Gold Circle Pty (Ltd)

Today's Racing :

True handicap for Durban July - Part One

David Thiselton
he way the Vodacom Durban July weights have panned out means this year’s race will virtually be a true handicap and proves that it is the strongest July field for sometime.
In last year’s race, with the range of merit ratings going from Pocket Power’s 121 down to 97, there were only six horses in the handicap.
Many of the country’s top jockeys had to sit on the sidelines with only six horses carrying more than 51kg.
The previous year the powers-that-be allowed Pocket Power to race off a 116 merit rating rather than his actual 118.
As a result there were only four horses under sufferance, but there would normally have been more.
This year, the first horse in the weights to be under sufferance is the 19th horse on the list, Bulsara, who is merit rated 106 and has been allotted the minimum weight for a colt or gelding, 53kg.
He is 0,5kg under sufferance as are the next three on the list, Ecohawk, Galileo’s Galaxy and Tales Of Bravery.
However, there is a horse lower in the merit ratings and weights, the 101-rated filly Goat, who has snuck into the handicap on 52kg, the minimum allowable weight.
There could therefore be a situation where only one horse in the entire field is under sufferance and then only by a barely noticeable 0,5kg.
Virtually any horse in the field could therefore win and the housewives who have their annual flutter on their favourite colour or most meaningful name will all have live chances, unlike last year where some of their choices really had no chance whatsoever.
There is sure to be a top line-up of jockeys too thanks to the wise decision to move the topweight up to 60kg from 58kg and the bottom weight up to 52kg from 50kg.
The annual older horse versus three-year-old debate will rage this year, unlike last year when it seemed that only Big City Life held a candle for the three-year-olds.
How wrong the pundits were then with three-year-olds filling the first three placings.
The slow pace was blamed, but this year a crawl is highly unlikely.
Last year Mike de Kock did not have nearly as strong a line-up as he has this year, so the slow pace set by Forest Path suited him as it made the task of the best horses harder.
This year De Kock has the favourite Irish Fame as well as top horses like Bold Silvano, Ancestral Fore, Lizarre, Rudra and Happy Valley, probably the strongest coupling in the history of the race.
He is virtually certain to want a good pace and if necessary it will be provided by the impressively resolute galloper, Happy Valley.
De Kock said on Tuesday regarding Happy Valley, “He won’t be stopping either.’’
This virtually white horse is sure to attract a lot of sentimental money and De Kock clearly thinks a lot of him.
Who is the most likely winner though?
Continues with Part 2 True Handicap for Durban July

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