Head Honcho’s odds have tumbled since this page pointed out that he was overpriced at 33-1 following his impressive win in last month’s Premier Trophy and today you will be hard pushed to get much better than 13-1.

The vibes from the stable are good. Andre Nel, not exactly a member of the oozing-confidence brigade, is bullish. “I think the current odds are a fair reflection. He has done very well since the Premier and I believed he has improved.”

Nel had hoped to run the five-year-old in the July. “I tried to get him into the race and qualify him with a galloping weight and I thought I had done so but some of the KZN horses got in above him – and some of those probably didn’t see out the trip.”

Head Honcho ran on July day but in the Betting World 2200 which he won. His win in the Premier was his sixth success from his last seven starts but only his second run of the season – “I was always only going to give him two runs before the Met and if he hadn’t run well in the Premier he would have gone for the Peninsula Handicap.”

Keagan de Melo, who has ridden Head Honcho in five of his last seven races, has only ridden in the Met once before. That was two years ago when he finished down the field on 100-1 shot Cape Speed. The ride made such little impression on him that he can’t even remember it!

Head Honcho, though, is quite a different matter. “He has improved every time I have ridden him. As a young horse he lacked confidence but he has been improving off each win. He was very, very impressive in the Premier and in a way I was quite surprised how well he won but not so ability-wise. I always knew he had a big one in him.”

However the horse is not a straightforward ride. “He seems to pull quite a bit. He is a natural front-runner and he likes to gallop so that is obviously the plan for Saturday.

“This is his biggest test to date and so I would like to have one or two to follow but, if that is not possible, I wouldn’t be afraid to take it up myself.”

And what chance does the jockey give the fourth favourite? “Realistically, it is going to be hard to beat a couple of them but the way he is improving I think he will run in the first four.”

He and Kampala Campari will be Nel’s first Met runners with 2013 winning rider Aldo Domeyer on the second string. “I think he has come on from his last run and he should put in a game effort,” says his trainer. “He has done well and he has earned his place but I have my doubts that he really sees out ten furlongs.”

By Michael Clower