The Gr 1 L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate had a farcical pace last year and it is difficult to predict how quicker it will be in the 155th renewal of the prestigious weight for age mile event at Kenilworth on Saturday.
The key horses to the pace could well be Heartland and Noah From Goa.
Heartland is firstly from the same stable as the two likely favourites Futura and Legislate. Secondly he is owned by Jack Mitchell and his daughter Nancy, who are part-owners of both Futura and Legislate. Thirdly, his likely best chance of winning the race is to take it by the scruff of the neck, as he is 6,5kg under sufferance with the best rated horse Legal Eagle and 6kg and 5kg out with Futura and Legislate respectively. Next, he showed when winning the Listed Jet Master Stakes over this course and distance and when finishing runner up in the Gr 3 Kuda Matchem Stakes over 1400m that he likes to run from a handy position and there is no reason on that evidence that he can’t lead as he doesn’t appear to be a headstrong type.
Lastly, and possibly the biggest factor of all, is that his draw of seven coupled with Futura and Legislate’s draws inside of him of two and six respectively, gives him the ideal chance to go like a hare out of the gates, allowing his two more fancied stablemates to slot in behind him. However, this is where the prediction of how fast they will go becomes tricky.
Presuming Heartland does take the lead and Futura and Legislate manage to secure the box seats behind him, slowing it up will then play right into the latter pair’s hands as they both possess exceptional acceleration. Futura’s turn of foot was the decisive factor in last year’s Queen’s Plate off a slow pace and Legislate’s turn of foot was the decisive factor in the Gr 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge last year over 1600m at Greyville where he himself set a slow pace.
That is not to say the brilliant pair would not be suited to a fast pace, as they both stay further than the mile.
However, the horse most likely horse to ensure a quicker pace could be the Mike de Kock-trained Noah From Goa, who will be attempting to become only the second three-year-old since Yataghan in 1973 to win the Queen’s Plate, Gimmethegreenlight in 2012 having been the last one to do it. Noah From Goa, who is unbeaten in four career starts on turf, over raced a bit back in October in a MR 74 Handicap over 1450m as Anthony Delpech hit the front early and waited for a horse to come around him, which duly happened. He still won by 6,25 lengths. He had to be reined back again before the turn in his next start in a MR 94 Handicap for three-year-olds over 1450m and once again his fine turn of foot and resolute finish carried him to a comfortable victory of 2,25 lengths over a useful field.
He then had a nice inside draw in the Investec Dingaans and was one again a little bit keen early, but fortunately New Approach took the lead allowing him to sit in the box seat. Noah From Goa one again displayed that fine turn of foot and resolute finish and proved he had the important factor of courage in his armoury too as he emerged victorious after ding-dong struggle down the straight with New Approach. He had a nice draw in the Gr 1 Grand Parade Cape Guineas over the Queen’s Plate course and distance and Delpech read the race superbly as he bounced him out and made a beeline for the first turn where the two obvious pacemakers in the race, Hard Day’s Night and Budapest, slotted in front of him, putting him in the box seat behind a good pace. Despite going around the turn on the wrong foot, he once again displayed his turn of foot and resolve.
However, considering the way all of these wins have panned out, Delpech faces a bit of a dilemma. From a draw of nine aboard a horse with good gatespeed and early pace, he looks to have little option but to go out hard all the way to the turn.
Last year’s pacemaker Ashton Park led more by accident than design as he is a horse who prefers coming from off the pace. However, as a horse who has always seemed more suited to 1400m and consequently tends to pull over 1600m, his draw of 14 could make him a possible leader if they go slowly from the off. However, this is unlikely considering Heartland would probably want to get on with and Noah From Goa will have to get around him. So Noah From Goa looks likely to be leading at the turn and from there, on previous evidence, the likely best option would be to allow him to stride out in front. Whether he settles in front remains to be seen and of course the wind strength and direction on the day is another factor in the equation as nobody would want to lead into the teeth of a South Easter. Unfortunately, Windguru does predict a fresh to strong South Easterly breeze of between 21 and 26 knots and this might be enough to play havoc with the pace of the race.
The Joey Ramsden pair Act Of War and King Of Pain are two others who could influence the pace. Ramsden was understandably furious after the Gr 2 Lanzerac Alta Mater Green Point Stakes when Act Of War’s hold up and run on plan was scuppered by the second and third horses in the running allowing the eventual winner Captain America a lead of a few lengths despite going at a crawl. Even Act Of War’s exceptional turn of foot was not enough to make up the deficit under those circumstances. It is unlikely there will be a repeat of such riding in a race of the Queen’s Plate’s prestige. However, the yard are unlikely to want to risk Act Of War parking at the back again, despite a wide draw of 14. That said, Act Of War is a completely different horse to Ramsden’s 2013 Queen’s Plate winner Variety Club in that he does not possess a ton of gatespeed or early pace. Nevertheless, Anton Marcus will likely waste no time in going to the front if they go slowly from the off.
King Of Pain’s best career result was when Bernard Fayd’Herbe correctly predicted a slow pace in the 2014 Gr 1 Gold Challenge and took him to the front from where he was too good to be caught by the best milers in the land, which included the like of Beach Beauty, Yorker and Capetown Noir. He showed signs of a return to form when running on strongly for fourth in the Gr 2 Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes over 1200m last time out. The race would have sharpened him up and, with that Gold Challenge victory in mind, Vodacom Durban July-winning jockey Stuart Randolph will likely seize any opportunity to go to the front if it is slow early as he has an ideal draw of five to do so.
Captain America is a big horse who likes to use his big stride, so is usually handy. He proved he can settle in the lead in the Green Point, so is another possible pacemaker from a wide draw of ten.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Heartland (Liesl King)
