Kenilworth Saturday tips and race previews by Warren Lenferna
PUBLISHED: July 28, 2017
Kenilworth Saturday July 29 tips and race previews by Warren Lenferna…
Preview: HERODUS ran a close up second last time and looks to have an ideal opportunity of winning here. HARVEY SPECTOR is seldom far off and can go very close in this race. TALL MO has started to improve since racing with blinkers and is a natural inclusion in the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 10-2-3)
Preview: WOODSTOCK FAIRY showed good improvement from run one to run two and if improving again, will be a very hard horse to beat. OSTINATO was a well beaten second last time but her overall form is good enough to suggest that she should not be a maiden for too much longer. GOA can improve to earn her first stake cheque. (Warren Lenferna 13-10-5)
Preview: BENDY BULLET was staying on last time to finish third. She has run twice and notched up two places – she has obvious very strong winning claims. RUSH HOUR GIRL is doing well and Greg Cheyne retains the ride which is always a positive sign. Her chances are bright. TOWNSHIP MELODY has not really shone as yet but one gets the impression that with racing she will improve and is worth including in the play. (Warren Lenferna 4-8-12)
Preview: LOVE TO FLY put up a very good post maiden effort which is encouraging for the future. He tries the 1400m for the first time which he should relish. APOLLO STAR is a recent maiden winner but he did win well and if he were to follow up it would be no shock at all. FLASH TWICE has improved with each outing to the races and a huge run can be expected from him – he is a maiden taking on winners which won’t be easy but he might very well be up to the task. (Warren Lenferna 2-1-5)
Preview: MIDNIGHT MOONLIGHT made a very smart winning debut and looks to have tons of ability. She has confidently been selected to win again and keep her record squeaky clean! MERYSAGOS has been knocking hard at the door and should not be a maiden for too much longer. FAVOLA had a very valid excuse for running below par first time out the maidens and can be given another chance – respect. (Warren Lenferna 2-4-1)
Preview: PLATINUM PRINCE is in top winning form. He looks to be a very progressive sort that will make his way through the divisions. He is the one they will all have to beat. KING OF THE CORN is also in top winning form but does return from a rest of 102 days. He might be best over 2000m but in saying that has done well over today’s trip too. WAITING FOR RAIN has a place chance. (Warren Lenferna 4-3-6)
Preview: Trainer Andre Nel holds a very strong hand here and his two runners could fight this out. LOVE TO BOOGIE and AHOY ME MATEY don’t have much between them. NORDIC BREEZE should be right there at the finish. (Warren Lenferna 11-12-1)
Preview: SPENDING SPREE is knocking hard at the door and is way overdue her second win – today looks to be the day. PRIMROSE LANE and MISS MARKER must be considered for the exacta position. (Warren Lenferna 6-2-1)
Preview: TWO BROTHERS ran well last time showing that his penultimate run was all wrong – strong each way chance here. NORDIC CHANT was staying on last time and deserves healthy respect again. OFF BROADWAY is now becoming very costly to follow and keeps fining one to beat him – strong place chance again. (Warren Lenferna 4-14-1)
Rhythm on the right path
PUBLISHED: July 28, 2017
Desert Rhythm looks a good bet to build on her Grade 2 Golden Slipper win on July Day with victory in the Gr1 Thekwini Stakes at Greyville on Sunday…
The Grade 1 Thekwini Stakes over 1600m is always one of the trickiest races on Gold Cup day as the form is relatively unexposed and the young fillies improve at different rates.
Desert Rhythm is the favourite having won the Grade 2 Gold Circle Golden Slipper over 1400m, despite the race not panning out perfectly for her. She was caught one wide in a handy position and shifted outward at the top of the straight, so she did well to still find an extra gear to win. On pedigree and on that performance this Mambo In Seattle filly should enjoy the trip and has a fair draw.
The classy and unbeaten Dynasty filly Lady In Black had to overcome a wide draw last time over 1400m on the poly and didn’t have cover in her handy position, so did well to find extra in the straight before pulling away in the closing stages. She beat the Listed Devon Air Stakes runner up Sequined cosily by 1,75 lengths. On that showing and on pedigree she will love the step up in trip, but on the downside she has a wide draw to overcome.
Folk Dance is unbeaten in three starts from 1200-1450m on the Highveld and last time she beat the promising and previously unbeaten Aurelia Cotta. Her form compares favourably with Desert Rhythm’s. She has drawn very wide, but Anton Marcus aboard is a bonus.
Meryl ran on well from way back to win the Devon Air Stakes over 1400m and the form compares favourably with the Golden Slipper form. She is drawn wide but Anthony Delpech stays aboard.
Holly Vision went handy from a wide draw in the Devon Air and stayed on well for third and was rallying at the line. She has a plum draw.
Rockin Russian stayed on well for fourth in both the Devon Air and Golden Slipper and on those showings this Seventh Rocky filly should handle this trip, so she should be right there from a good draw.
Flichity By Farr had to be pushed all the way last time over course and distance in a Maiden Juvenile Plate, but produced a strong finish and the form has worked out quite well.
Too Phat Too Fly represents some strong Cape form and is a definite contender although her eight draw is tricky.
Illegal finished just two lengths behind Golden Slipper runner up Let It Flow over 1200m on debut and was then an impressive winner over 1160m. She is a half-sister to Silver Class, whose best trip is 1400m, but she covers a lot of ground.
Mara had the run of the race in the Golden Slipper, but was already beaten when baulked late, although she did rally and could have got closer, so she can’t be ignored.
Frederico’s Dream beat Illegal by 1,8 lengths when making her debut over 1200m and won next time over the same trip. She looks held by Folk Dance on strict subsequent formlines, but she is one of the dark horses as one who is likely to relish the step up in trip and she is well drawn under Piere Strydom.
Just My Style has a nice stride, but her form is questionable.
Sorceress beat an uninspiring maiden field cosily second time out when stepped up to 1400m.
Le Bella Mia has good sprint form, but over raced in front when stepped up to 1300m in the KZN Sales Million.
The selection is Desert Rhythm to beat Lady In Black. The well drawn pair Frederico’s Dream and Holly Vision should relish the step up in trip and are chosen to follow them home. However, it is especially hard to ignore Folk Dance and Meryl, while Too Phat To Fly and Rockin Russian also stick in the mind, while Illegal, who is not the biggest filly but covers plenty of ground, and Flichity by Farr, who has the potential to shine if less reluctant in the running, are dark horses who also make some appeal in a typically tough-to-analyse Thekwini.
By David Thiselton
Bank on ‘America’
PUBLISHED: July 28, 2017
There could be a possible pick 6 banker in the form of Captain America running in the World Sports Betting Champions Cup on Saturday July 29…
The Pick 6, Jackpot and PA will be popular on the Gold Cup Festival Of Racing weekend and on day one those who do their homework should reap healthy dividends.
The Grade 1 WSB Champions Cup over 1800m yields a possible Pick 6 banker in Captain America. He has the advantage of coming in fresh and it is his third place finish in this year’s very strong Grade 1 Sun Met over 2000m which puts him a cut above the rest of the field. He proved this point by winning the Grade 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge when going handy off a strong pace and kicking away. He has the identical draw of ten in this race. Bela-Bela was a touch unlucky in the Gold Challenge and could have got closer than a 1,75 length third, but a mile is probably her best trip. However, she has won two Grade 1s from 1800-2000m and from draw eight will make her presence felt in her swansong. Marinaresco proved in the Vodacom Durban July there is only one way for him to race and that is to be held up, so he will be hoping for a decent pace in the defence of his crown.
Those three are the fancies for the exotics, but some will choose to go wider. Sail South could win a Grade 1 if he ever settled as he over races in all of his runs yet still placed in both the L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate and Gold Challenge. This trip probably stretches him due to his pulling antic, but he was flying from last under Richard Fourie in both of the aforementioned Grade 1s and this is the first time he has tried further than a mile. This race often favours fresh horses so the highly regarded Table Bay has to be considered too. His mile form now looks excellent and although he has to prove he stays further he will be out to prove a point having been left out of the Gold Challenge field. The Grade 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge winner Deo Juvente comes in fresh too. It’s MY Turn has a tough task on paper, but this is his third run of the SA Champions Season and he could be a dark horse. Matador Man is talented and relatively unexposed and is another outsider who could surprise.
In the first leg of the PA the two-year-old Touch Of Magic looks very classy and could make it two wins from two. The back up is Chamber Maid, who is suited to this trip and is well drawn.
The first leg of the Pick 6 over 1000m is a tough race, but the two-year-old Ishnana has excellent cruising speed and is selected. He will hopefully jump better than he did last time. Lil Red Rooster should go close from a good draw and Bonnie Dawn can feature if having more luck than last time. Varbration is knocking on the door, Cathedral County should have benefitted from his last run, Swakopmund and Gee Whizz have exceptional early pace and Surf’s Up won well last time, so it is an ultra tough leg.
It doesn’t get easier in the Listed Umngeni over the same trip, although Lloyd’s Legacy reproduced his “unbelievable” homework on the course last time when a cornell collar was introduced, so he can follow up from pole position in a race with a lot of pace in it. Hashtag Strat has high cruising speed and should be right there and of the closers Rodney is the choice for third ahead of Attenborough and Isca.
The Listed Darley Arabian over 1600m is also competitive but MacDuff and Nebula are the stand outs.
The fifth leg of the Pick 6 is the Grade 3 Gold Bracelet over 2000m and Nightingale is the class act having finished tie fourth in the July. However, Star Express is weighted to reverse form with her from both the Paddock Stakes over 1800m and the Majorca over 1600m and she has a plum draw. Bella Sonata is the best weighted horse on official merit ratings. Premier Dance and Captain Gambler could be threats too.
The last leg is tough because most of the fancied horses are drawn wide. Kapen Pride is a Silvano half-brother to Bulleting Home and is crying out for this trip, but his wide draw is a concern as he was a bit keen early last time. Brighteyebushytail, a Dynasty full brother to a horse who won third time out over 2000m, will relish the step up in trip and is well drawn and Storm Ruler, Lucky At Last, Roy’s Kaitrina and Eccelerate have to be considered too.
By David Thiselton
South favours the soft side
PUBLISHED: July 28, 2017
Glen Kotzen trained South Side will be ridden by Karl Zechner at Kenilworth tomorrow and will be one to watch in the Champagne Stakes…
South Side and Karl Zechner can give Glen Kotzen his fourth Champagne Stakes in nine seasons at Kenilworth tomorrow.
This improving filly with the bad knees has won four of her last five starts and she was most impressive when making every metre in a conditions plate here three weeks ago. The snag is that this, along with all her four previous wins, was over 1 000m.
Indeed Kotzen said afterwards that he thought it was probably her best trip and tomorrow she has another furlong to travel, on rain-softened ground into the bargain.
“She loves the soft,” says the three-year-old’s trainer, seemingly negating the latter doubt, “and Richard Fourie doesn’t think the trip is going to be a problem. He reckons she is a natural.”
Kotzen also runs last month’s 14-1 course and distance winner Anneline but this one surely has little chance on ratings. The stand-out from that point of view is A Time To Dream who comes out 3kg (two and a half lengths) superior to South Side and even more above all the others.
She failed to last home over the 1 800m of the Final Fling last Saturday and, although she has twice won over 1 400m this season, she has not won – or even raced – over tomorrow’s trip for more than two years.
“It’s not a strong race and she is coming towards the end of her career,” says Justin Snaith, explaining why he is running her. “In the soft conditions this 1 200m will be like a 1 400m and I do think she can be in the money.”
Varumba and Felicity Flyer (third best on adjusted ratings) are both well held on South Side’s last run although Greg Cheyne’s mount failed to run up to her best in that race.
Hanabi won the Olympic Duel over this trip and her last run is best ignored because she threw away her chance by fighting for her head, while Love To Boogie may also be a little better than her most recent run would suggest.
By Michael Clower
PUBLISHED: July 28, 2017
Podcast for the weekends racing and tips for the Champions Cup on Saturday and The Gold Cup on Sunday…
Greyville Saturday July 29 tips and suggested bets by Warren Lenferna
R1 (6) Making Miracles (10) The Matador (8) Roy’s Riviera
R2 (1) Aquila Warrior (4) Coys (11) The Byzantine
R3 (4) Touch Of Magic (8) Chamber Maid (10) Lolita Delago
R4 (3) Lil Red Rooster (9) Ishnana (6) Cathedral County
R5 (8) Lloyd’s Legacy (2) Effortless Reward (1) Attenborough
R6 (4) Nebula (8) Macduff (6) Prince Of Wales
R7 (10) Bela-Bela (1) Captain America (2) Marinaresco
R8 (1) Nightingale (3) Bella Sonata (7) Persian Rug
R9 (9) Lucky At Last (14) Kapen Pride (13) Brighteyebushytail
Leg 1: 4 x 8
Leg 2: 3 x 9 x 6
Leg 3: 8 x 2 x 1
Leg 4: 4 x 8
Leg 5: 10 x 1 x 2
Leg 6: 1
Leg 7: 9 x 14 x 13
PICK 6 (R768)
Leg 1: 3 x 9 x 6 x 5
Leg 2: 8 x 2 x 1 x 4
Leg 3: 4 x 8 x 6 x 7
Leg 4: 10 x 1 x 2
Leg 5: 1
Leg 6: 9 x 14 x 13 x 7
Leg 1: 8 x 2 x 1 x 4
Leg 2: 4 x 8 x 6 x 7
Leg 3: 10 x 1 x 2
Leg 4: 1
Race 8: 1
Race 7: 12
Greyville Sunday July 30 tips and suggested bets by Andrew Harrison
R1 (12) White Winter (5) Flamboyant (1) Diamonds Forever
R2 (8) Damaraland (10) Trip Queens (2) Icy Spirit
R3 (4) Rock My Soul (2) Gat Henshaw (3) Opera Royal
R4 (11) Tsessebe (2) Neptune’s Rain (12) Virga
R5 (1) Desert Rhythm (9) Lady In Black (4) Frederico’s Dream
R6 (3) Captain And Master (1) Ancestry (9) Monks Hood
R7 (16) Kinaan (7) Royal Badge (1) Krambambuli
R8 (3) Al Mariachi (2) So Var (6) Sniper Shot
R9 (3) The Great One (10) New Fort (6) Night Circus
R10 (6) Liquid Rainbow (5) Calabash (8) Selvan’s Jet
Leg 1: 4 x 2 x 3
Leg 2: 11 x 2
Leg 3: 1 x 9 x 4
Leg 4: 3
Leg 5: 16 x 7 x 1
Leg 6: 3 x 2
Leg 7: 3
PICK 6 (R640)
Leg 1: 11 x 2
Leg 2: 1 x 9 x 4 x 3
Leg 3: 3 x 1
Leg 4: 16 x 7 x 1 x 4 x 14
Leg 5: 3 x 2
Leg 6: 3 x 10 x 6 x 11
Leg 1: 1 x 9 x 4 x 3
Leg 2: 3 x 1
Leg 3: 16 x 7 x 1 x 4 x 14
Leg 4: 3 x 2
Listen to The Way We Argue – Ep 117 [July 28 – July 30]
SA Racing App podcast featuring Warren Lenferna and Andrew Harrison…
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