Dean Kannemeyer has more winners with his Durban string than with the yard at Milnerton these days but Joseph Jagger should make the winner’s box in the opening mile maiden at Durbanville today, particularly with Keagan de Melo flying down to ride him.
The Ideal World colt is a well bred sort and, although one of only two juveniles taking on three-year-olds, he finished well in good to soft last time (only his second start) in a manner that suggests he can beat the older horses. His current price of around 8-10 is pretty miserly but he just might start at slightly more generous odds when the on-course punters cast around for better-priced alternatives..
The obvious danger is the Justin Snaith runner Peter Paul Rubens, the 2-1 second favourite. Forget his last run – he stumbled shortly after the start and was returning not striding out behind. He went close in a reasonable maiden on his previous start.
First time out of the maidens is a traditional no-no for punters but it could be worth making an exception with Silver Dazzle in the Betting World Handicap (race four)- particularly as odds of 11-2 look particularly attractive.
The Andre Nel runner was having her fifth start when she tackled a mile fillies maiden at Kenilworth just over five weeks ago and she led a furlong out to win every bit as comfortably as the three-length verdict would suggest. She was rated 63 going into the race and the handicappers have assessed her only three points higher for this race.
What is more, the going last time was good to soft – the sort of underfoot conditions that she may well encounter here – and Andre Nel is having a tremendous season with 74 winners so far and ninth on the national log while 149-winner Greg Cheyne has only four above him in the jockeys’ lists. You could argue that Kawakami (7-2) and 5-1 shots Indian Song and Blush Scarlet have stronger claims but I don’t think so.
The Play Soccer 6 Maiden 35 minutes later looks a toss-up between It’s My Life and Duntoche with the verdict going to the former for the sole (and rather unsatisfactory) reason that Duntoche is a four-year-old who has already run 16 times without winning. She is rated 3.5kg behind the Brett Crawford runner but her recent form looks just as good and Fayd’Herbe rides.
Deposition had Winter Shadow four lengths behind over 1 800m on good to soft at Kenilworth last time, he stays 2 500m and so should confirm the form in the 2 400m Tabonline.co.za Maiden. But don’t completely ignore Nel’s Head Boy.
By Michael Clower