Saturday’s Investec Day Of Dreams meeting will have two Gr 1 events but the focus will be on the Non-Black Type CTS Million Dollar, which will have a total stake more than four times bigger than the previous richest race in South Africa.
The final field consists of a variety of different types of horses, some of whom are packed with speed but might not stay the 1400m trip, while others are perfectly suited to the trip and others who would likely appreciate a touch further.
Those able to stay further will want the pace as quick as possible in order to maximise the stamina factor. The highest rated make among them, Exit Here, landed pole position, the ideal draw from which to force the pace. Exit Here enjoys being in front and does not tear away, so could be called a natural front runner, and he has top jockey Anthony Delpech aboard. However, the other horse contestant, who like Exit Here might go the Derby trip in time, Hard Day’s Night, is also a natural front runner, and amazingly enough he is drawn in barrier two.
He will have the cool, calm and collected Piere Strydom up, and some pundits, when discussing the race, ventured the opinion that there will be a mad scramble from the off followed by a furious pace, and Strydom will simply lick his lips while restraining his mount and mow them down in the straight. Strydom does not look to have the right horse to employ those tactics, but is sure to have some sort of wily plan up his sleeve. One probability is that he and Delpech, two of the best and most experienced riders in the race, are unlikely to be dicing for the lead and burning their mounts out.
On the other end of the scale are the speedsters with stamina doubts and they include the filly Jo’s Bond, who has never raced beyond 1000m, Tar Heel, whose best form is over the minimum trip, and to a lesser extent Vurumba and Swift Sarah. Vurumba is speedy but has won up to 1300m. Swift Sarah had excuses the only time she tried 1400m as she burst through the stalls, but she does pack a lot of speed.
Among these Swift Sarah is a front-running type and if a gamble is taken by taking her to the front in the belief she will see out the trip, she might offer a lead to Exit Here and Hard Day’s Night as she is drawn three. Jo’s Bond, Vurumba and Tar Heel are likely to be dropped out to give them a chance of seeing out the trip. If the pace is slow and they manage to settle, their speed will come into play in the straight and give them a shout. In the likely event of a fast pace they can be ridden cold but will need cover all the way around the turn, which will be tough from a draw of 15 and 20 for Jo’s Bond and Vurumba respectively, but manageable for Tar Heel from draw six. Jo’s Bond and/or Vurumba could therefore be gambled with and sent to the front.
The best merit rated male is Seventh Plain, who has won a Gr 1 over 1400m, but the feeling is that he is probably better at 1200m. He attempted to get to the front from a wide draw in the R2,5 million Lanzerac Ready To Run Stakes over 1400m, but the eventual winner Budapest scuppered this chance and he ended up racing handy but wide, and didn’t find his normal strong kick. That was his first run after a layoff, so he probably needed it, but the pace is likely to be on again, so it will be interesting to see where Anton Marcus places him in this race. He has a big stride and a fine turn of foot so would likely enjoy using that stride behind a fast pace before running on.
The highest rated horse in the race is the filly Silver Mountain, who will be very well weighted as she also receives a 2,5kg fillies allowance. She has a plum draw of five, which will likely come into four, so she will be able to afford to relax if the pace is on as she has good gatespeed and a superb turn of foot. However, Aldo Domeyer will remember being left a touch out of his ground in the Grand Parade Cape Guineas and will not want a repeat.
Redcarpet Captain is perfectly distance suited and will be hoping for a fast pace so that gaps can open, allowing him to find cover from a wide draw as he has a fine turn of foot. Victorious Jay has proven he gets a mile and will love a fast-paced 1400m. However, he will also need some luck from a wide draw. Prince Of Thieves looks ideally suited to the trip and, jumping from a likely draw of eight, he will love to use his nice stride to sit within striking distance before unleashing his telling turn of foot, so will also enjoy a fast pace.
Ernie defeated Prince Of Thieves as a two-year-old over 1400m and finished strongly to win a Listed 1200m event last time, but he will be 4kg worse off with Seventh Plain from that 1200m race, and is another with a wide draw to overcome. Illuminator was in that race too and beat Seventh Plain by a short-head, but is now 6kg worse off. However, he has no stamina doubts and will likely jump from a the enviable position of six.
Lunar Approach has won over a mile and proved last time to be perfectly suited to 1400m when obliterating a strong field at Turffontein in a three-year-old handicap. He is likely better than his 95 merit rating and is the dark horse, although he has a tough draw to overcome.
A Time To Dream’s wins have been from 1200-1400m, but she will have to reverse a 6,9 length defeat by Silver Mountain from the WSB Cape Fillies Guineas.
Melliflora is the lowest rated horse in the race but has a Gr 1 second to her name over 1600m. She is courageous and will likely be running on from a likely draw of nine.
The atmosphere will be electric on the day and the event will appeal to the racing purist too as the tactics employed by the jockeys are likely to be paramount to ultimate success.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Hard Day’s Night (Liesl King)