Shadowing, something of a punter’s nightmare so far, can finally get it right in today’s Tabonline Maiden in his first race at Durbanville.
The Vaughan Marshall gelding has finished second or third in the last six of his seven outings and he has started either favourite or second favourite in the last five. Just think of the money you would have saved if you hadn’t backed him.
Yet he has a fair bit of ability, certainly enough to win this race, and Durbanville may bring out the best in him. He won’t be faced with a long, staring straight but instead will go almost immediately into a turn with only a short run-in when the race begins in earnest.
Flash Fire (Nkosi Hlophe)
Furthermore Marthinus Johannes Byleveld is no mean jockey – he numbers three Cape Guineas on his Grade 1 list – and you can rest assured that he will be going into action with a carefully prepared plan aimed at getting this enigmatic customer home in front.
The price, though, is uncomfortably short. World Sports Betting yesterday tightened the three-year-old from 9-10 to 8-10 and a horse with his record should never be odds-on.
Tintagel’s form is not as good but the 22-10 chance is the obvious danger. “He is a fair horse and I think he should probably win,” is the considered view of Mike Stewart who adds: “Don’t rule out Beethoven. He was drawn 11 out of 13 on his first run and the appie couldn’t get in.”
Another to consider is 15-2 chance Head Of The Pack who led the field a merry dance in Trip To The Sky’s race at Kenilworth ten days ago before weakening a furlong out. Significantly this race is over a furlong less.
Richard Fourie opted for the well drawn and superbly bred R1.3 million newcomer Peter Paul Rubens in the first in preference to the four other Snaith runners. The Duke Of Marmalade colt is a half-brother to Kasimir and Golden Horseshoe winner Afrikaburn. He was 11-10 favourite and might just have been good enough to collect at the first time of asking.
But Justin Snaith was worried about sore shins and scratched him yesterday afternoon. Few of those that have raced make much appeal but The Suit, although disappointing in his last two runs, gets a tentative vote at a good price.
Bellingham Bay sprang a 50-1 shock on debut here early last month and, despite the usual first time out of the maidens caution, he may go in again in the Betting World Handicap while Angel’s Trumpet appeals in race five.
By Michael Clower
