The Vaal Outside track stages a ten race meeting tomorrow and outside draws will be favourable by trends.
There are a couple of “penalty kicks” on the card in the form of the race two contender Alaadel and the race five contender Samurai Blade, but they are likely to be at cramped odds.
The Candice Dawson-trained Jay Peg filly Jameson Girl has been chosen as the best bet on the card and she races in race four, a Maiden for fillies and mares over 1000m. She has plenty of speed and Gavin Lerena stays aboard from a plum draw.
St John Gray
The downside is she was seen to be hanging inward last time out. However, she does not have a great deal to beat. Gunship made a fair debut behind a couple of promising sorts and could improve, so she looks the main threat from a good draw. The exposed Blazing Berry showed pace last time over 1200m with the blinkers back on and she looks likely to enjoy returning to the minimum trip and could earn.
The highest rated handicap on the card is the sixth race, a MR 80 affair for fillies and mares over 1600m. Inaninstant is the selection despite her disappointing last start. She has always struck as having class and she now has her third run after a layoff over a suitable trip. She will have the advantage of a 4kg claimer aboard and this might help her get over to the favourable standside in the lead, as she is usually right up there.
There is not much to separate her and Angelic Appeal on form. The latter has a tricky draw to overcome, but Marco van Rensurg is aboard so she should have every chance of doing so. Sisters Of Mercy usually makes breathing noises, but can never be ignored as she is capable of a strong finish. She has plenty in her favour as she is drawn on the standside rail and is three points lower in the merit ratings than her last win. She might also appreciate the slight step down in trip from her last few runs.
Nother Russia has inherited some of the class of her outstanding multiple Gr 1-winning mother Mother Russia and is another danger. It is her first run since March and she has a tricky draw, but she is from the Mike de Kock yard, who always have them fit enough and she is off an attractive merit rating of 79. Readyforyourlove has some useful form and can’t be ignored, although this is her second run after a long layoff and she has a tough draw.
The value bet of the day could be the St. John Gray-trained Thewaywemaykem, who runs in the 9th, a MR 68 Handicap over 1200m. The 1000m last time was a touch sharp and he couldn’t make much leeway in the closing stages when poised to strike. He now has a plum draw again and will relish the step up in trip. Furthermore, he has come another four points down the merit ratings. Tough old campaigner Flag Of France also has a good draw off a competitive merit rating over a suitable trip. However, the most interesting runner in this race is the Trippi gelding Dawnbreaker. On debut he showed a lot of pace from a plum draw and just got up. The form was franked and Gavin Lerena stays aboard off a reasonable merit rating of 74, but they now have to overcome a tough low draw.
One of the most interesting runners on the card is the Var filly La Roquette in the last over 1200m and she was almost chosen as the best bet on the card. On debut this imposing filly won effortlessly over this trip by 3,3 lengths. However, the downside is the time she recorded, which was not great and the form also looks weak. However, she won ever so easily and has plenty of scope, so it would be no surprise to see her follow up off a mark of 76 with Van Rensburg staying aboard. She will have to beat the year older and in form Shwanky, who is very well drawn.
In race eight over 1600m Aquaboy should have a good chance as a front running sort who went close from a tough draw last time and now has a plum draw.
By David Thiselton
