Kenilworth Saturday Tips and Race Previews
PUBLISHED: January 18, 2020
Kenilworth Saturday January 18 Tips and Race Previews by Warren Lenferna…
Kenilworth Saturday Tips and Race Previews by Warren Lenferna
Preview: BOWIE (1) is a Twice Over colt from a top yard and gets the services of a top rider – he could make a winning debut. PRAY FOR RAIN (6) was backed on debut, ran well and can be followed. Stable mate FORT MCHENRY (2) could place on debut. (Warren Lenferna 1-6-2)
Preview: PACIFIC RIM (2) looks ready to win. Plenty of cheek can be expected from RED ROCK CANYON (3) as he improved last time when tried over the course and distance and MR FERGIE (4) is knocking loudly at the door and should again be right there – respect. (Warren Lenferna 2-3-4)
Preview: VOICE OF REASON (11) looks a promising sort, went close last time and can now win! WHAT A FLIRT (3) had excuses last time and is more than capable of running a cracker here and STILL TAPPIN (4) is has the form to win and gets Anton Marcus again. (Warren Lenferna 11-3-4)
Preview: IN AURO (1) should be better this distance and races with no blinkers (carded at time of going to print -check the changes on race day) he looks tough to beat here. LIVE WIRE (9) and WINTER CHORD (8) are the value selections for the places. (Warren Lenferna 1-9-8)
Preview: AZORES (2) is a progressive three year old, has won two from his last three and can continue on winning ways. He is now a gelding! WINTER IS OVER (6) needed his last run and can do better now and CAPTAIN TURK (10) has a bright chance as does KURSK (7) and VFORVICTORY (5) – include them both in the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 2-6-10)
Preview: WALDORF ASTORIA (3) improved last time and might well be ready to record her third career win – she motored home last time over 1200m where the line came just too soon. SPRINGISINTHEAIR (2) looks progressive, won her maiden well last time and could be anything – follow. ELUSIVE RAIN (7) improved last time with blinkers – the head gear remains and she can place again. (Warren Lenferna 3-2-7)
Preview: GOLD MEDAL (7) is seldom far off the action and comes into the race with strong each way claims. Keagan De Melo is in town to do duty. SELAILAI (9) has run some fair races in PE but has a quartet chance here and PINK FLOYD (3) is holding his form and should be involved in the finish. (Warren Lenferna 7-9-3)
Preview: STOPALLTHECLOCKS (1) only got going late last time – he seems to be a super sprinter at this stage and rates tough to beat. WORLDS YOUR OYSTER (8) was an impressive debut winner and could be absolutely anything – follow and include! AQUA BOLT (4) has a quartet chance and should run very well. (Warren Lenferna 1-8-4)
Turffontein Saturday Tips and Race Previews
PUBLISHED: January 18, 2020
Turffontein Saturday January 18 Tips and Race Previews by David Thiselton…
Turffontein Saturday Tips and Race Previews by David Thiselton
Preview: MEERCAT (11) improved to run second over 1400m second time out and should enjoy the step up in trip on pedigree. FIREWORKS (3) is knocking on the door and being by Oratorio should improve further so she will go close from a plum draw over a suitable trip. OLIVIA (13) has gone close in two starts over 1200m and 1400m and being by Oratorio out of a Galileo mare she should both be improving and enjoy the step up in trip so can go close if able to overcome a tricky draw. (David Thiselton 11-3-13)
Preview: GENERAL JACKSON (4) has run well against some fair sorts and did well over this trip last time so is the one to beat from a high draw which not bother him too much as he is capable of running on from off the pace. ENRIQUE (5) by Soft Falling Rain has run three fair races over a touch shorter and being out of a Graded-placed middle distance to staying mare out of Fort Wood, she should relish the step up in trip. BLUE SPARK (3) has fair form and should stay the trip but he did make a breathing noise last time. (David Thiselton 4-5-3)
Preview: SIDONIE (1) is likely gearing up for a classic campaign and should win this despite a wide draw. CHRISTMAS FLOWER (2) goes for a hattrick over this trip and will be a threat, although she also has a wide draw. SECRET DREAM (7) just failed last time over this trip in a handicap with a first time tongue tie on. She thus proved worthy of her 95 merit rating. In her previous start she was thrashed by Christmas Flower but I can be ignored as she choked up. (David Thiselton 1-2-7)
Preview: WAQAAS (2) is proven effective over this trip and should be right there despite a tricky draw. WRITTEN IN STONE (5) has been finishing well over 1400n and now has Lerena up, albeit from a tough draw. DARKEST HOUR (6) is in good form and is drawn in pole over a suitable trip. (David Thiselton 2-5-6)
Preview: LIBERADO (5) won easily over 1600m last time and off a five point higher merit rating can go close here as he looks to have turned the corner. WESTERN FORT (4) won well second time out over 1900m and starts handicapping off a reasonable merit rating. SO LONG SPRING (13) ran well over this trip last time with first-time blinkers on and has a similar draw here. (David Thiselton 5-4-13)
Preview: SHENANIGANS (3) is drawn in pole and will relish the step back up to this trip. AMERICAN INDIAN (2) went close in his penultimate start over this course and distance. DAWN ASSAULT (1) is honest and has some class over staying trips. (David Thiselton 3-2-1)
Preview: SARAGON (3) should be cherry ripe and is well drawn over a suitable course and distance. SOCIAL ORDER (1) went close in his penultimate start over 1475m in the Grand Heritage so will enjoy this trip from a good draw. LEOPOLD (8) has a tricky draw but looks talented and comes off a good win over course and distance. (David Thiselton 3-1-8)
Preview: POP ICON (2) is progressive and distance suited so can overcome a three point raise from pole position. CATEGORY FOUR (9) is ideally distance suited and has a fair draw although the rider carries 1kg overweight. LAZARUS TREE (7) is capable of popping up if things go his way and they might do from a good draw. (David Thiselton 2-9-7)
Preview: CAPTAIN HINDSIGHT (2) has been given a reasonable opening merit rating and can go close. PEARL OF SIBERIA (3) has a favourable high draw and can do better than last time. REBEL RENEGADE (8) has dropped to the mark of his last win and has a favourable high draw. (David Thiselton 2-3-8)
Play Voice Of Reason by ear
PUBLISHED: January 17, 2020
The Gavin van Zyl filly is again ridden by Keagan de Melo and has opened favourite at 22-10. She is reasonably drawn and probably has most to fear from…
Voice Of Reason, having only her second start when beaten a neck over this course and distance on Cape Guineas day, looks the part for the Racing Association Maiden Plate at Kenilworth tomorrow.
The Gavin van Zyl filly is again ridden by Keagan de Melo and has opened favourite at 22-10. She is reasonably drawn and probably has most to fear from 9-2 shot Still Tappin who was two and a quarter lengths behind last time despite coming back with a cut on a hind leg and making an abnormal respiratory noise (not a good sign).
Foxy Lady (7-1) was three-quarters of a length further back and may again make the frame but one to bear in mind is the Hassen Adams-owned What A Flirt (9-2). She was found to be not striding out when a disappointing favourite on her most recent start but she was only beaten a short head previously and she is the highest rated of the eight who have been given a mark.
All except the first three of the seven two-year-old races run in Cape Town this season have been won by a horse who has had the advantage of a previous run – but it could be worth taking a chance with 28-10 newcomer Bowie in the opening Maiden Juvenile Plate.
Nothing sensational about the colt’s pedigree – although the R220 000 Cape Yearling Sale purchase is By Twice Over out of a National Assembly mare who won as a two-year-old – but he is trained by Sean Tarry who did not bring him all the way from Johannesburg just to run a place. And it is surely significant that Anton Marcus has taken the mount.
The Dennis Drier-trained Pray For Rain, odds-on when only fourth of six on debut, is again favourite here. He had last Saturday’s runaway scorer Erik The Red a length and a half behind but the filly Musical Glitch (33-10) has perhaps the strongest claims on form.
Mr Fergie (22-10) is rated 1.5kg behind 12-10 favourite Pacific Rim in the 1 400m maiden (race two) but the Eric Sands gelding couldn’t get a clear run at a crucial stage on New Year’s Eve and might have finished in front of Red Rock Canyon had he done so. He gets the vote to make amends although it should be noted that Red Rock Canyon over-raced last time.
In Auro has to give weight all round in the Betting World Maiden Handicap but Marcus’s mount is favourite and looks the one they all have to beat.
By Michael Clower
Beware of horses for courses
PUBLISHED: January 17, 2020
Born To Perform has done very little wrong for Dennis Bosch and finished ahead of GG’S Dynasty when the two met at their penultimate start…
Horses for courses is a well-worn phrase but does hold a lot of water and there are a few course specialists lining up for the Michael Roberts Handicap at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Sunday. This could well apply to GG’S Dynasty as Brett Crawford’s runner has won three of his five starts at the track and finished second in another.
More pertinently was his performance last time out as he quickened away from his rivals to win as he liked. Granted, it was not the strongest of fields but it was the manner of victory that impressed and he can take it to another level when he takes on some hard-knocking handicappers. He has the best of the draw, a handy weight and Anton Marcus to help his cause but he will need a lot to go his way in a seriously competitive handicap.
Born To Perform has done very little wrong for Dennis Bosch and finished ahead of GG’S Dynasty when the two met at their penultimate start. The former has a 1kg pull in the weights to add to his appeal, that coupled with the fact that he only has 53.5kg to shoulder.
In their only previous meeting, GG’S Dynasty ran out a narrow winner over Sunday’s course and distance so there should again be very little between the two.
Another course specialist and last year’s winner is Wealthy. Dennis Drier’s charge has recorded five of his six wins on the course and gave notice of a return to form when running the much improved Merin From Berlin to a neck in a Chapter Challenge final, giving his rival 9kg. Merlin From Berlin subsequently won again to bolster Wealthy’s form.
Two other runners with solid credentials are The Dazzler and Blackball.
Few who were at Scottsville when The Dazzler shed his maiden will forget that run. Making his debut against winners for James Goodman, he motored home from a seemingly hopeless position beating some useful performers in the process. When Goodman handed in his licence The Dazzler went to Mike de Kock where he won another three races.
The gelding has his issues but Gareth Van Zyl appears to have got on top of them and in a performance reminiscent of his maiden win, he cut down Born To Perform like he was standing still to win the Christmas Handicap.
Given his style of running, 14 draw will not be a problem but finding a way through the traffic may be!
Blackball has been in good form and although finishing out of the money in the Christmas Handicap he was little over a length behind The Dazzler and finishing off nicely. The extra furlong will also suit so he is a must inclusion in all exotics.
Punters face a generally tricky card but two that stand out as possible bankers are Baby Shooz in the fifth and Marsanne in the sixth.
Baby Shooz was unlucky last run when close-up from a wide draw and Anton Marcus losing his off-side rein for a couple of strides which may have cost him the race. Baby Shooz looks useful and can make amends. Admiral’s Guest has a tricky draw to contend with but has been close-up in his last three while Galway was a recent maiden winner but has only had two runs back after a lengthy break and looks to be on the up.
Marsanne too was a touch unlucky when touched off by course specialist Celebration Rock in a Chapter Challenge final. She looks the part but if she fails then the list of possible winners is a long one. Naoshima has her third run after a lengthy break and should strip at her peak and turn the tables on Petra who is always dangerous and only got going late last run. She can do better over the extra furlong. Purple Nkanyezi showed up well first run out of the maidens and although she takes on stronger she has a handy weight while Talia Al Ghul and Linear should also be considered although the latter is a difficult customer; more than capable but not always reliable.
By Andrew Harrison
Captain Hindsight maybe hard to oppose
PUBLISHED: January 17, 2020
It is difficult to identify a Pick 6 banker and Captain Hindsight is given the accolade without much confidence. He runs in the last race over 1000m…
The Turffontein meeting on Saturday is tricky and the exotics look to be the way to play.
It is difficult to identify a Pick 6 banker and Captain Hindsight is given the accolade without much confidence. He runs in the last race over 1000m. It is never easy to win first time out the maidens but he had decent maiden form and looked to have been reasonably treated by the handicappers when given an 81 merit rating. Furthermore, he has a 2,5kg claimer aboard. His form includes close seconds to the useful pair Donderweer and Battleoftrafalgar and he beat the improving Blow Me Down cosily last time out. Pearl Of Siberia has decent recent form and is better than his last start. Rebel Renegade has fallen to the mark of his last win. Both have favourable high draws and would have been included if the budget had allowed.
The earlier legs of the Pick 6 all look to be competitive.
In the first leg Waqaas is proven over this trip and is knocking on the door off his current merit rating. However, as a handy to front-running type his draw of nine makes it tough. Written In Stone has been running on too late over 1400m so is interesting stepped up to this trip, although he has a tough draw. Darkest Hour is distance suited and in good form so has a shout from pole position. The Rocketman is talented and will be dangerous if bouncing back with pacifiers on off a much reduced merit rating. Chipofftheoldblok and Jackman also warrant consideration. Lasair was the hardest to leave out and it was due to his tough draw and three point higher merit rating.
In the next leg Liberado won easily last time and is interesting stepped up in trip off a five point higher mark as he looks to have turned the corner. Western Fort won well second time out and could be going places. So Long Spring improved with blinkers last time. Seeking Gold is three points higher for his course and distance win in his penultimate start and has a fair draw. Pink has dropped to a competitive mark and Rockstar Child and Oyster King could be thereabouts if producing their best.
The next is a small field staying event and the suggestion is to include all seven runners.
In the seventh over 1400m Saragon, Social Order and Leopold all have a touch of class and should fight it out.
In the eight race over 1400m Pop Icon is coming into his own and from pole position could make it three wins from his last four starts. Category Four has caught the eye on occasion and should be running on strongly over a suitable course and distance. Lazarus Tree is full of ability but needs things to go his way. They might do so from a good draw of three.
By David Thiselton