Elusive Trader can defy joint top weight and beat his five older rivals in the Play Soccer Handicap at Durbanville tomorrow – and recent form suggests his chance is better than the 3-1 being offered by the bookmakers.
Greg Ennion’s charge, who has already earned R1 million more than his R300 000 purchase price, was raised six points for his second in the CTS 1200 but he ran above his new rating when four and a half lengths seventh of 14 to Kasimir in the Diadem and Sandile Mbhele’s 1.5kg claim is an added bonus.
The gelding has been to Durbanville before – he very nearly upset Pleasedtomeetyou in the Sophomore. You could argue that he needs a furlong further – he has only run over tomorrow’s trip on his first two starts (he won both) but at 3-1 you can’t have everything.
The one preferred by World Sports Betting (and probably by the other layers too when they post their prices) is the hat-trick-seeking Bwana who is 11-10 favourite but he has also been racing over further than this.
Aldo Domeyer’s best prospects – or at least the shortest priced of them -are for Andre Nel in the last two races but he can take races two and four for Candice Bass-Robinson and both are at more attractive odds.
Scottish Ally (33-10) was taking on hot company in a winner’s race won by the Grade 1-aimed Vandah’s Spirit on debut and ran a creditable fourth. That run suggests she can beat her six opponents in the TAB Telebet Juvenile Plate, the most promising of whom are 13-10 favourite Ibra (made a noise when running well first time, according to both the vet and her jockey) and 9-2 chance Lumiere who overcame a slow start on debut. Cyber Blossom (9-2) has been running consistently well and should again get into the shake-up.
Cradleofgratitude, Domeyer’s mount in the Tellytrack.com Maiden (race five), is available at 9-2 despite beating all except a potentially smart sort in Scribner here three weeks ago. True, he is a four-year-old without a win (definitely a bad sign!) but he still makes the most appeal.
The opening Juvenile Plate is a tricky affair but Kamadeva looks too short at 16-10 and I prefer stable companion Mister Vargus at 33-10. The danger is probably Domeyer’s mount Minnesota Dream (3-1) whose previous win means he shoulders a 3kg penalty.
Bitter Lemon is 2-1 favourite for race four and should be able to reverse last time’s placings with Alfred’s Girl as Greg Cheyne’s mount came from a wide draw that day.
By Michael Clower