handers. An each-way nibble at 33-1 may not be a sign of madness.

On Saturday at Turffontein, The Elmo Effect failed to feature in a Pinnacle Stakes event and his chances of making the July line-up look slim.

By Andrew Harrison

2017 Vodacom Durban July ante-post betting guide [as at 2:51pm May 29]:

11/2 Marinaresco; 6/1 Al Sahem; 8/1 Edict Of Nantes; 10/1 Black Arthur; 11/1 Elusive Silva; 12/1 Its My Turn; 16/1 Nebula, Ten Gun Salute; 18/1 Horizon; 20/1 Saratoga Dancer, The Conglomerate; 25/1 Krambambuli, Captain America; 28/1 Master Switch, Copper Force, Pagoda, Zodiac Ruler; 30/1 Brazuca; 33/1 Orchid Island, Africa Rising, Master Sabina, Bela-Bela, French Navy; 35/1 Tilbury Fort, Nightingale; 50/1 Liege; 80/1 Smiling Blue Eyes; 100/1 Girl On The Run, Safe Harbour, Silver Mountain, Witchcraft, Banner Hill, Trophy Wife; 150/1 Royal Badge; 200/1 Macduff; 300/1 The Elmo Effect;

Odds courtesy of www.trackandball.co.za and subject to change

Master Sabina (JC Photos)

Master Sabina aimed at the July

Master Sabina, winner of the last two runnings of the Sansui Summer Cup for Geoff Woodruff, will run in the Vodacom Durban July for only the second time.

Michael de Broglio’s seven-year-old was a 20-1 chance when ninth in last year’s race and this time he will be prepared by Justin Snaith who took over the gelding last week.

Jonathan Snaith said: “He may run first in the Rising Sun Gold Challenge on June 10 for a gallop or go straight to the July.”

Silver Mountain, beaten little more than a head by Alexis in last season’s Tibouchina Stakes, will try to go one better in the Greyville June 10 Grade 2. Candice Bass-Robinson, who will also run her Klawervlei Majorca winner Nightingale in the race, reports that Silver Mountain has settled in well after being sent from Cape Town around ten days ago.

By Michael Clower

Talktothestars (Nkosi Hlophe)

Talktothestars can repeat

The often shoeless champion Talktothestars will have a fine chance of defending his crown in the Gr 1 Tsogo Sun Sprint over 1200m at Scottsville on Saturday.

He had been disappointing overall this season until his last run in the Gr 1 Computaform Sprint over 1000m, where he flew home for second in much the same manner as he had when runner up last year. He went on to win the Tsogo Sun last year off a merit rating of 116, so has a fine chance this year off a 113 merit rating. Chase Maujean retains the ride.

Talktothestars (Nkosi Hlophe)

Talktothestars (Nkosi Hlophe)

Piere Strydom was aboard Talktothestars last year but this year rides the consistent Brutal Force, who was caught late by Talktothestars and Carry On Alice in the Computaform Sprint. He is 0,5 kg better off with Talktothestars for a 0,4 length beating and this tough horse should enjoy the course and distance.

London Call, unbeaten in four starts this season, was beautifully relaxed in the running when winning a Pinnacle Stakes event over 1100m at Scottsville last time out and he then showed an effortless turn of foot, This lightly raced six-year-old gelding has improved and has a chance despite having to run off a 111.

Bull Valley will be a massive runner at his best as he has class as well as a good cruising speed and a fine turn of foot. Last November he finished just 0,3 lengths behind Trip To Heaven in the Merchants over 1160m at Turffontein when receiving 3,5 kg a and he was 2,1 lengths clear of Talktothestars, but will now be 4kg worse off.

It will be on the sharp side for Bulleting Home and he might be a touch high in the merit ratings, but he has class and will be running at them late.

Sergeant Hardy is capable of dominating a race from start to finish as he has tremendous pace and has the ability to maintain it. He should have come on from his last start when beaten 1,75 lengths by London Call and he will now be 2kg better off.

Gulf Storm finished second in this race two years ago off a 109 merit rating and now runs of 106. However, he will need to bounce back from disappointing recent form.

London Call (Nkosi Hlophe)

London Call (Nkosi Hlophe)

Muscatt holds the 1000 metre Scottsville course record, but appears better over that distance and as a seven-year-old is off his highest ever merit rating.

Search Party is one of the most improved sprinters in the country and has good pace and the ability to kick on as he did when third in the Diadem over this trip in December. He beat Red Ray receiving only 1kg there that day, so is worthy of his 106 merit rating.

Seven-year-old Barbosa loves the Scottsville straight, but has had a bit of a down turn in form lately.

Captain’s Causeway ran 3,9 lengths back off a 100 merit rating last year and is now off a 104, but he does look to have improved.

The rangy Attenborough turned it on in fine style to win the Listed In Full Flight Handicap over 1000m and on that showing has a shout off a five point higher merit rating.

Table Bay has a big reputation but has proved disappointing over a mile and beyond, so is interesting stepped down to this trip.

Captain Swarovski has good pace, but still has to prove he is good enough to justify a 103 merit rating.

Janoobi has won two Guineas events this season from start to finish and as a two-year-old won the Gr 3 Protea Stakes over 1100m. He only runs off a 103 merit rating and is ultra tough, so will likely enjoy Scottsville.

Exelero finished a 2,4 length third last year off a 103 merit rating and now runs off just a 98, so has to have a shout.

By David Thiselton

Top Form (Nkosi Hlophe)

Top Form ticks the boxes

Top Form has top weight but also well-named as far as his top poly track form is concerned. Charles Laird’s gelding teams up with regular rider Anton Marcus for the Itsarush.co.za Divided Handicap at Greyville tomorrow and can build on his recent run of success on the synthetic surface although he faces a stern test.

Back on the turf for the first time since November last year, Top form was run out of it late over the Scottsville 1100m, beaten just over three lengths by Attenborough, probably one of the more fancied runners in this coming Saturday’s Gr1 Tsogo Sun Sprint.

Top Form (Nkosi Hlophe)

Top Form (Nkosi Hlophe)

Prior to that however, Top Form had won three on the bounce over tomorrow’s course and distance, up with the pace throughout and finding plenty when it counted. He obviously enjoys the surface and although giving weight all round he looks a live contender.

The Australian-bred Professor Brian makes his poly debut and will be in receipt of 10 kg from Top Form which is a hefty amount of ‘pudding’ in anyone’s terms. Coupled with the fact that Joey Ramsden’s charge is unbeaten since gelding it is pretty obvious that Top Form will be up against it. However, this will be Professor Brian’s debut on the poly from a tricky draw which could just edge things the way of Top Form.

But there is a long list of possible winners with Waltzed Home and Kingston Boy the only two whose recent form suggests that they will battle in this race.

The Lightning Shot Bar is a popular on-course watering hole named after a former July winner and punters may need a couple of stiff ones to harden their resolve for the Lightning Shot Bar Handicap that has upset written all over it.

Dennis Drier could hold the whip hand with his pair of Lloyd’s Legacy and Rocky Valley as both were deemed good enough to be shipped to Cape Town for the Summer. But the stable did not enjoy the best of raids and while Lloyd’s Legacy obliged at second time of asking, Rocky Valley didn’t trouble the judges in two outings.

Kingston Boy (Nkosi Hlophe)

Kingston Boy (Nkosi Hlophe)

But Rocky Valley did show early promise, form that booked his place on the float to Cape Town, and he can redeem himself tomorrow. He was tossed in at the deep end in the Cape and after finishing down the field in the Lanzerac Ready To Run where he had the worst of the draw, he came home and was gelded.

He showed good pace in his first run back after a five-month spell when weakening late behind Purple Tractor at Scottsville and that run should have brought him on. If he realises some of his early promise he should be good enough to at least land a blow.

The Soccer 6 Handicap over 2000m is another tricky affair where the two sophomores Night Circus and Warfarer resume rivalry. The pair last met over course and distance with the latter coming out on top, beating Night Circus by over three lengths. Warfarer has since had a further two starts, both on the turf, and the switch back to poly could be what he’s looking for.

However, Night Circus has excellent poly form and is now 3kg better off at the weights which could see the tables turned. But all the runners in this nine-horse field warrant consideration and if the two young guns don’t pitch up to the party, any one of the seven older runners are in with chances.

By Andrew Harrison