Arniston has over four lengths in hand in the All To Come Graduation Plate at Kenilworth today if he can be persuaded to produce his best form – and he has disappointed in his last two starts.
There were legitimate excuses when he finished plum last on July day – he was found to be not striding out on his left fore – but the reasons for his dropping back in the closing stages of the Matchem were less obvious.
However stable confidence is higher now that he is back at Kenilworth. “He hated Durbanville,” says Chris Snaith, referring to the Matchem performance, “and he will run well here.”
The main threat, certainly on adjusted merit ratings and probably also on form, is the Dean Kannemeyer-trained Lord Marshal who was second to Ready To Attack in both the Langerman and at Durbanville last time. He opened favourite at 18-10 with Betting World yesterday and Arniston was a 2-1 chance.
Half the 16 in the opening maiden are newcomers and Twenty Four Carat, who opened 7-2 favourite, looks the pick of those that have raced even though Auditorium didn’t do much for the selection’s last Kenilworth run when only fourth on Saturday.
Grant van Niekerk (pictured) has opted for 5-1 first timer Mr Piscato in preference to stable companion Barnstable (10-1) whose form is in the book. Significant? “Not really,” answers Candice Robinson. “Grant quite likes Mr Piscato but I think the horse is going to need it. Barnstable is not the easiest ride and Robert Khathi has ridden him twice before.”
The in-form Adam Marcus introduces Gyre (10-1) and Saint Roch (14-1) with Sean Cormack booked for the latter. “They are both nice sorts and I’ve put Sean on Saint Roch because this is a progressive sort and I’m hoping that Sean will be able to stick with him,” Marcus explains. “But I haven’t wound up either of them so I’m not expecting that much.”
One of the basic Kenilworth punting principles is not to back those drawn wide over 1 400m but Mulher De Branco (woman In white in Portuguese and big in monster movies) has shown so much promise in her two starts that she might well be able to cope with pen eight out of ten in the Place Your Bets Maiden. She is 12-10 favourite with Durbanville runner-up Kryptonite next best on 5-2.
Ma Choix was raised 2kg for her Durbanville win but, as that was her first outing for eight months, she should be able to confirm the placings with Elusive Wave despite being 1.5kg worse for just over a length.
“It’s her second run after a rest which is a concern,” cautions Andre Nel. “But she is doing well and the extra furlong this time is definitely in her favour. We are aiming her at the Victress Stakes in December.”
Aldo Domeyer’s mount is attractively priced at 9-2. The hat-trick seeking Sea Glass and Durbanville scorer Good Grace dispute favouritism on 4-1 but the latter has been raised 2.5kg for her win.
Roman Silvanus lost his Durbanville race in the boardroom but he could be hard-pushed to beat three-year-olds Nebula and Bora Bora in the concluding maiden. Preference is for the Snaith horse who ran on well from some way back over two furlongs less last time and is 5-2 second favourite.
– Michael Clower
