The highly regarded San Fermin hasn’t lived up to the hype surrounding her to date and her stablemate Frederico’s Dream is tipped to beat her in tomorrow’s headliner at the Vaal Standside track, a MR 84 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1200m.
Lucky Houdalakis
Frederico’s Dream has plenty of pace and has taken well to blinkers. In her penultimate start over 1160m in the Listed Swallow Stakes she only just failed with the blinkers on for the first time. Last time over 1000m she put the race beyond doubt some way out due to her exceptional pace and finished 0,8 lengths clear of the decent sort Winter Watch, although she was receiving 4kg. Stepping up to the 1200m should not be a concern on paper as she won twice over this trip early in her career.
However, she was not wearing the blinkers on those two occasions, so there is a slight concern about her running out of steam late. San Fermin, who has an exceptional turn of foot, proved in her penultimate start over 1160m she is suited to this trip. However, she was beaten a head by Frederico’s Dream on that occasion and is now 2,5kg worse off. On the other hand she was a touch unlucky and was finishing the stronger of the pair, so could be a threat over this slightly longer trip. Those two should fight it out. Movie Show has been in good form but is only 1,5kg better off with Frederico’s Dream for a 2,95 length beating over 1000m. Ninjara has always struck as a decent sort and the Houdalakis yard bring them on slowly but surely, so she could continue to progress despite being given a five point raise for her win over 1200m last time. Ice Art is capable of a strong finish from the back and can place, but she does have to bounce back from a 7,3 length thrashing by Frederico’s Dream and is only 1kg better off.
The first leg of the Pick 6 is a MR82 Handicap over 1600m and the three-year-olds could hold the upperhand. The selection is Gambado, who has raced in strong company lately. Last time out in the Listed Sea Cottage Stakes over 1800m he finished a 3,45 length fifth to the top class Majestic Mambo, despite receiving only 2kg. He did take quite a strong hold of the bit in that race and was right up there until the closing stages, so he might enjoy the step down in trip and has a plum draw. Furthermore, he races off just an 80 merit rating so should go close.
Darkest Hour ran a fine race in the Dingaans, finishing a 2,25 length sixth. However, he hasn’t raced since. On the other hand he will need a big race off an 88 merit rating if he is to make it into one of the classic races. Alssakhra is close to Gambado on their 1800m run behind Royal Crusade. He is an entry in the Betting World Gauteng Guineas, which shows how highly regarded he is, and will need to win this race off an 80 merit rating to have any chance of getting into the final field. Shogun is in hard-knocking form and is off a competitive merit rating at present so leads the older horse threat over a suitable trip. Tommy Waterdevil is an honest sort who can never be ignored, despite making respiratory noises every race.
Shogun
The second leg of the Pick 6 over 1600m looks like an upset race. Querari Viking has a touch of class so can defy topweight. Front Rank has always had ability and has plummeted to a 65 merit rating. He runs well in soft ground and there has been rain around so he could be good value. The form of No Mans Land’s last start over this trip has been franked and he should be considered,
The seventh over 1200m could see Punta Cana proving his class in his third run after a long layoff, as he is likely to appreciate the step up to 1200m. If he is not bankered Battle Creek and Premier Show can be included. Baahir and Harlan County can also be considered.
The last two races are low division sprints over 1200m and the suggestion is to go as wide as possible. The selections to win the respective races are Little Magician, who looks a nice sort and is way better than his last run, and Alex The Great, who is well regarded and has dropped to an attractive merit rating over an ideal trip.
By David Thiselton
