Magnificent Seven is a confident choice to end the ten-year hoodoo on favourites in the Settlers Trophy at Durbanville tomorrow.

Since Justin Snaith scored the second of his four wins in this 2 400m handicap with Caseys Son in 2008 every favourite has been beaten (and four of them didn’t even make the frame) but Richard Fourie’s mount is an improving sort who looks well handicapped.

He has won four of his last five starts and, while the assessors have pushed him up six kilos, they have only raised him 2kg for last time’s length and a quarter victory – despite Fourie making most of the running and having enough in reserve to ease up close home.

Richard Fourie (Nkosi Hlope)

This is an extra two furlongs and a slightly more competitive race but the Horse Chestnut gelding looks as if he will have no problems with the trip, he is already a course winner and four-year-olds have won three of the last four runnings. He eased from an opening 17-20 to 11-10 yesterday and his in-form trainer reports: “He is in very good shape.”

Red Peril’s opening 20-1 looked too good to last and, sure enough, you could only get 15-1 about last season’s winner yesterday morning. Billy Prestage’s gelding is the oldest horse in the field but Posh Boy was also eight when he won five years ago and Red Peril likes the course and relishes bowling along in front.

Durbanville suits front-runners and they can be hard to peg back up the straight. His trainer likes to change the jockeys and Corne Orffer is the seventh different pilot in eight races. It’s worth noting that here early last month he was a two-length second to Magnificent Seven and renews rivalry on 4.5kg better terms. He looks the biggest danger despite his big price.

However Benjan is the main threat according to the market and the 4-1 second favourite is 1.5kg better with Magnificent Seven for the length and a quarter he was beaten last time. Sister Soozie is weighted to confirm last time’s course and distance placings with fellow 9-1 shot The Silver Fox but history is against top weight Master’s Eye. No horse has won this with more than 59.5kg in at least the last 17 runnings.

Water Spirit stands out in race three. This R2 million filly really flew once she grasped what was required of her on debut and she will be suited by the mile. The 2-1 favourite also has a better drawn than her main market rivals.

By Michael Clower