The Gr 3 Cartier Politician Stakes over 1800m will form an important leg of the expected R2,4 million Pick 6 at Saturday’s big L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate meeting and this traditional pointer to the GR 1 Investec Cape Derby is full of intrigue.

The Mike Azzie-trained Gr 1-winner Rabada is the best in at the weights on official merit ratings, despite having to lug 62kg. However, Markus Jooste’s racing manager Derek Brugman was unhappy that, due to an administrative veterinary hitch related to African Horse Sickness regulations, Rabada had only been able to leave Randjesfontein for Cape Town on Tuesday this week. He travelled well and was “fit and well”, but Brugman did not know what to expect as the horse would obviously have less time to recover from the 18 hour journey than they would have liked. Brugman added Rabada had proved “in need of the run” when beaten three lengths into second in the R2,5 million CTS Ready To Run Cup over 1400m at Turffontein, “through no fault of anybody’s as he was thought to be fit enough.” That was his seasonal reappearance and his first career defeat. He subsequently missed his engagement in the Gr 1 Grand Parade cape Guineas due to a bout of pharyngitis, which he has fully recovered from. He has a plum draw of two.

Unexposed horses often emerge as leading lights from the Politician Stakes and one such candidate is the Justin Snaith-trained Silvano colt Black Arthur. He has only had three starts to date and on the evidence of his last start when repelling when repelling the decent sort Mambo Mime on the Old Course 1600m, he will relish both the step up in trip of the Politician Stakes and the longer straight of the New Course. He was receiving 5kg from Mambo Mime, but took a while to get going, and at the line was pulling clear effortlessly. The weights are set by merit rated band and on the downside Black Arthur’s is not officially well weighted, and he is widely drawn too, but he looks capable of rising well above his current 90 merit rating and Piere Strydom is aboard.

Snaith stable jockey Bernard Fayd’Herbe is aboard Star Chestnut, probably due to the weight of 58,5kg, but he does have pole position and on the evidence of his 4,4 length ninth in the Gr 1 Grand Parade Cape Guineas, he should enjoy the step up in trip as he was staying on nicely from well back in the running.

Another stablemate Baritone, who is officially 2kg better off with Black Arthur as he carries 57kg off a 94 merit rating, had the run of the Cape Guineas from pole position and stayed on well for a 2,2 length sixth. Gavin Lerena will be aboard and this Trippi colt should also enjoy the step up in trip, being out of a Singspiel mare who won the Gr 3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m at Turffontein.

The last of the Snaith runners is the More Than Ready gelding More Than Grand, a progressive sort who won over course and distance last time when using his big stride to stay on resolutely. He is merit rated only 81 and carrying 54kg, meaning he is 7kg out with Rabada, but he looks to have scope and is one of the dark horses.

A horse who will definitely love the trip, and further, is the Dean Kannemeyer-trained Cape Speed, who was a touch disappointing in a MR 85 handicap over 1600m against older horses last time as he was unable to produce any telling acceleration in the straight and was beaten over seven lengths by Milton. Before that he had looked a most promising Derby prospect. That last outing was his second run after a layoff and he will prefer this trip, so he can’t be written off just yet.

The form of Cape Speed’s last race points to the Mike Bass-trained Marinaresco having a chance here as he finished close to Milton at level weights over 1400m and will likely love this trip.

The other Bass-trained contender, Tin Soldier, won full of running over 1600m last time out and being by Silvano should be improving all the time

The Sean Tarry-trained Liege had genuine excuses for his two below par Cape Town runs and he could therefore end up being the best value price in the field as he has shown before why he is so well regarded and he will enjoy the trip.

The Mike de Kock-trained Mooghamir is well regarded and on the up and showed tremendous resolve when winning his first Cape Town start over this course and distance. He has similar form to that which De Kock’s 2015 Cape Derby winner Ertijaal had at this time last year.

Mooghamir holds Nebula and Eastern Charm on that last run. Kemal Kavur will find it tough as a front-running type from a wide draw. Solar Night is widely drawn and looks held on his overall form.

By David Thiselton