Game Theory to land the odds

PUBLISHED: 17 October 2018

Shogun (Nkosi Hlophe)

The weather forecast is good for tomorrow’s meeting on the Turffontein Inside track and there are some interesting horses turning out.

The first of them is Varsity Bourbon, a De Kock-trained Var colt who is bred in the purple and runs in race one over 1200m. He is out of Off To Dance, a National Emblem half-sister to the top racehorse and champion sire Captain Al. Off To Dance is also a half-sister to the Grade 1 Cape Fillies Guineas and Grade 1 Majorca winner Shadow Dancing (Fort Wood), who is in turn the dam of the dual Grade 1 winner Thunder Dance. On the other hand Varsity Bourbon was not very expensively purchased at R400,000. The yard said, “He will have an each-way chance if he does not need the experience.” He has a tough draw of ten to overcome.

Shogun

Shogun

The tip to win the race is Game Theory, a Byword colt who has had two decent starts to date. He is not the most imposing sort so it is open to question how much improvement he has in him and he also has a tough draw of 12 to overcome. However, trainer Alec Laird usually brings them on slowly but surely and he does not have a lot to beat. Enter The Dragon does have some scope but would likely prefer a touch further. However, he should be staying on well from draw three with the same 4kg claimer who rode him to a staying on second place finish over 1450m last time.

In the second race over 1200m there are two interesting first-timers. Summer Afternoon is by Trippi out of a Pivotal one-time winning daughter of the great Ipi Tombe. She is tipped to win as she should have speed and is drawn in pole and Sean Tarry has a good record with first-timers. The Johan Janse van Vuuren-trained Veritas is a R3 million filly by Captain Al out of an unraced Galileo mare who is a half-sister to dual Listed winner Ezima, the dam of European Champion filly Taghrooda. She has a tough draw of seven out of ten to overcome, but does have Gavin Lerena up so should be right there. This pair do not have a lot to beat and the best of the raced runners could be the battling maiden Tidal Tussle, who is having her 17th start.

In the third race Mighty And Magic enjoyed his first attempt at 2600m and Lyle Hewitson will know a bit more about how to tackle the trip with him this time so from pole position he is made the best bet on the card.

In the first leg of the Pick 6, also over 2600m, Kiss And Angel should relish the step up in trip being by Await The Dawn out of a Galileo mare and she has a plum draw. Ration My Passion is by Cape Blanco, who won five Group 1s from a mile-and-a-quarter to a mile-and-a-half, and is out of a half-sister to an Australian Derby winner so he should relish the step up in trip on pedigree too. They should get punters through the PA and for the Pick 6 Building Bridges can be included as he stayed on well over 2400m in his penultimate start and Strydom rides from a good draw.

The next leg of the Pick 6 is tricky and any one of the eight runners could win. However, Gottalottaluv has always struck as one with some class and he should be fit and ready and jumps from pole position under Strydom. Noceur is coming into his own so is the other one to include and Chariot Of Gold is a decent filly who will relish the step up in trip having run unplaced over 1600m on Saturday.

In the sixth race over 1600m Helios has always struck as a decent sort and sneaks into the handicap with the minimum weight so could give Hewitson another winner. The Rising Legend has a fine turn of foot and will be staying on strongly from his usual last position. Orpheus can go close if repeating his fine last start over course and distance when a close second to Summer Cup favourite Noble Legend.

In the seventh race over 1450m Bockscar finished like a train the last time he tried this trip so has to be included, although Darkest Hour is tipped as he has been unlucky lately. King Of The Delta has improved and is interesting stepped up in trip as he has been staying on in his races over 1200m.

In the eighth over 1000m Wrecking Ball is the choice a she is talented but often just does not get home over the minimum trip. Her last three runs over further might have helped build her stamina and she could last home this time. Green Plains and Covered In Snow look to be the chief dangers.

In the last leg over 1200m the promising but temperamental filly Sally Called is taken to beat the Grade 1 winner Van Halen, who will likely need it. Green Haze, Xplosive Kiss and My Boy Caloi also warrant consideration.

By David Thiselton