Gold Circle Pty (Ltd)

Today's Racing :

July market upheavel after Big T meet

David Thiselton
There were some significant Vodacom Durban July betting changes after the big day at Turffontein last weekend.
Bouquet-Garni impressed in the SA Derby and has consequently shortened from 50-1 to 20-1 on the Betting World book.
Some say that as a big long-striding horse he might not be suited to Greyville and they might be right.
He quickened very well at the top of the straight in the Derby and shot to the front in a matter of strides.
However, horses that have sustained finishing runs often do that at Turffontein and perhaps look more impressive than is their due, for many of the opposition are still being waited with at that stage.
A three-year-old that looks a Greyville horse all over is Big City Life.
In his Cape Derby win he was beautifully relaxed throughout and quickened well in the straight at the crucial point.
But it was his second place finish in the Byerley Turk over 1400m that really stamped his July credentials at this early stage.
Coming into the race below his peak he really turned it on in the straight before his lack of fitness told in the closing stages.
Not surprisingly he shortened from 40-1 into 16-1 after that race.
He could be a hard horse to beat in both the KRA Guineas and Daily News 2000 at Greyville.
The latter race will also tell whether Bouquet-Garni can handle the course or not.
The three sophomore fillies in the July, Gypsy’s Warning, Goat and Zirconeum all have the necessary turn of foot suitable for Greyville.
After her Champion’s Challenge effort Zirconeum looks like a suspect stayer as she quickened very well but in the end was run out of the placings.
Gypsy’s Warning and Goat shouldn’t have a problem with the trip and at 100-1 Goat could be the best value three-year-old in the race.
Magical came from a long way back in the Derby to finish one length back in second and has consequently shortened from 40-1 into 25-1 for the July.
Forest Path has gone out to 25-1 after his weak Champion Challenge effort and that looks far too short. He should be at least 100-1.
Unbeaten Oracy’s lack of a recent run is a concern, but he remains the shortest-priced three-year-old at 12-1.
The four-year-old Thandolwami, a flying third in the Champions Challenge, is due to be supplemented and it will be interesting to see what he is priced up as.
He hates being around horses so only quickens when seeing daylight at which stage he takes off. Given a clear run from some way out in the July he could be a contender, although the chances of seeing daylight in the calvary charge of the big race are not high if you are coming from off the pace.
Meanwhile, Mike Bass has explained on TV the annual difficulty he has in finding a first preparation race for Pocket Power in Durban.
The Drill Hall is just about the only one around and this year he will need the run badly. He has also drawn very wide.
Compare this to the easy run in he has into the J&B Met and it could well be a myth that he is not as good in Durban.
A July is always a race where people try and find something to beat the champion, but it might be in vein this year.
Some are talking about Pocket Power’s age, but he has been nursed throughout his career and only seems to be getting better. The doubters should also be reminded about the famous American horse, John Henry, who was Horse Of the Year at age nine.
Justin Snaith said yesterday that he had still not found an opening race for Dancer’s Daughter. She takes a lot of racing, but did win last year’s July after an opening race on May 31, so there is still time.

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