Durbanville Saturday Tips and Race Previews
PUBLISHED: October 19, 2019
Durbanville Saturday October 19 Tips and Race Previews by Warren Lenferna…
Durbanville Saturday Tips and Race Previews by Warren Lenferna
Preview: AYE AYE (1) starts from draw one and takes on only six others runners – if she cannot get it right today, she might battle in the future! She is improving and looks to be a very hard horse to beat. SWEET KARMA (2) disappointed last time but should be able to go close based on her good penultimate race and overall efforts thus far. FREEDOM SEEKER (4) finished fifth on debut not far off the winner and can improve now to get into the first three – respect. (Warren Lenferna 1-2-4)
Preview: PATH OF CHOICE (5) finished last in the Langerman, came out of the Langerman, won his maiden and then won again – he has been selected to reel off the hat trick and can be followed. WILD COAST (6) trounced the opposition last time when winning his maiden at only the second time of asking. He looks useful and should make his presence felt. HARDFALLINRAIN (4) disappointed in a feature last time but a much better effort can be expected in this. (Warren Lenferna 5-6-4)
Preview: LOOKS LIKE MAGIC (6) looks like a very nice progressive filly and she showed that in her second start. The others with form have had a few chances and this daughter of Visionaire who now gets the services of visiting rider Keagan De Melo looks very hard to beat. HOW AND WHY (2) is the immediate danger – she is lightly raced and is improving with racing – she is the exacta choice and EVENING SONG (3) has already been a beaten favourite twice but she should win her maiden soon. (Warren Lenferna 6-2-3)
Preview: IRON HENRY (3) more than likely needed his local debut but was far from disgraced finishing fifth to Camp David. He should be much tighter now from the race and rates a winning chance. EMPIRE GLORY (2) is a case of what you see is what you get but I am more than happy to give him more credit that that – his last run was good which suggests to me that his maiden win is coming soon! CAPKUTA (5) has a bright place chance again. (Warren Lenferna 3-2-5)
Preview: STAR FIGHTER (2) is holding form and seldom too far off the winners. She finished close up behind talented Front And Centre last time and that sort of form line should be good enough to win a race like this. DUCHESS OF BOURBON (4) won the Oaks last time and again looks to be a serious runner – respect and include and CASTELLANO (9) off a light weight can get into the thick of things and is worth including in the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 2-4-9)
Preview: Could it be as easy as 1,2,3? Yes, TWIST OF FATE (1) wants further, yes, he is having his first run back from the KZN season, yes, he might need it but I feel that even if needing it, he can still make a winning comeback. He is classy and has tons of talent, these top horses overcome these negatives and can still win – he is my firm first choice. CHARLES (2) and MAJESTIC MOZART (3) are also returning from rests but have the form to be seriously competitive. They must be respected and included in most bets. (Warren Lenferna 1-2-3)
Preview: Another small field! GOOD TO KNOW (1) clearly relished the mile last time and now gets even further – he can go one better. WINTER IS OVER (3) has the consistent form to be very competitive and he should not be a maiden for too much longer and pretty much the same thing can be said for MORSE (2). Respect his chances. (Warren Lenferna 1-3-2)
Preview: WINTER SHADOW (8) ran very well last time which was his first time out the maidens – he showed up nicely that occasion which bodes well for today and the future. He has very strong each way claims. ANSE LAZIO (1) loves the distance but has to carry top weight but still should be able to go close and KHOPESH (5) won his maiden by just over seven lengths – it would be no shock if he were to follow up. (Warren Lenferna 8-1-5)
Turffontein Saturday Tips and Race Previews
PUBLISHED: October 19, 2019
Turffontein Saturday Tips and Race Previews by David Thiselton…
Turffontein Saturday Tips and Race Previews by David Thiselton
Preview: PURE STATE (13), who was green on debut over 1200 around the turn and came from a long way back to run third, will relish the step up in trip and with expected improvement is the one to beat. CONVEXITY (9) is by Gimmethegreenlight and is a half-brother to the top class Surcharge. BASSAM (4) appears to be the stable elect on jockey bookings and having been slow away and green on debut over 1000m he should relish this step up in trip and is well drawn. MAJESTIC THUNDER (12) is drawn wide but can do better over this step up in trip having gone close on debut over 1160m before over-racing in a 1600m contest last time. CAPTAINS FORT (7) is a R75,000 Elusive Fort gelding out of a twice-winning Captain Al mare.(David Thiselton 13-9-4-12-2)
Preview: MOUNT LAUREL (5) impressed when improving second time out over 1200m and she can remain unbeaten over a step up in trip she will relish. MAWSOOL (1) is drawn in pole and from pole position can bounce back having faded when leading last time. RISK TAKER (3) is capable of staying on well and goes for a hattrick over a suitable trip. (David Thiselton 5-1-3)
Preview: TALLINN (6) is going the right way and is still reasonably merit rated, although it is never easy against the boys. ILLUSION (2) has a chance if starting better than he did last time. ETCHED IN BLUE (5) ran well with first-time blinkers on over this course and distance, albeit from a better draw, and being by Oratorio can continue to improve. (David Thiselton 6-2-5)
Preview: EX’S ‘N OHS (6) is drawn in pole and a repeat of her last run should see her going close. OCEANIA (9) will be improving, being by Ideal World and she will go close if starting better than last time. VISCOUNTESS VIVIEN (2) has a tricky draw but is capable of a strong finish so can be dropped out. (David Thiselton 6-9-2)
Preview: SILVER SPECTRUM (5) is a typically improving Silvano four-year-old and can follow up on his last win despite a five point raise. GREEN HAZE (2) is well regarded and now has his third run after a layoff and gelding so should be right there. POPSICLE TOES (6) has improved and was a touch unlucky last time over 2000m and with Kennedy aboard the draw is not too much of a concern. (David Thiselton 5-2-6)
Preview: LA BELLA MIA (2) is distance WINTER STORM (5) will have come on from his last start and if recapturing his best with first-time blinkers on he will go close although he has a tough draw. WARRIOR’S REST (4) is a highly effective front-runner but this is a touch sharp and he might battle to reach the front. (David Thiselton 2-5-4)
Preview: OURO (2) has class and can go close if positioned well from a tough draw. DOUBLE ‘O’ EIGHT (1) also has class and can use her good turn of foot to pass them after being dropped out from a wide draw, although it won’t be easy with a welter burden. THREE STARS (9) should beat Ouro according to the form of their last meeting and she has a fair draw but the latter probably needed that run. (David Thiselton 2-1-9)
Preview: MARGOT’S MAGIC (4) ran a fine second last time, splitting two promising sorts, and she will be right there if able to overcome a tough draw. VIRTUOSA (3) makes her seasonal reappearance and from a good draw with a 2,5kg claimer up her class could pull her through. IMPRESSIVE DUCHESS (2) just failed last time from pole position over this course and distance and she is drawn in pole again. (David Thiselton 4-3-2)
Preview: TRUE CHARM (4) has not been disgraced against some useful sorts and from a plum draw should go close. TOKOLOSH (9) shows promise and won well with first time blinkers on so can do well here from pole over a suitable trip. PILLAROFTHEEARTH (2) has a fair draw and has dropped to a competitive merit rating. (David Thiselton 4-9-2)
White Lightning is set to strike
PUBLISHED: October 18, 2019
Lafferty says both of his runners are in with strong chances. “White Lightning and Our Coys are both big runners,” he said yesterday…
The Michaelmas Handicap (Listed) has attracted only eight runners, disappointing in terms of numbers for the R150k stake, but that said, sorting out a pecking order is no easy task.
It may prove prudent to look among the bottom weights for a likely winner where Paul Lafferty’s runners get lumps of weight in the 1900m contest on the turf at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Sunday.
The pick of the Lafferty runners could be White Lightning who has his third run after a break and now tries blinkers. The grey has only recorded a single victory in his 14 starts but has only been out of the money on four occasions and has placed against some useful opposition. He was far from disgraced when just under three lengths back to the promising Jack Of Hearts last time out, giving the winner 7kg. Lafferty has probably had the Michaelmas pencilled in for his colt a way back as he goes well over course and distance. With a light weight and blinkers on for the first time, he could prove the one to beat.
Lafferty says both of his runners are in with strong chances. “White Lightning and Our Coys are both big runners,” he said yesterday. “The half-cups are on White Lightning just to get him to concentrate,” he said.
Frank Robinson has probably had similar plans for his filly Arianos Shadow who caught the eye in her last two starts over 1400m. She was staying on stoutly in both those races and the step up to 1900m with only 53kg on her back could make her a handful.
Of the balance, The Dazzler has a big weight but is always honest and although Blackball returns from a four-month break and may just need it, he will go close on his best form.
Mike de Kock is back in two and saddles two runners with strong chances, Port Key in the fourth and Balletto in the eighth.
Balletto shows some promise and is sure to be among the fancied runners, many of whom have poor draws to contend with. She is a lightly raced daughter of the ill-fated stallion Soft Falling Rain whose progeny have come to light in recent weeks. Her pedigree suggests that Sunday’s 1400m will be right up her alley and she may prove to be the one to beat.
Lowan Denysschen is enjoying a good spell of late and he saddles Eternal Words, successful in three of her ast five starts including a recent victory over Liquid Irish. She has the benefit of an inside gate and young apprentice Jason Gates has an enviable record aboard the mare.
But the list of possible winners is a long one. Obvious dangers Spam Alert, Linear and Je Ne Sais Quoi have drawn in Marriott Road – not the best place to be in a 1400m dash.
Port Key lines up in a seriously competitive handicap in the fourth race and opening leg of the Pick 6 – there are nine races on the card.
Dean Kannemeyer saddles the progressive Favour who bids for his fourth race on the bounce. He was cleverly placed when winning a lowly merit rated handicap on the poly last time out and takes a jump in class this time around. However, he does come from a very much in form stable and has a handy galloping weight.
Clouds Of Witness is consistent and Gary Rich’s runner caught the eye when two lengths back to Noble Joshua in his warm-up for this event. He will much prefer this trip and with a good draw will make them gallop.
Port Key arrives with useful Highveld form, no further back than second in his four starts, and the lightly raced four-year-old is likely to start at the top of the boards.
Kannemeyer could provide two of the better bets on the card in Ice Baron in the first leg of the PA and Silva Magic in the fifth.
By Andrew Harrison
Hard to oppose ‘Fate’
PUBLISHED: October 18, 2019
But he often prefers to scratch a horse if he can’t find a rider he considers suitable – and this one is the stable star…
Twist Of Fate is well-nigh impossible to oppose in the Tellytrack.com Pinnacle Stakes at Durbanville tomorrow but punters should hold fire until such time as they are sure that the horse is going to run.
The colt was the only one declared without a jockey on Monday and I was unable to contact Joey Ramsden on Tuesday or again yesterday morning. But he often prefers to scratch a horse if he can’t find a rider he considers suitable – and this one is the stable star.
He has only been unplaced once in 16 starts and has earned over R3 million. Last season he won the Cape Classic over tomorrow’s trip as well as the Politician and the KRA Guineas. He was second in the Cape Guineas, CTS 1600 and Daily News while he was also third in the Vodacom Durban July and the Concorde.
Just as much to the point he has 5kg in hand on adjusted ratings. True, he is drawn eight out of 12 and has not raced for nearly three months but neither should stop him.
He was trading at a generous-looking 15-10 yesterday, with original main market rival Charles drifting from 9-2 to 6-1, but the Brett Crawford runner is also having his first run of the season. Furthermore he is badly drawn and needs further.
If the favourite does not run then Sacred Arrow could be the best bet. His price will, of course, shorten significantly from his present 11-2 but this is his trip, he is well drawn and has had an outing. “He should go well,” says Candice Bass-Robinson. “He needed his run when seventh (beaten less than three lengths) in the Matchem but he would have been a bit closer with a decent draw.”
Star Chestnut is a big price at 18-1 for a Snaith-Fourie runner, particularly with the combination in such hot form, but he was only tenth in the Matchem.
Keagan de Melo, who rides Charles, could have his work cut out to overcome the widest draw of all in the TAB Telebet Conditions Plate but Star Fighter has the most appealing recent form as she was fifth in the Diana. Unfortunately much of the value has gone with her price shortening from 4-1 to 5-2.
Duchess Of Bourbon (Snaith/Fourie) was the original favourite and, while she won the Winter Oaks, that was over 600m further than this and she is held by the selection on previous Stormsvlei Mile form.
By Michael Clower
La Bella Mia gets the nod
PUBLISHED: October 18, 2019
The latter race is difficult to analyse, but Grade 2 Post Merchants winner La Bella Mia is given the nod. She has a wide draw to overcome but will be fit…
This time of the year is traditionally greatly looked forward to by the more astute and patient punters of the SA racing fraternity as it heralds the arrival of the summer rains and trainers have their best horses tuned like machines to take advantage of the more forgiving going.
Unfortunately the rains are yet to arrive and there is no sign of them in the forecast this weekend, where the highlight is a MR 104 Handicap over 1200m.
The latter race is difficult to analyse, but Grade 2 Post Merchants winner La Bella Mia is given the nod. She has a wide draw to overcome but will be fit, having had recent runs, and has a 4kg claimer up. She has won over this course and distance before and many of the opponents she faces have question marks against them. If she gets the necessary luck in running she will go close.
Winter Storm struck as one who was headed for the top in the sprinting division last season but by the end of the term he needed a layoff and disappointed in his last couple of starts. He should have come on from his comeback run last time. Interestingly, the blinkers have been removed and with Warren Kennedy aboard he has every chance of overcoming a tough draw.
Warrior’s Rest is a highly effective front-runner but such is his style, in which he continually ups the pace, it is essential he gets to the front as he lacks turn of foot when sitting behind a slow pace. This trip is too sharp, so he could battle to get to the front, but he is well drawn so might be worth including. State Trooper is capable of running on so is interesting from a tricky draw. Attenborough had a disappointing last season but this Grade 1 winner can’t be ignored over an ideal trip from a plum draw.
In the previous race, a MR 99 Handicap over 1800m, Silver Spectrum appears to be on the up and can follow up on his last win off a five point higher mark. Green Haze has some class and will be a threat. He has run once over this trip and appeared to not stay. However, he is now having his third run after a layoff and gelding so he should be given another chance, especially being by miler Gimmethegreenlight out of a Western Winter mare who won twice over this trip. Popsicle Toes looks to be an ever improving sort and he will also be right there over a suitable trip if able to overcome a tough draw.
In the seventh race, a MR 92 handicap for fillies and mares, Ouro is the narrow first choice. She has some class and has bounced back to form this season after ending last season on a disappointing note. Double ‘O’ Eight has a tough draw and a welter 61,5kg to carry but has a fine turn of foot, so if finding a good position in the running she will go close. Three Stars improved last time with second time blinkers on when running second, finishing three-quarters of a length in front of Ouro. She has a good draw, but is half-a-kilogram worse off with Ouro, who likely needed that run. Blonde Vision is a small but zippy sort and with first-time blinkers on she can’t be ignored. Twelve Oaks is capable of popping up and is effective over this trip so will be dangerous from a plum draw with a 4kg claimer aboard.
It should be an enjoyable meeting but many will be keenly anticipating the arrival of the summer rains.
By David Thiselton