Out-of-Province success in this most important of Cape Guineas trials is rare but the Alec Laird colt has the form to win.

On his most recent start, in a 1 450m Progress Plate at Turffontein, he came up against a string of previous winners and had to give weight to all but two of the 12 runners. He beat Golden Horseshoe fourth Flying Free only narrowly but he was conceding 3kg. Three lengths further back third was Hakeem who was only beaten a length and a half when sixth in the Golden Horseshoe.

This line of form puts the Jo’burg horse in front of Ancestry and Captain And Master and – by extension – suggests that he should also beat Eyes Wide Open.

“It was that form which gave us the confidence to have a crack at the Cape Guineas,” says Laird, already looking ahead to the big one in four weeks’ time. “My horse came down here last week, he travelled well and had a gallop on the course last Saturday. He handled the left-hand turn and I was happy with the way he was working.”

Randall Simons’ mount opened 7-2 favourite with World Sports Betting yesterday but that is a doubtful benefit in the Selangor. Five of the last seven favourites have been beaten.

Captain And Master (9-2) didn’t help his chance in the Golden Horseshoe by over-racing early on. He did it again in the Premiers Champion when he also met with interference. If S’Manga Khumalo can settle him he will be a major threat.

Eyes Wide Open (a big price at 6-1) has to give 2kg all round and, as such, there must be a suspicion that he will find at least one too good for him. But he is the highest rated and he ran above his mark in a mile Pinnacle three weeks ago.

“He has already achieved a higher rating than Gold Standard was given after his win in last year’s Selangor,” points out Glen Kotzen. “He has had a good prep and he is ready for this.”

Joey Ramsden has won four of the last six runnings, with Anton Marcus on two of them, and 11-2 shot Ancestry’s Durban form suggests he should turn the tables on the Kotzen hope.

Undercover Agent’s second to Tap O’Noth in the Cape Classic represents a more recent guide and he is second favourite at 4-1. “The extra 200m will be in his favour,” says in-form Brett Crawford who adds: “I also give White River (12-1) a chance. He is a very progressive horse.”

The draw should, theoretically at least, be crucial in the R2.5 million Lanzerac Ready To Run with the turn starting so soon after the start and the run-in so much shorter than on the summer course. But a quick start can overcome the worst of draws and Crawford’s 11-2 chance Bold Respect is taken to prove the point.

“He is a fast starter, he is a very good horse and I’m confident,” enthuses his trainer. If he and I are wrong then Sean Tarry should win for the second successive year with 28-10 favourite Wonderwall, almost certainly the pick of the stable’s quartet.

Attempting to overcome a bad draw by dropping the horse in looks suicidal in such a big field but that is what Justin Snaith intends doing with Sir Frenchie (5-1) and with unbeaten Selangor runner Do It Again. “That is the way they run,” he argues. “What I need is a strong headwind – and I might just get it.”

By Michael Clower