Flamingo Monday Tips and Suggested Bets
PUBLISHED: January 20, 2020
Flamingo Monday January 20 Tips and Suggested Bets by Warren Lenferna…
Flamingo Monday Tips and Suggested Bets by Warren Lenferna
R1 (4) Master Of The Sea (10) Sexy Cinderella (1) Philadelphia Rock
R2 (2) Brigtnumberten (4) Concealed Secret (5) Manhattan Cocktail
R3 (8) Rock Of Joy (7) Kwikstix (2) Mighty Gemini
R4 (4) Crimson Castle (5) Jay Is Simple (2) Lady Bluff
R5 (1) Lily Starlette (6) Kayla’s Dream (7) Carmella
R6 (4) Amazon King (10) Lady Of Liberty (8) Olofberg
R7 (1) Manaftermidnight (2) Spike Wells (12) Mr Tinsel
R8 (4) Vanilla Orchid (5) Kildonan Princess (6) Olivia S
Leg 1: 2 x 4
Leg 2: 8
Leg 3: 4 x 5
Leg 4: 1
Leg 5: 4 x 10
Leg 6: 1
Leg 7: 4 x 5
PICK 6 (R729)
Leg 1: 8 x 7 x 2
Leg 2: 4 x 5 x 2
Leg 3: 1 x 6 x 7
Leg 4: 4 x 10 x 8
Leg 5: 1 x 2 x 12
Leg 6: 4 x 5 x 6
Leg 1: 4 x 5 x 2
Leg 2: 1 x 6 x 7
Leg 3: 4 x 10 x 8
Leg 4: 1 x 2 x 12
Race 2: 2
Race 7: 12
Play Voice Of Reason by ear
PUBLISHED: January 17, 2020
The Gavin van Zyl filly is again ridden by Keagan de Melo and has opened favourite at 22-10. She is reasonably drawn and probably has most to fear from…
Voice Of Reason, having only her second start when beaten a neck over this course and distance on Cape Guineas day, looks the part for the Racing Association Maiden Plate at Kenilworth tomorrow.
The Gavin van Zyl filly is again ridden by Keagan de Melo and has opened favourite at 22-10. She is reasonably drawn and probably has most to fear from 9-2 shot Still Tappin who was two and a quarter lengths behind last time despite coming back with a cut on a hind leg and making an abnormal respiratory noise (not a good sign).
Foxy Lady (7-1) was three-quarters of a length further back and may again make the frame but one to bear in mind is the Hassen Adams-owned What A Flirt (9-2). She was found to be not striding out when a disappointing favourite on her most recent start but she was only beaten a short head previously and she is the highest rated of the eight who have been given a mark.
All except the first three of the seven two-year-old races run in Cape Town this season have been won by a horse who has had the advantage of a previous run – but it could be worth taking a chance with 28-10 newcomer Bowie in the opening Maiden Juvenile Plate.
Nothing sensational about the colt’s pedigree – although the R220 000 Cape Yearling Sale purchase is By Twice Over out of a National Assembly mare who won as a two-year-old – but he is trained by Sean Tarry who did not bring him all the way from Johannesburg just to run a place. And it is surely significant that Anton Marcus has taken the mount.
The Dennis Drier-trained Pray For Rain, odds-on when only fourth of six on debut, is again favourite here. He had last Saturday’s runaway scorer Erik The Red a length and a half behind but the filly Musical Glitch (33-10) has perhaps the strongest claims on form.
Mr Fergie (22-10) is rated 1.5kg behind 12-10 favourite Pacific Rim in the 1 400m maiden (race two) but the Eric Sands gelding couldn’t get a clear run at a crucial stage on New Year’s Eve and might have finished in front of Red Rock Canyon had he done so. He gets the vote to make amends although it should be noted that Red Rock Canyon over-raced last time.
In Auro has to give weight all round in the Betting World Maiden Handicap but Marcus’s mount is favourite and looks the one they all have to beat.
By Michael Clower
Beware of horses for courses
PUBLISHED: January 17, 2020
Born To Perform has done very little wrong for Dennis Bosch and finished ahead of GG’S Dynasty when the two met at their penultimate start…
Horses for courses is a well-worn phrase but does hold a lot of water and there are a few course specialists lining up for the Michael Roberts Handicap at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Sunday. This could well apply to GG’S Dynasty as Brett Crawford’s runner has won three of his five starts at the track and finished second in another.
More pertinently was his performance last time out as he quickened away from his rivals to win as he liked. Granted, it was not the strongest of fields but it was the manner of victory that impressed and he can take it to another level when he takes on some hard-knocking handicappers. He has the best of the draw, a handy weight and Anton Marcus to help his cause but he will need a lot to go his way in a seriously competitive handicap.
Born To Perform has done very little wrong for Dennis Bosch and finished ahead of GG’S Dynasty when the two met at their penultimate start. The former has a 1kg pull in the weights to add to his appeal, that coupled with the fact that he only has 53.5kg to shoulder.
In their only previous meeting, GG’S Dynasty ran out a narrow winner over Sunday’s course and distance so there should again be very little between the two.
Another course specialist and last year’s winner is Wealthy. Dennis Drier’s charge has recorded five of his six wins on the course and gave notice of a return to form when running the much improved Merin From Berlin to a neck in a Chapter Challenge final, giving his rival 9kg. Merlin From Berlin subsequently won again to bolster Wealthy’s form.
Two other runners with solid credentials are The Dazzler and Blackball.
Few who were at Scottsville when The Dazzler shed his maiden will forget that run. Making his debut against winners for James Goodman, he motored home from a seemingly hopeless position beating some useful performers in the process. When Goodman handed in his licence The Dazzler went to Mike de Kock where he won another three races.
The gelding has his issues but Gareth Van Zyl appears to have got on top of them and in a performance reminiscent of his maiden win, he cut down Born To Perform like he was standing still to win the Christmas Handicap.
Given his style of running, 14 draw will not be a problem but finding a way through the traffic may be!
Blackball has been in good form and although finishing out of the money in the Christmas Handicap he was little over a length behind The Dazzler and finishing off nicely. The extra furlong will also suit so he is a must inclusion in all exotics.
Punters face a generally tricky card but two that stand out as possible bankers are Baby Shooz in the fifth and Marsanne in the sixth.
Baby Shooz was unlucky last run when close-up from a wide draw and Anton Marcus losing his off-side rein for a couple of strides which may have cost him the race. Baby Shooz looks useful and can make amends. Admiral’s Guest has a tricky draw to contend with but has been close-up in his last three while Galway was a recent maiden winner but has only had two runs back after a lengthy break and looks to be on the up.
Marsanne too was a touch unlucky when touched off by course specialist Celebration Rock in a Chapter Challenge final. She looks the part but if she fails then the list of possible winners is a long one. Naoshima has her third run after a lengthy break and should strip at her peak and turn the tables on Petra who is always dangerous and only got going late last run. She can do better over the extra furlong. Purple Nkanyezi showed up well first run out of the maidens and although she takes on stronger she has a handy weight while Talia Al Ghul and Linear should also be considered although the latter is a difficult customer; more than capable but not always reliable.
By Andrew Harrison
Captain Hindsight maybe hard to oppose
PUBLISHED: January 17, 2020
It is difficult to identify a Pick 6 banker and Captain Hindsight is given the accolade without much confidence. He runs in the last race over 1000m…
The Turffontein meeting on Saturday is tricky and the exotics look to be the way to play.
It is difficult to identify a Pick 6 banker and Captain Hindsight is given the accolade without much confidence. He runs in the last race over 1000m. It is never easy to win first time out the maidens but he had decent maiden form and looked to have been reasonably treated by the handicappers when given an 81 merit rating. Furthermore, he has a 2,5kg claimer aboard. His form includes close seconds to the useful pair Donderweer and Battleoftrafalgar and he beat the improving Blow Me Down cosily last time out. Pearl Of Siberia has decent recent form and is better than his last start. Rebel Renegade has fallen to the mark of his last win. Both have favourable high draws and would have been included if the budget had allowed.
The earlier legs of the Pick 6 all look to be competitive.
In the first leg Waqaas is proven over this trip and is knocking on the door off his current merit rating. However, as a handy to front-running type his draw of nine makes it tough. Written In Stone has been running on too late over 1400m so is interesting stepped up to this trip, although he has a tough draw. Darkest Hour is distance suited and in good form so has a shout from pole position. The Rocketman is talented and will be dangerous if bouncing back with pacifiers on off a much reduced merit rating. Chipofftheoldblok and Jackman also warrant consideration. Lasair was the hardest to leave out and it was due to his tough draw and three point higher merit rating.
In the next leg Liberado won easily last time and is interesting stepped up in trip off a five point higher mark as he looks to have turned the corner. Western Fort won well second time out and could be going places. So Long Spring improved with blinkers last time. Seeking Gold is three points higher for his course and distance win in his penultimate start and has a fair draw. Pink has dropped to a competitive mark and Rockstar Child and Oyster King could be thereabouts if producing their best.
The next is a small field staying event and the suggestion is to include all seven runners.
In the seventh over 1400m Saragon, Social Order and Leopold all have a touch of class and should fight it out.
In the eight race over 1400m Pop Icon is coming into his own and from pole position could make it three wins from his last four starts. Category Four has caught the eye on occasion and should be running on strongly over a suitable course and distance. Lazarus Tree is full of ability but needs things to go his way. They might do so from a good draw of three.
By David Thiselton
National Park eyes SA Champions Season
PUBLISHED: January 16, 2020
“He is so naughty and has been causing his own little injuries. If I could geld him again, I would! We want to race him for a long time so I am not rushing
The Yvette Bremner-trained stalwart National Park has not been seen out this season, but is full of well-being and might well be seen in KZN again this year for the SA Champions Season.
He has had one or two slight niggles but nothing serious.
Bremner said, “He is so naughty and has been causing his own little injuries. If I could geld him again, I would! We want to race him for a long time so I am not rushing him back, but he could well be seen in Durban again this year, he will be ready in time for that season.”
The Gimmethegreenlight gelding was last seen finishing a three-quarter length second to Twist Of Fate in the Grade 2 KRA Guineas at Greyville on the opening night of the SA Champions Season on May 3 last year.
His is the only horse to have ever beaten Hawwaam in Johannesburg and achieved that when winning the Grade 2 Gauteng Guineas by 2,70 lengths at Turffontein last February.
He also won the Grade 3 Graham Beck Stakes over 1400m at Turffontein last season but was beaten 7,40 lengths and 7,25 lengths respectively by Hawwaam in the Dingaans over 1600m and the Grade 1 SA Classic over 1800m.
His most obvious big race targets in KZN would be the Grade 2 IOS Drill Hall Stakes over 1400m and the Grade 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge over 1600m.
By David Thiselton