Snorting Bull is good value

PUBLISHED: 07 August 2019

Sovereign Reign

The Vaal straight course has a nine race card tomorrow which should provide a few opportunities for punters.

The highest rated race is a MR86 Handicap over 2400m and Snorting Bull is made the value bet of the day.

Last time out over this trip he moved up strongly but perhaps went to early and it was also his second run after a layoff, so he could not maintain it. He did still finish a good 1,75 length third and should have come on from the run. He is drawn two and is 1,5kg better off with Top Shot, who beat him by 1,25 lengths in that last start. Top Shot must be respected on that effort although Tirzan is preferred for the runner up spot. Tirzan was beaten three lengths into second by the exciting staying prospect Horace last time he tried this trip and that was no disgrace. It was the second time he had finished runner up over this trip this year.

Sovereign Reign
Sovereign Reign

Bondiblu will be near the top of the boards following her 2,70 length fifth in the Grade 3 Track And Ball Oaks over this trip. However, the handicapper gave her six points for that effort and she will now have a hard task with Top Shot. She beat the latter by three lengths when they last met but even if her apprentice claim is included she is now 4,5kg worse off. Furthermore, for a mare to carry 59,5kg and give come decent males weight is not going to be easy. The other two runners, Earth Sky and Hands Of Man, are 3kg and 6,5kg under sufferance respectively so are up against it. 

The fourth over 1600m is the first of two fillies and mares MR 84 handicaps. I Like It looks the one to beat although with the lightweight jockey Ryan Munger up she is going to be carrying a lot of deadweight with 62kg on her back. Last time out she was just 2,25 lengths behind Vistula when receiving only 2kg and the latter went on to finish fifth in the Grade 1 Jonsson Workwear Garden Province Stakes. One reason she is chosen is because there are question marks about most of the other runners. Eightfolds Lass won well last time over this trip and is consistent but she was given a seven point raise. Elusive Butterfly could be a threat as she will likely find this trip ideal and is only two points higher than her last win. Both Scent Of Evening and State Star are talented but they have both had breathing issues so are not ones to rely on. Soul Of Wit has been disappointing over sprints lately and tries 1600m again. In her only previous attempt at this trip she finished fifth but she is by Ideal World so should have a chance of getting it. 

The other MR84 for fillies and mares is the fifth over 1000m. Elbi is a pacey and consistent sort who was beaten by a firecracker in What A Red last time. However, if recapturing the form which saw her going close to Ulla in her previous start then she is the one to beat. Nawaasi disappointed in two runs in June but last time out was full of running when winning over this trip. She was given a six point raise and is half-a-kilogram under sufferance here but has the same 1,5kg claimer Nathan Klink aboard and if carrying that form into this race has a chance. The topweight Winter Watch is talented but a touch enigmatic. She has a shout with a 4kg claimer up if having a running day.

In the first leg of the PA the hard knocker Orchid Street is interesting dropped in trip to 1200m as she had some decent earlier form over that distance. She looks likely to fight it out with Pidgeon Rock who has had four seconds in succession from 1000-1200m.

In the sixth race over 1000m Boundless Deep might have chased too hard too early last time as she had no extra in the final 200m. She is now three points lower in the merit ratings and has a 4kg claimer up so can afford to be a bit more patient and is selected to win. Phillydelphia could be in the shake up for the in form Paul Peter yard if reproducing her penultimate start. However, Queen Of War, Claremorris and Moggie Brown also warrant consideration.

The eighth is a difficult 1600m handicap event. Sovereign Reign finished strongly last time over 1500m and is off an attractive mark so is the selection. However, all of Changing Seasons, Winter Crusade, Sammi Moosa, Hidden Agenda, Don Pierro, Movie Magic and In The Game must be included in the Pick 6.

In the last race over 1600m Mr Cuddles has a good opportunity to get off the mark in an uninspiring event as she has two seconds to her name over this trip. She is taken to beat Free Deal, who is improving and should enjoy the step up in trip, and Blanco, who has been disappointing but should go close here.  

The best bet of the day is taken to be Afrostar in the second as he has class and should now be coming into his own.

By David Thiselton