Kenilworth Saturday Tips and Race Previews
PUBLISHED: August 24, 2019
Kenilworth Saturday August 24 Tips and Race Previews by Warren Lenferna…
Kenilworth Saturday Tips and Race Previews by Warren Lenferna
Preview: WARRIOR TIGER (10) has run two good races thus far and could take a ton of beating today. IN FULL POWER (1) has solid form and should win his maiden one of these days and WHAT A PRINCE (11) can improve a lot on his fair debut to get much closer – respect. (Warren Lenferna 10-1-11)
Preview: A small field but very competitive! I like the way KNIGHTS TEMPLAR (4) has been turning it on and winning recently and I am sticking with him to make it three in a row! PLATINUM PRINCE (1) is making big threats of winning again and this time with weight off his back, should go as close again as he did last time – big runner. AMERICAN LANDING (2) is knocking at the door and is an obvious inclusion in most bets. (Warren Lenferna 4-1-2)
Preview: SOVEREIGN SECRET (9) is well bred, well related and could go close to winning on debut – keep an eye on the betting market. MISSISIPPI BURNING (4) showed very good improvement from run one to run two and has obvious claims and is probably the horse to beat. QUEEN OF QUIET (5) nearly won on debut and then was not sighted second time out – that was in a feature. She can do much better in this and is a must for most bets. (Warren Lenferna 9-4-5)
Preview: WATCH ME NOW (3) nearly won last time, has the racing experience and looks cherry ripe to go one better. HELLO WINTER HELLO (8) caught the eye on debut when kicking on powerfully to finish fourth of ten – she can only improve off that and could go close to winning. BILLI ANN (2) has a place chance based on her penultimate run, her last run, I am not sure what happened there but she is surely better than that? (Warren Lenferna 3-8-2)
Preview: ONLY ONE LIKE YOU (8) caught the eye on debut when finishing fourth of eleven over 1200m. Today he gets stable rider Orffer, draw one and some more ground which he is bred for – he could be better than the rest and is the confident first choice. My only concern is he might still be a bit green and wanting further but I will still be with him. LEAD SINGER (2) and DOPPIO ORO (3) have place chances and must be included in trifectas and quartets. (Warren Lenferna 8-2-3)
Preview: NASTY HARRY (1) is seldom far off the action but has been costly to follow. I am giving him one more chance. He is drawn well and bumps a medium field – each way claims. SILVER LEAGUE (6) is holding form and can go one better and pretty much the same thing can be said for PINK FLOYD (7) (Warren Lenferna 1-6-7)
Preview: LUMIERE (3) ran a fair race first time out the maidens and could go close here. She is lightly raced and might well have some more to offer. CHILLY WINTER (2) nearly won last time and has an outstanding chance again. REBELS SPIRIT (4) is holding form and would be deserving of another career win soon. She should be right there as usual. (Warren Lenferna 3-2-4)
Preview: SNOWY MOUNTAIN (4) is doing well post maiden and rates the one they all have to beat here. VFORVICTORY (8) finished third of nine last time and based on that effort can be in the first three again, if not a lot closer. EARL OF WARWICK (1) is off form at the moment but has some ability. He can do better and is the value selection here. (Warren Lenferna 4-8-1)
Turffontein Saturday Tips and Race Previews
PUBLISHED: August 24, 2019
Turffontein Saturday August 24 Tips and Race Previews by David Thiselton…
Turffontein Saturday Tips and Race Previews by David Thiselton
Preview: FLOWER OF SCOTLAND (10) made a good debut over this trip, beating Bridesmaid Blues and Set And Match by 0,25 lengths and a length respectively, and her high draw might be in her favour. BRIDESMAID BLUES (6) made a promising debut, beating Set And Match by 0,75 lengths over this trip, and the only concern is the low draw which can sometimes be unfavourable here. SET AND MATCH (4) is knocking on the door and her high draw is likely to be favourable. (David Thiselton 10-6-4)
Preview: ROYAL CAVALIER (5) disappointed last time but the winner that day was a firecracker from the off and from a favourable high draw and off an effective four point lower mark he could be in the shake up here. MOUNT KEITH (2) has a favourable high draw and comes off a good run over course and distance. LITHUANIAN’S DREAM (8) showed what he is capable of in his penultimate when thrashing the like of Royal Cavalier so he will be dangerous in the current fast going if bouncing out and going like he did that day. (David Thiselton 5-2-8)
Preview: INTOTHEMYSTIC (8) has plenty of zip and was squeezed out in the latter stages on debut so should be involved here. MARSHALL (10) is by Vercingetorix out of an unplaced Not For Sale mare who has produced a twice winner by Vercingetorix’s father Silvano. CAPTAIN HINDSIGHT (5) is by Captain Of All out of Listed-winning sprinter Uber Rock who has produced a Listed-winning speedster and a Listed-placed sprinter. MR MOGAMBO (11) made a good debut over course and distance but the low draw might be against him. BOLD RANSOM (3) is a R100,000 Bold Silvano colt out of an Irish-bred Red Ransom mare who won twice from 1000m to 1600m including winning in Britain. HOUSE MASTER (7) improved second time out and must be considered and in that case GOLDEN TUNE (6), who beat House Master when they met over this trip, also has to be considered. (David Thiselton 8-10-5-11-3-7-6)
Preview: FROSTED STEEL (8) by Captain Al is out of an unplaced Trippi mare but she is a three-parts sister to Grade 3 winning sprint-miler Captain In Command. VARNICA (16) is a R120,000 Var filly out of a Listed-placed Manshood mare who has produced a Grade 3-placed horse. HAWTHORN (9) is a R150,000 Flower Alley filly out of an unraced Tiger Ridge mare who is out of a Grade 1 Cape Fillies Guineas winner Emerald Beauty. (David Thiselton 8-16-9)
Preview: MY DREAM CHASER (6) is a promising sort and is well drawn here over an ideal trip. ABELIE (5) is progressive and is course and distance suited, JAMRA (2) has a tough draw but if able to overcome it can earn as she has won her only start over this suitable galloping course and distance. (6-5-2)
Preview: BIG MYTH (7) can dictate in this small field over a suitable course and distance. THE SASH (2) has won his only two starts over this trip. WORDYNESS (3) disappointed last time but can earn here. (David Thiselton 7-2-3)
Preview: SNORTING BULL (7) is not officially well in at the weights but strikes as one with some ability over this trip and he can follow up on his last win. FACTOR FIFTY (4) also has some promise as a stayer. DROMEDARIS (2) is the best weighted male in the race and has been in fair form over staying trips. (David Thiselton 7-4-2)
Preview: TOUGH CHOICE (4) ran a fair race first time out the maidens over 1800m and if able to find cover from a wide draw can run on. FRENCH LEAVE (1) just failed over 2400m last time and should be running on over this galloping course and distance. KURT’S APPROVAL (3) is none too reliable but in this field could be in the shake up. (David Thiselton 4-1-3)
Preview: DHABYAAN (3) ran a good race with first-time blinkers on over 1450m and now has a plum draw. AFRICAN ROCK (7) is a progressive sort who is course and distance suited and he goes for a hattrick. ARAPAHO (4) was only caught late when stepping up from sprints to 1600m last time and this trip might be ideal. TRIPPLE Z (2) has been doing well recently over 1600m and as he was one paced late last time he might enjoy the step down in trip from pole position. THE MAKWAKKERS (5) has shown ability and drops down to what appears to be a more suitable trip as he found nothing over 1800m last time. (David Thiselton 3-7-4-2-5)
Uncle Frank to face a hard task
PUBLISHED: August 23, 2019
Uncle Frank is 2,5kg under sufferance but his maiden win over 1600m has worked out well as the 1,75 length runner up has won his next two starts…
The Hollywoodbets Greyville poly has an eight race meeting on Sunday and punters could have a better time of it than they did on Wednesday.
In the first leg of the PA over 2000m the three-year-old Greys Inn gelding Uncle Frank is 2,5kg under sufferance but his maiden win over 1600m has worked out well as the 1,75 length runner up has won his next two starts. He also looks likely to enjoy this trip as quite a big immature sort who ran on well in that last start. However, he can’t be bankered with that hard task facing him. The back up is Samsonite, who won the last time he tried this course and distance and is now well drawn off an effective five point higher mark.
In the first leg of the Pick 6 Indigo Tractor and Velvet Season are both hard knocking course and distance suited four-year-olds and must both be included. The former is given the vote as he has a better draw. Myrrh is a frustrating sort to follow as he has ability but does not really put it in. However, he has a plum draw and will relish the step back up in trip, so is an outsider to consider.
In the first leg of the Jackpot over 2000m Highveld raider Gottalottaluv has always had plenty of talent and has a fine record over this trip with one win and four seconds in seven starts. If Luke Ferraris can find a good position for her from a tricky draw of six she should be right there, although this is the Var mare’s first run on the poly. Irish Wonder Girl is a four-year-old filly on the up and being by Irish Flame she loves this sort of trip. She has a plum draw of four and is going for a hattrick, so will be a big threat.
In the fifth over 1200m Johnny Black had some useful Cape Town form and after two runs in KZN should be cherry ripe. He stayed on over the tough Scottsville 1000m on his first KZN start so should enjoy this step up in trip. He has a plum draw of five and is effectively two points lower in the merit ratings so looks the one to beat. Bestday Of Mylife has been running over further in the strong centre of Cape Town, where merit ratings often become suppressed due to the high class of horse. From pole position he will be an interesting runner and must be included. Missibaba has two wins and three places in seven starts over this course and distance and has been competitive off this sort of mark before, so she could be a threat, although it is never easy against the boys.
In the sixth over 1200m Cherry Road starts off handicapping off a reasonable mark having showed natural pace on debut over 1000m and finding extra. She looks likely to relish the step up in trip, but does have a tough draw of ten. La Valette also has a tricky draw of eight but has the form to go close. Keep It Real ran an improved race last time under the improving 4kg claimer Jabu Jacobs and from a plum draw of four she could be in the shake up.
In the seventh over 1400m Mastagambit comes off a flying win over course and distance and has a fine chance of following up. Triple Fate Line is fulfilling the early promise he showed and this trip should be ideal so from draw two he can overcome the effective two point raise he was given for his 1600m win last time and be right there. Zanzibarian runs fresh over a trip sharper than ideal but has some class and will be staying on so must be included.
In the last race over 1400m Cavalieri went close on debut over 1400 on the turf. He was green and should improve, Jalapeno has a wide draw but has shown enough to be able to earn. Red Hot Night is a hard knocking distance suited four-year-old with a plum draw so he has to be included too.
The meeting starts with an uninspiring 1000m maiden for fillies and mares where the right one looks to be Dune Dance, who improved with blinkers on over this trip last time and was a touch unlucky as she was bumped early.
By David Thiselton
Snorting Bull can stay on well
PUBLISHED: August 23, 2019
In the seventh race, a Pinnacle Stakes event over 2400m, Snorting Bull is 2,5kg under sufferance with the best weighted Pilgrim’s Progress…
The Turffontein Standside course stages a typically competitive new season nine-race meeting tomorrow although there are some opportunities for punters.
In the seventh race, a Pinnacle Stakes event over 2400m, Snorting Bull is 2,5kg under sufferance with the best weighted Pilgrim’s Progress, but he looks to have promise as a stayer. He is a big horse with a good turn of foot and he showed last time he can stay on resolutely too, so he should relish the galloping course and distance. The Marchfield filly Factor Fifty is 1,5kg under sufferance with Pilgrim’s Progress but beat Snorting Bull by 1,75 lengths in her penultimate start. The latter likely needed it then and is also 3,5kg better off so should reverse the form, but Factor Fifty does strike as one who has promise as a stayer and she should now be coming into her own. Dromedaris is the best weighted male in the race according to official merit ratings and has been in fair form. None of the first three selected have good draws so others will have to be considered for the exotics.
In the fifth race My Dream Chaser looks to have promise and should be coming into her own. She was beaten 1,75 lengths by Saints Alive over course and distance in April but now has a plum draw and is 1,5kg better off in the weights so has a chance of reversing form, although she is returning from a 112 day absence. Her stablemate Abelie strikes as a progressive sort and should make a bold bid with Muzi Yeni up. She comes off a win over this trip on the Greyville poly under Yeni. Jamra is capable of a resolute finish from a handy or front-running position. Her best career run was over this course and distance and it was from a similarly wide draw to the one she has here.
In the second race over 1000m Royal Cavalier is held in good regard so it has been surprising he has not really come to the party when having easier tasks in handicaps. However, he has now dropped to a lowly mark and is drawn favourably high so could get it right. Mount Keith has the standside draw and was not disgraced last time in a Pinnacle event over course and distance behind the useful Prince Of Kahal. Lithuanian’s Dream has to be considered too as he showed what he was capable of in his penultimate start when blitzing the field.
In the sixth race Big Myth is an effective front-runner and with bottom weight. In a small field she should be able to dictate. On the downside she would prefer a touch further but she should make a bold bid. The Sash won her only start over this course and distance but has to bounce back from two below par runs over 1400m and 1450m respectively. Wordyness disappointed as the even money favourite last time over 1800m but might enjoy this trip as she did over race in her penultimate start over 2000m. None of the first three choices are well drawn, so it is a tricky race.
In the third race over 1160m Intothemystic showed plenty of zip on debut and was squeezed out in the latter stages so would have got closer. He should be improving being by Duke Of Marmalade and should go close. The first-timers who makes most appeal are Marshall, a Vercingetorix colt out of an unplaced Not For Sale mare who has produced a twice winner by Vercingetorix’s father Silvano, and Captain Hindsight, a Captain Of All gelding out of Listed-winning sprinter Uber Rock, who has produced a Listed-winning speedster and a Listed-placed sprinter.
The meeting starts with a tricky Workrider’s Maiden over 1000m and there is little between Flower Of Scotland, Bridesmaid Blues and Set And Match. However, the Roy Magner yard have been in good form so Flower Of Scotland is given the vote. By David Thiselton
Punters can land a Marcus double
PUBLISHED: August 23, 2019
Missisippi Burning beat everything except all-the-way scorer Calypso Beat ,despite being drawn wide, in a 14-runner maiden three weeks ago…
Adam Marcus can put punters in profit at Kenilworth tomorrow by landing a double with Missisippi Burning and Hello Winter Hello.
Missisippi Burning beat everything except all-the-way scorer Calypso Beat ,despite being drawn wide, in a 14-runner maiden three weeks ago and should have few problems confirming the placings with This Ones For Tony who lost ground at the start and was over six lengths back. Greg Cheyne, who rode the winner that day and is in brilliant form, takes over on the selection.
The Marcus runner is favourite for the Bellryck Financial Group Maiden at around 14-10 but money has come for the superbly bred Justin Snaith newcomer Sovereign Secret. This Dynasty filly is the second foal of All Is Secret, winner of the Allan Robertson, Thekwini and Mercury Sprint and was bought for R1 million at last year’s CTS Cape Premier. Despite the stamina influence of her sire, Richard Fourie’ mount should have speed to burn.
However, as has been mentioned in this column before, it can pay to bet against Snaith first timers because he always puts the horse’s long term future first. That said, it is significant that Richard Fourie rides her rather than stable companion Queen of Quiet who, although last in the Kenilworth Fillies Nursery, has a big chance on the form of her neck debut second.
Hello Winter Hello is 2-1 favourite for the Carnarvon Lodge Maiden and that looks a reasonable price. M.J. Byleveld’s mount was a promising fourth to the well-regarded Sailing Ship on debut last month and is bound to have come on from that.
Watch Me Now, 7-2 second favourite here, was second in a work riders’ race that day but that was a much weaker race and she looks unlikely to beat the Marcus runner.
Evening Song (9-2) has losses to recover after finishing with only two behind her when hot favourite here last time; the veterinary examination ordered by the stipes showed up nothing and here she is drawn widest of all and on what has proved to be the slower ground since the rains came.
Possibility (15-2) could be just that. She showed promise in a winners’ race on debut and started slowly. Callan Murray’s mount Mountain Ridge has been nibbled at – the Glen Kotzen newcomer is by Querari out of a Fort Wood mare.
Only One Like You, fourth in a fairly modest-looking maiden on debut, may be better than the bare form would suggest as he lost a front shoe during the race. He is taken to beat Lead Singer and Path Of Choice in the Goindustry Dovebid Maiden. Murray’s mount Doppio Oro has place prospects.
By Michael Clower