Winter Is Over looks nailed on for the Betting World Maiden at Kenilworth tomorrow even though the price is unlikely to do a great deal for your finances.
This grey gelding – as short as 15-20 yesterday – looked a certain future winner when, despite showing understandable signs of greenness, he ran on strongly to be beaten less than a neck by the more experienced Ashbury Park on debut last month. Significantly the ground that day was soft.
Winning Ways singled out the Justin Snaith runner as one to follow and Luke Ferraris’s mount, odds-on yesterday, should have few problems confirming the form with Brother Louis who was over a length behind and has far less scope for improvement.
Grant van Niekerk was a talented jockey long before he went to Hong Kong – horses really run for him – and it will be interesting to see how a season in that pressure cauldron has improved him but I think the bookmakers are going overboard if they expect him to justify favouritism in four races out of six.
Most of his supposed best chances need to find a bit but Doppio Oro can start his ball rolling in the first despite being drawn one from the outside. The going on the sprint course last Saturday was significantly faster on the inside than in the middle or the outside.
The Candice Bass-Robinson runner has marginally the best form although it is a concern that we have no idea how he will handle the soft. Watch out for newcomer Bag Of Tricks. This is a Ridgemont runner, he has already been nibbled at and Brett Crawford won with a few first-timers last term.
In race two Van Niekerk’s mount Larentina ran well in the soft on debut but Calypso Beat, although untested in this going, also showed plenty of promise first time. She is a slightly better price and at the odds may prove a better bet. Missisippi Burning also has claims but 13 out of 14 means Craig Zackey is going to have to get across.
Snaith is responsible for 19 of the 74 runners (25%) and in the 1 000m Tabonline.co.za Maiden he has four out of seven but original favourite Tambora has been scratched. The Joey Ramsden runner Celtic Voyager accounted for all except the show-stopping Yorktown in the soft over a furlong further a fortnight ago and looks the one they have to beat.
BLOB Michael Clower’s winning run faltered when the ground changed and the profit on his tips to a R10 level stake in the last six months of the season dropped from a high of R307.40 to R195.40.
By Michael Clower