Twist Of Fate is well-nigh impossible to oppose in the Tellytrack.com Pinnacle Stakes at Durbanville tomorrow but punters should hold fire until such time as they are sure that the horse is going to run.
The colt was the only one declared without a jockey on Monday and I was unable to contact Joey Ramsden on Tuesday or again yesterday morning. But he often prefers to scratch a horse if he can’t find a rider he considers suitable – and this one is the stable star.
He has only been unplaced once in 16 starts and has earned over R3 million. Last season he won the Cape Classic over tomorrow’s trip as well as the Politician and the KRA Guineas. He was second in the Cape Guineas, CTS 1600 and Daily News while he was also third in the Vodacom Durban July and the Concorde.
Just as much to the point he has 5kg in hand on adjusted ratings. True, he is drawn eight out of 12 and has not raced for nearly three months but neither should stop him.
He was trading at a generous-looking 15-10 yesterday, with original main market rival Charles drifting from 9-2 to 6-1, but the Brett Crawford runner is also having his first run of the season. Furthermore he is badly drawn and needs further.
If the favourite does not run then Sacred Arrow could be the best bet. His price will, of course, shorten significantly from his present 11-2 but this is his trip, he is well drawn and has had an outing. “He should go well,” says Candice Bass-Robinson. “He needed his run when seventh (beaten less than three lengths) in the Matchem but he would have been a bit closer with a decent draw.”
Star Chestnut is a big price at 18-1 for a Snaith-Fourie runner, particularly with the combination in such hot form, but he was only tenth in the Matchem.
Keagan de Melo, who rides Charles, could have his work cut out to overcome the widest draw of all in the TAB Telebet Conditions Plate but Star Fighter has the most appealing recent form as she was fifth in the Diana. Unfortunately much of the value has gone with her price shortening from 4-1 to 5-2.
Duchess Of Bourbon (Snaith/Fourie) was the original favourite and, while she won the Winter Oaks, that was over 600m further than this and she is held by the selection on previous Stormsvlei Mile form.
By Michael Clower